Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-16
All Games Summary
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
24
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (31)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 61, Indiana (15-8) 69 [8] 64-85 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 157.5		 Indiana (97.3%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 55, Cincinnati (11-11) 72 [17] 55-79 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 145.5		 Cincinnati (96.7%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 75, Wake Forest (11-11) 109 [34] 65-87 ✗ MAE: 15.9
BET UNDER 164.8		 Wake Forest (96.7%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 69, Oklahoma State (16-6) 85 [16] 70-86 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET OVER 153.5		 Oklahoma State (95.8%)
Kentucky Christian (0-4) 51, Morehead State (12-11) 121 [70] 70-85 ✗ MAE: 27.4 Morehead State (94.2%)
Charlotte (13-10) 76, Virginia Tech (16-7) 84 [8] 66-85 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 145.5		 Virginia Tech (93.7%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 82, Western Kentucky (12-10) 95 [13] 75-83 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 167.5		 Western Kentucky (87.5%)
Memphis (10-11) 78, UNLV (10-12) 92 [14] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 163.2		 Memphis (82.7%)
Akron (19-4) 79, Purdue #12 (18-4) 97 [18] 72-95 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 163.5		 Purdue (81.7%)
Wagner (7-13) 70, UMBC (13-8) 71 [1] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 140.5		 UMBC (77.7%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 77, Massachusetts (15-9) 84 [7] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 144.5		 Massachusetts (75.6%)
Stetson (8-15) 65, Western Carolina (8-14) 76 [11] 73-76 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 155.5		 Western Carolina (73.9%)
Miami (17-5) 68, Florida #17 (16-6) 82 [14] 75-85 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 171.2		 Florida (73.8%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 63, Ohio State (14-7) 64 [1] 67-81 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 156.5		 Ohio State (71.9%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 78, South Dakota (13-12) 83 [5] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 172.5		 South Dakota (67.3%)
Wright State (15-9) 72, Kent State (17-6) 76 [4] 74-84 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 156.5		 Kent State (67.1%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 80, Illinois State (15-8) 82 [2] 76-75 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 142.0		 Illinois State (66.0%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 77, Samford (11-12) 84 [7] 81-76 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 151.5		 Samford (65.3%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 62, Sacramento State (9-13) 64 [2] 68-70 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 151.0		 Sacramento State (64.3%)
Marist (15-7) 54, Harvard (12-9) 56 [2] 60-72 ✗ MAE: 10.8
O/U: 130.5		 Marist (62.9%)
Bryant (7-15) 50, Valparaiso (11-12) 68 [18] 58-74 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 144.0		 Valparaiso (62.9%)
Radford (13-12) 82, Cleveland State (10-14) 87 [5] 82-79 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 162.5		 Radford (62.8%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 82, Fairfield (14-10) 85 [3] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 134.2		 Fairfield (60.4%)
Lindenwood (14-10) 65, Alabama A&M (12-10) 74 [9] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 149.8		 Alabama A&M (58.9%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 67, Colorado State (12-10) 80 [13] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 151.5		 Colorado State (55.8%)
Troy (16-8) 85, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 94 [9] 83-78 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 157.0		 Troy (55.7%)
Auburn (14-8) 72, Houston #8 (20-2) 73 [1] 78-75 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 140.5		 Houston (55.0%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 77, App State (16-9) 85 [8] 76-67 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 140.5		 Dartmouth (52.7%) DOG
Hampton (10-13) 61, Holy Cross (8-16) 67 [6] 63-67 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 149.0		 Hampton (52.4%) DOG
Maine (5-18) 64, Quinnipiac (15-9) 70 [6] 67-70 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 137.2		 Quinnipiac (50.5%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 89, South Florida (15-8) 108 [19] 82-82 ✗ MAE: 16.1
BET UNDER 176.8		 Kennesaw State (50.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
24
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.4%
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
26
ML Win Rate
73.1%
ML Profit
$40
ML ROI
15.2%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-241
ROI
-60.3%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
21
ATS Wins
10
ATS Losses
11
ATS Win Rate
47.6%
Spread Profit
$-19
Spread ROI
-9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-4.8%
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
27
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
15
O/U Win Rate
44.4%
O/U Profit
$-41
O/U ROI
-15.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Wagner 70 @ UMBC 71 UMBC (77.7%) UMBC -6.5 +6.6 +13.1 +1.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Dartmouth 77, App State 85 [8] Dartmouth 52.7% +105 +6.0% LOSS
Hampton 61, Holy Cross 67 [6] Hampton 52.4% +185 +18.7% LOSS
Kennesaw State 89, South Florida 108 [19] Kennesaw State 50.2% +195 +17.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-241
ROI
-60.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hampton 61, Holy Cross 67 [6] Hampton 52.4% +185 +18.7% LOSS
Kennesaw State 89, South Florida 108 [19] Kennesaw State 50.2% +195 +17.6% LOSS
Western Michigan 78, South Dakota 83 [5] South Dakota 67.3% -170 +6.6% WIN
Dartmouth 77, App State 85 [8] Dartmouth 52.7% +105 +6.0% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hampton 61, Holy Cross 67 [6] Hampton 52.4% +185 +18.7% LOSS
Kennesaw State 89, South Florida 108 [19] Kennesaw State 50.2% +195 +17.6% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Akron @ Purdue Akron 18.3% +1800 +13.2% LOSS
Houston @ Auburn Auburn 45.0% +270 +19.2% LOSS
Stetson @ Western Carolina Stetson 26.1% +512 +10.6% LOSS