Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-12
All Games Summary
Total Picks
47
Final results
47
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
4
Pending
0
Accuracy
91.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (47)
North Florida (5-18) 66, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 99 [33] 58-97 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 155.0		 Tennessee (97.1%)
Oakland (14-11) 45, Houston #8 (20-2) 78 [33] 61-86 ✗ MAE: 12.3
BET OVER 137.8		 Houston (97.0%)
Binghamton (5-18) 70, Georgetown (13-10) 83 [13] 65-86 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET OVER 141.5		 Georgetown (96.8%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 58, Texas (14-9) 93 [35] 66-90 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 158.8		 Texas (96.8%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 61, VCU (17-6) 78 [17] 58-89 ✓ MAE: 6.7
O/U: 147.5		 VCU (96.7%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 70, Indiana (15-8) 101 [31] 65-92 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 165.5		 Indiana (96.6%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 64, NC State (17-6) 110 [46] 63-86 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 155.5		 NC State (96.6%)
Coppin State (3-21) 50, South Florida (15-8) 100 [50] 60-97 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 167.8		 South Florida (96.4%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 56, Hawai'i (16-5) 88 [32] 51-84 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 151.0		 Hawai'i (95.8%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 79, Colorado State (12-10) 93 [14] 73-85 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 166.5		 Colorado State (95.6%)
Penn State-Shenango (0-4) 51, Akron (19-4) 109 [58] 73-92 ✗ MAE: 19.9 Akron (95.4%)
Westminster (UT) (0-2) 60, Utah Valley (16-6) 91 [31] 70-86 ✓ MAE: 8.0 Utah Valley (95.4%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 54, VMI (6-18) 106 [52] 79-94 ✗ MAE: 18.6 VMI (94.4%)
American University (13-11) 67, George Washington (13-10) 107 [40] 62-87 ✗ MAE: 12.7
BET UNDER 151.0		 George Washington (92.6%)
Montana State (13-10) 68, Stanford (14-9) 77 [9] 68-81 ✓ MAE: 2.0
O/U: 148.2		 Stanford (88.9%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 61, South Carolina (11-12) 81 [20] 62-77 ✓ MAE: 2.6
O/U: 137.2		 South Carolina (88.7%)
Portland State (15-6) 70, San Francisco (14-11) 80 [10] 69-85 ✓ MAE: 3.0
O/U: 154.0		 San Francisco (88.7%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 66, Pacific (15-10) 69 [3] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 141.0		 Pacific (84.4%)
Weber State (11-12) 73, Utah State (19-3) 83 [10] 71-96 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 156.8		 Utah State (82.8%)
Little Rock (9-14) 49, Marquette (8-15) 89 [40] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 13.6
BET UNDER 155.5		 Marquette (82.7%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 62, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 92 [30] 69-101 ✓ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 169.8		 Vanderbilt (82.1%)
Webster (0-2) 41, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 87 [46] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 18.2 Southeast Missouri State (81.7%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 67, Oklahoma State (16-6) 94 [27] 76-100 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 169.0		 Oklahoma State (81.6%)
James Madison (11-13) 72, Longwood (13-12) 82 [10] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 0.9
O/U: 151.2		 Longwood (81.1%) DOG
South Dakota State (11-13) 69, Oregon (8-14) 83 [14] 66-86 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET OVER 145.5		 Oregon (78.7%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 67, Seattle U (15-9) 94 [27] 68-84 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 149.0		 Seattle U (78.2%)
Bradley (16-8) 67, UT Martin (18-5) 78 [11] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 144.5		 Bradley (78.1%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 74, South Dakota (13-12) 89 [15] 77-75 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 164.2		 South Dakota (75.9%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 63, East Tennessee State (17-7) 75 [12] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 142.5		 East Tennessee State (75.2%)
Saint Joseph's (15-8) 59, Virginia Tech (16-7) 94 [35] 69-81 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 157.8		 Virginia Tech (74.1%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 81, Nevada (16-7) 86 [5] 68-78 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 152.0		 Nevada (73.3%)
Elon (13-10) 89, Marshall (15-8) 96 [7] 76-85 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET OVER 155.5		 Marshall (71.6%)
Siena (16-7) 66, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 75 [9] 64-76 ✓ MAE: 1.6
O/U: 139.2		 St. Bonaventure (71.4%)
