Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-20
All Games Summary
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
29
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (35)
Western Michigan (8-14) 58, Ohio State (14-7) 91 [33] 58-91 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 159.5		 Ohio State (97.4%)
South Dakota (13-12) 68, Missouri (15-7) 102 [34] 70-90 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 172.5		 Missouri (97.3%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 71, Oklahoma (11-12) 95 [24] 61-94 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 166.0		 Oklahoma (97.2%)
Rider (3-18) 45, Houston #8 (20-2) 91 [46] 47-83 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 134.8		 Houston (97.0%)
Lindenwood (14-10) 53, Indiana (15-8) 73 [20] 60-85 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 156.0		 Indiana (96.9%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 74, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 109 [35] 60-97 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET UNDER 164.5		 Vanderbilt (96.9%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 60, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 89 [29] 59-85 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 157.5		 Tennessee (96.8%)
Chicago State (2-19) 54, Iowa (17-5) 93 [39] 50-90 ✓ MAE: 3.0
O/U: 142.0		 Iowa (96.7%)
Bucknell (8-16) 49, St. John's #22 (17-5) 97 [48] 55-85 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 158.0		 St. John's (96.4%)
Elon (13-10) 72, Miami (17-5) 99 [27] 72-94 ✓ MAE: 2.6
O/U: 164.2		 Miami (95.9%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 70, Marshall (15-8) 98 [28] 71-88 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 164.5		 Marshall (95.6%)
Nobel (0-7) 55, Montana State (13-10) 92 [37] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 12.4 Montana State (94.4%)
Troy (16-8) 106, USC (17-6) 107 [1] 78-89 ✗ MAE: 23.1
BET OVER 159.0		 USC (93.7%)
College Of Biblical Studies (0-9) 67, Houston Christian (8-15) 85 [18] 71-85 ✓ MAE: 2.1 Houston Christian (93.6%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 56, North Texas (12-11) 74 [18] 60-77 ✓ MAE: 3.3
O/U: 135.0		 North Texas (91.5%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 71, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 76 [5] 67-84 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 138.8		 Miami (OH) (90.7%)
Memphis (10-11) 71, Purdue #12 (18-4) 80 [9] 63-84 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 156.0		 Purdue (90.6%)
Utah (9-13) 85, Cal Poly (9-14) 92 [7] 79-91 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 166.8		 Utah (87.0%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 61, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 75 [14] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 146.8		 St. Bonaventure (83.1%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 81, Incarnate Word (10-13) 87 [6] 64-78 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 145.0		 Incarnate Word (80.6%)
Wake Forest (11-11) 83, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 84 [1] 76-86 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 160.5		 Texas Tech (79.7%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 94, Queens University (12-11) 101 [7] 80-89 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET OVER 150.5		 Queens University (74.1%)
Saint Joseph's (15-8) 85, UNLV (10-12) 99 [14] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 22.1
BET UNDER 162.0		 UNLV (69.9%)
UIC (13-11) 80, High Point (21-4) 90 [10] 78-77 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 157.2		 UIC (69.2%)
Pacific (15-10) 59, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 82 [23] 66-84 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 154.8		 Florida Atlantic (68.9%)
New Mexico (18-5) 72, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 84 [12] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 152.2		 New Mexico (68.6%)
Colgate (14-10) 94, Cornell (10-10) 95 [1] 76-88 ✗ MAE: 12.6
O/U: 162.8		 Cornell (67.3%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 67, UCF (17-5) 77 [10] 72-79 ✓ MAE: 3.7
O/U: 149.5		 UCF (67.2%) DOG
Brown (7-13) 70, Stony Brook (14-9) 80 [10] 62-71 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 136.2		 Stony Brook (65.1%)
Rice (10-13) 74, Tarleton State (11-11) 90 [16] 71-71 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 146.0		 Rice (64.0%)
Hawai'i (16-5) 76, Arizona State (12-11) 83 [7] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET OVER 144.5		 Hawai'i (60.7%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 66, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 90 [24] 78-77 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET OVER 146.2		 Central Michigan (60.4%)
Northeastern (6-15) 57, Princeton (8-14) 70 [13] 68-78 ✗ MAE: 10.0
O/U: 145.2		 Princeton (59.0%)
Long Island University (14-8) 53, Fordham (12-11) 69 [16] 64-75 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 145.2		 Fordham (58.7%)
Mississippi State (11-11) 77, Kansas State (10-12) 98 [21] 75-81 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 165.0		 Kansas State (52.0%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
29
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
34
Avg Confidence
87.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1031
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
19
ML Win Rate
73.7%
ML Profit
$6
ML ROI
3.2%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$123
ROI
122.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$63
ROI
20.8%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
24
ATS Wins
13
ATS Losses
11
ATS Win Rate
54.2%
Spread Profit
$8
Spread ROI
3.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.8%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
66.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2459
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
27
O/U Wins
16
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
59.3%
O/U Profit
$35
O/U ROI
13.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+6.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$123
ROI
122.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mississippi State 77, Kansas State 98 [21] Kansas State 52.0% +122 +8.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$63
ROI
20.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mississippi State 77, Kansas State 98 [21] Kansas State 52.0% +122 +8.8% WIN
Hawai'i 76, Arizona State 83 [7] Hawai'i 60.7% -125 +7.5% LOSS
UNC Greensboro 94, Queens University 101 [7] Queens University 74.1% -250 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$128
ROI
42.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Saint Joseph's @ UNLV Saint Joseph's 30.1% +340 +8.4% LOSS
High Point @ UIC High Point 30.8% +327 +8.5% WIN
Pacific @ Florida Atlantic Pacific 31.1% +292 +6.8% LOSS