Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-18
All Games Summary
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
52
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (61)
Rider (3-18) 65, Texas (14-9) 99 [34] 59-89 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 144.5		 Texas (97.3%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 48, UCLA (16-7) 79 [31] 57-92 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET OVER 146.8		 UCLA (97.2%)
Navy (18-6) 61, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 73 [12] 58-81 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 160.2		 North Carolina (97.2%)
Chicago State (2-19) 54, Minnesota (11-12) 66 [12] 57-81 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 145.0		 Minnesota (97.0%)
Winthrop (17-8) 83, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 84 [1] 74-97 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 168.5		 Arkansas (97.0%)
Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 70, Iowa (17-5) 99 [29] 60-84 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 147.5		 Iowa (97.0%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 60, SMU (15-7) 106 [46] 66-98 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 168.8		 SMU (96.7%)
Austin Peay (16-6) 65, Ole Miss (11-11) 72 [7] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 146.0		 Ole Miss (96.7%)
UT Martin (18-5) 73, Florida State (10-12) 87 [14] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 165.0		 Florida State (96.5%)
Louisiana (8-16) 66, Stanford (14-9) 93 [27] 58-77 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 138.5		 Stanford (96.4%)
Monmouth (11-12) 73, Syracuse (13-10) 78 [5] 60-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 145.5		 Syracuse (96.4%)
Alcorn State (4-17) 81, LSU (14-8) 107 [26] 59-92 ✗ MAE: 18.6
BET UNDER 155.8		 LSU (96.3%)
Southern (9-13) 93, Washington (12-11) 99 [6] 68-87 ✗ MAE: 18.5
BET UNDER 157.8		 Washington (96.3%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 57, California (17-6) 67 [10] 60-75 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 145.5		 California (96.1%)
New Hampshire (8-13) 66, Providence (10-13) 98 [32] 60-87 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 161.8		 Providence (96.0%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 62, DePaul (12-11) 93 [31] 63-87 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 155.2		 DePaul (95.9%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 57, Northern Iowa (14-9) 70 [13] 58-79 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 146.8		 Northern Iowa (95.7%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 64, San Francisco (14-11) 84 [20] 60-83 ✓ MAE: 2.5
O/U: 144.5		 San Francisco (95.2%)
New Haven (10-12) 45, Seton Hall (16-7) 68 [23] 51-73 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 129.8		 Seton Hall (94.6%)
Southwestern Christian (0-3) 70, UTSA (4-18) 103 [33] 75-86 ✗ MAE: 11.0 UTSA (94.3%)
Fort Lauderdale (0-3) 80, Florida International (11-11) 104 [24] 77-86 ✗ MAE: 10.4 Florida International (94.1%)
Idaho State (10-13) 55, Santa Clara (20-5) 64 [9] 71-87 ✗ MAE: 19.5
BET OVER 141.8		 Santa Clara (92.3%)
Army (10-14) 73, Cornell (10-10) 86 [13] 79-87 ✓ MAE: 3.5
O/U: 164.2		 Cornell (91.7%)
American University (13-11) 71, Rutgers (9-14) 80 [9] 65-75 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 143.8		 Rutgers (91.4%)
Longwood (13-12) 82, Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 83 [1] 65-79 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 138.5		 Longwood (91.3%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 57, George Mason (20-3) 79 [22] 60-81 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 136.5		 George Mason (89.6%)
Little Rock (9-14) 68, Murray State (17-7) 89 [21] 70-85 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 153.8		 Murray State (89.4%)
San Diego State (16-6) 107, Troy (16-8) 108 [1] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 31.3
BET OVER 136.5		 San Diego State (88.7%)
NJIT (11-12) 43, Drexel (12-11) 75 [32] 59-78 ✗ MAE: 9.3
O/U: 138.5		 Drexel (88.2%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 57, California Baptist (16-6) 80 [23] 63-77 ✓ MAE: 4.7
O/U: 142.0		 California Baptist (87.9%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 77, Utah (9-13) 85 [8] 75-80 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 159.5		 Utah (87.7%)
Nevada (16-7) 71, UC Davis (13-9) 75 [4] 65-80 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 144.5		 Nevada (85.7%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 62, Lehigh (10-14) 79 [17] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 151.2		 Lehigh (85.4%)
Hampton (10-13) 52, Boston College (9-13) 63 [11] 57-68 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 135.8		 Boston College (84.0%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 66, Georgia Tech (11-12) 68 [2] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 164.2		 Georgia Tech (83.0%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 78, Kent State (17-6) 93 [15] 72-89 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 161.5		 Kent State (82.0%)
Kansas #11 (17-5) 66, Duke #4 (21-1) 78 [12] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 148.5		 Duke (82.0%)
Radford (13-12) 58, South Carolina (11-12) 87 [29] 70-87 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET OVER 153.5		 South Carolina (81.9%)
Toccoa Falls (0-4) 67, North Carolina Central (8-12) 123 [56] 79-92 ✗ MAE: 21.5 North Carolina Central (80.9%)
Cheyney (PA) (0-2) 70, Delaware State (6-15) 88 [18] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 4.9 Delaware State (80.7%)
Montana (13-10) 81, Texas A&M (17-5) 86 [5] 75-95 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET OVER 164.0		 Texas A&M (79.7%)