Evansville (5-18) 72, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 77 [5] 65-72 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 140.5		 Evansville (71.2%)
Idaho (13-9) 74, San Diego (10-15) 78 [4] 73-78 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET UNDER 156.5		 San Diego (70.8%) DOG
Minnesota (11-12) 60, Missouri (15-7) 83 [23] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 158.8		 Missouri (69.7%)
Brown (7-13) 77, Boston University (9-15) 90 [13] 64-75 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET OVER 130.5		 Boston University (67.1%)
Nicholls (10-13) 63, Valparaiso (11-12) 68 [5] 68-76 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 144.5		 Valparaiso (65.8%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 87, Tulsa (20-3) 88 [1] 76-77 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 160.2		 Tulsa (63.8%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 75, Bryant (7-15) 82 [7] 71-69 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 150.8		 Bryant (62.3%)
Utah Tech (13-11) 75, Manhattan (9-15) 79 [4] 72-83 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 158.2		 Utah Tech (62.1%)
North Texas (12-11) 64, Oregon State (13-12) 66 [2] 64-69 ✓ MAE: 1.4
O/U: 134.5		 Oregon State (58.7%)
UTSA (4-18) 69, Texas State (14-11) 80 [11] 70-82 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET OVER 147.5		 Texas State (58.5%)
Fresno State (11-11) 73, UC San Diego (15-8) 78 [5] 74-71 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 149.2		 Fresno State (55.3%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 55, Canisius (8-16) 58 [3] 63-69 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 135.5		 Canisius (54.0%) DOG
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 71, Western Michigan (8-14) 83 [12] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 161.5		 Western Michigan (52.7%) DOG
Texas Southern (6-14) 90, Samford (11-12) 93 [3] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 16.5
BET UNDER 153.5		 Samford (51.8%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
47
Final results
47
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
4
Pending
0
Accuracy
91.5%
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
29
ML Win Rate
79.3%
ML Profit
$19
ML ROI
6.5%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$110
ROI
110.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$47
ROI
46.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
6
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$466
ROI
77.6%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$212
ROI
70.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
24
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
15
ATS Win Rate
37.5%
Spread Profit
$-68
Spread ROI
-28.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-14.9%
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
38
O/U Wins
22
O/U Losses
16
O/U Win Rate
57.9%
O/U Profit
$40
O/U ROI
10.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+5.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
4
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$364
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$364
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
James Madison 72 @ Longwood 82 Longwood (81.1%) DOG Longwood +1.2 +9.4 +8.2 +10.0 COVERED
Southern Indiana 74 @ South Dakota 89 South Dakota (75.9%) South Dakota -7.5 +8.9 -1.4 +15.0 COVERED
Eastern Washington 67 @ Seattle U 94 Seattle U (78.2%) Seattle U -8.2 +7.0 +15.2 +27.0 COVERED
Idaho 74 @ San Diego 78 San Diego (70.8%) DOG San Diego +1.5 +6.8 +5.3 +4.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$110
ROI
110.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Purdue Fort Wayne 71, Western Michigan 83 [12] Western Michigan 52.7% +110 +7.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$47
ROI
46.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Indiana 74, South Dakota 89 [15] South Dakota 75.9% -215 +10.2% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
6
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$466
ROI
77.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Nicholls 63, Valparaiso 68 [5] Valparaiso 65.8% -125 +11.9% WIN
Dartmouth 75, Bryant 82 [7] Bryant 62.3% -117 +11.0% WIN
Southern Indiana 74, South Dakota 89 [15] South Dakota 75.9% -215 +10.2% WIN
UTSA 69, Texas State 80 [11] Texas State 58.5% -115 +8.0% WIN
Purdue Fort Wayne 71, Western Michigan 83 [12] Western Michigan 52.7% +110 +7.0% WIN
Brown 77, Boston University 90 [13] Boston University 67.1% -175 +5.7% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$212
ROI
70.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Nicholls 63, Valparaiso 68 [5] Valparaiso 65.8% -125 +11.9% WIN
Dartmouth 75, Bryant 82 [7] Bryant 62.3% -117 +11.0% WIN
Southern Indiana 74, South Dakota 89 [15] South Dakota 75.9% -215 +10.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Weber State @ Utah State Weber State 17.2% +2500 +13.5% LOSS
Little Rock @ Marquette Little Rock 17.3% +2000 +12.7% LOSS
South Dakota State @ Oregon South Dakota State 21.3% +1250 +14.2% LOSS