Yale (16-4) 77, Rhode Island (13-9) 86 [9] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 8.8
O/U: 153.0		 Yale (78.5%)
East Carolina (7-15) 60, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 85 [25] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 145.5		 UNC Wilmington (74.4%)
Wichita State (14-9) 59, Boise State (14-9) 62 [3] 72-79 ✗ MAE: 15.2
O/U: 150.2		 Boise State (72.8%)
Central Penn (0-3) 62, Coppin State (3-21) 103 [41] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 17.2 Coppin State (72.8%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 69, Xavier (12-11) 99 [30] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 150.8		 Xavier (72.5%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 62, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 72 [10] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 157.8		 Detroit Mercy (70.7%)
New Orleans (11-13) 79, Pepperdine (6-18) 90 [11] 72-76 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 157.5		 Pepperdine (68.2%)
Kentucky (16-7) 66, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 83 [17] 74-78 ✗ MAE: 10.4
O/U: 152.5		 Kentucky (66.0%)
Princeton (8-14) 69, Iona (14-9) 89 [20] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 154.5		 Iona (65.8%)
Grambling (10-11) 68, San Diego (10-15) 78 [10] 70-71 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 149.0		 San Diego (64.6%)
Boston University (9-15) 49, Columbia (14-7) 54 [5] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 22.6
BET OVER 144.8		 Columbia (64.2%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 49, Brown (7-13) 68 [19] 70-65 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 141.8		 Brown (63.5%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 70, Delaware (6-16) 81 [11] 69-63 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 137.5		 Delaware (63.5%)
Evansville (5-18) 76, UT Arlington (14-7) 84 [8] 68-71 ✗ MAE: 10.7
O/U: 138.8		 Evansville (59.1%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 49, Texas State (14-11) 63 [14] 67-74 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 138.5		 Texas State (56.5%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 91, Charleston Southern (11-13) 103 [12] 83-91 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 188.0		 Charleston Southern (54.2%) DOG
Morgan State (9-13) 73, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 79 [6] 72-79 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 161.5		 Morgan State (52.0%) DOG
Vermont (14-9) 90, Buffalo (14-9) 94 [4] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET OVER 141.5		 Buffalo (51.0%) DOG
Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 78, Fresno State (11-11) 80 [2] 70-72 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Fresno State (50.9%) DOG
Towson (13-11) 75, James Madison (11-13) 81 [6] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 7.3
O/U: 140.5		 Towson (50.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
52
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
66
Avg Confidence
84.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0817
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
45
ML Win Rate
82.2%
ML Profit
$21
ML ROI
4.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$282
ROI
70.6%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
6
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
85.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$371
ROI
53.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
30
ATS Wins
18
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
60.0%
Spread Profit
$44
Spread ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
47
O/U Wins
23
O/U Losses
24
O/U Win Rate
48.9%
O/U Profit
$-31
O/U ROI
-6.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-3.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
3
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$173
ROI
43.2%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-18
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Eastern Michigan 72 @ Detroit Mercy 62 Detroit Mercy (70.7%) Detroit Mercy -1.5 +7.7 +9.2 -10.0 FAILED
East Carolina 60 @ UNC Wilmington 85 UNC Wilmington (74.4%) UNC Wilmington -6.5 +7.2 +13.7 +25.0 COVERED
Eastern Kentucky 78 @ Kent State 93 Kent State (82.0%) Kent State -10.0 +6.8 +16.8 +15.0 COVERED
Radford 58 @ South Carolina 87 South Carolina (81.9%) South Carolina -10.2 +6.6 +16.9 +29.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$282
ROI
70.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
IU Indianapolis 91, Charleston Southern 103 [12] Charleston Southern 54.2% +115 +9.5% WIN
Morgan State 73, North Carolina A&T 79 [6] Morgan State 52.0% +125 +8.2% LOSS
Vermont 90, Buffalo 94 [4] Buffalo 51.0% +132 +9.5% WIN
Stephen F. Austin 78, Fresno State 80 [2] Fresno State 50.9% +135 +9.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
6
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
85.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$371
ROI
53.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Stephen F. Austin 78, Fresno State 80 [2] Fresno State 50.9% +135 +9.8% WIN
Vermont 90, Buffalo 94 [4] Buffalo 51.0% +132 +9.5% WIN
IU Indianapolis 91, Charleston Southern 103 [12] Charleston Southern 54.2% +115 +9.5% WIN
Morgan State 73, North Carolina A&T 79 [6] Morgan State 52.0% +125 +8.2% LOSS
New Orleans 79, Pepperdine 90 [11] Pepperdine 68.2% -182 +6.0% WIN
NJIT 43, Drexel 75 [32] Drexel 88.2% -675 +5.4% WIN
St. Francis (PA) 62, Lehigh 79 [17] Lehigh 85.4% -537 +5.0% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$925
ROI
308.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Montana @ Texas A&M Montana 20.3% +1025 +11.8% LOSS
Troy @ San Diego State Troy 11.3% +1125 +3.5% WIN
Wichita State @ Boise State Wichita State 27.2% +390 +7.8% LOSS