Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-21
All Games Summary
Total Picks
72
Final results
72
Correct picks
55
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (72)
Presbyterian (11-13) 46, UCLA (16-7) 86 [40] 53-79 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 132.0		 UCLA (97.2%)
Niagara (6-17) 42, Duke #4 (21-1) 100 [58] 52-92 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 147.0		 Duke (97.1%)
Jackson State (6-16) 61, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 115 [54] 67-99 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 159.5		 Arkansas (97.1%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 46, Kentucky (16-7) 88 [42] 58-92 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 159.0		 Kentucky (97.1%)
Merrimack (14-9) 45, Florida #17 (16-6) 80 [35] 54-86 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 158.2		 Florida (96.8%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 56, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 84 [28] 54-86 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 152.5		 Michigan State (96.7%)
Louisiana (8-16) 43, Santa Clara (20-5) 80 [37] 58-82 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 139.5		 Santa Clara (96.2%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 67, California (17-6) 91 [24] 62-84 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 155.0		 California (96.1%)
Manhattan (9-15) 68, Texas A&M (17-5) 109 [41] 67-94 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 163.0		 Texas A&M (96.0%)
Omaha (12-12) 73, LSU (14-8) 99 [26] 66-90 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 165.2		 LSU (95.6%)
Erskine (0-2) 57, Wofford (16-8) 81 [24] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 6.7 Wofford (95.5%)
Fisk (0-4) 49, Belmont (21-3) 96 [47] 72-85 ✗ MAE: 16.9 Belmont (95.4%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 60, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 91 [31] 69-95 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 167.5		 Saint Louis (95.2%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 72, Grand Canyon (15-7) 85 [13] 60-82 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 147.2		 Grand Canyon (94.5%)
Colorado State (12-10) 81, Denver (9-15) 83 [2] 69-88 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET OVER 149.2		 Colorado State (94.5%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 72, Florida State (10-12) 98 [26] 77-88 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 175.2		 Florida State (94.3%)
Regent (0-2) 57, William & Mary (14-8) 104 [47] 74-90 ✗ MAE: 15.2 William & Mary (94.2%)
Nobel (0-7) 48, Utah Tech (13-11) 96 [48] 71-82 ✗ MAE: 18.6 Utah Tech (93.7%)
Green Bay (13-12) 67, Yale (16-4) 73 [6] 69-85 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 149.0		 Yale (93.6%)
Arkansas State (14-10) 69, SMU (15-7) 100 [31] 74-92 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 172.2		 SMU (90.3%)
UC Davis (13-9) 79, Colorado (13-10) 95 [16] 73-86 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 152.2		 Colorado (89.5%)
Rutgers (9-14) 54, Central Connecticut (11-10) 67 [13] 64-72 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 138.0		 Rutgers (89.2%)
Grambling (10-11) 59, California Baptist (16-6) 72 [13] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 144.8		 California Baptist (88.5%)
Army (10-14) 65, Marist (15-7) 76 [11] 61-77 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET OVER 133.0		 Marist (88.2%)
Morgan State (9-13) 56, Old Dominion (7-17) 88 [32] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 156.5		 Old Dominion (87.6%)
Georgia State (9-15) 58, South Dakota State (11-13) 105 [47] 68-82 ✗ MAE: 16.6
BET OVER 143.8		 South Dakota State (87.4%)
Iona (14-9) 75, Akron (19-4) 96 [21] 72-88 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 173.5		 Akron (84.5%)
East Carolina (7-15) 65, Charleston Southern (11-13) 77 [12] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 158.2		 East Carolina (84.5%)
Morehead State (12-11) 62, East Tennessee State (17-7) 77 [15] 62-75 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 144.2		 East Tennessee State (83.5%)
Stanford (14-9) 69, Seattle U (15-9) 77 [8] 65-76 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 152.2		 Stanford (82.2%)
Justice College (0-3) 51, Idaho State (10-13) 89 [38] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 13.2 Idaho State (81.1%)
UAlbany (7-16) 63, Siena (16-7) 73 [10] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 140.5		 Siena (80.4%)
UT Arlington (14-7) 67, Campbell (10-13) 71 [4] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 151.5		 UT Arlington (78.7%) DOG
Holy Cross (8-16) 66, Sacred Heart (10-14) 79 [13] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 152.2		 Sacred Heart (77.2%)
Austin Peay (16-6) 75, Tulsa (20-3) 84 [9] 74-85 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET OVER 148.8		 Tulsa (76.7%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 59, Northern Illinois (7-14) 76 [17] 62-77 ✗ MAE: 16.0
BET UNDER 149.0		 Loyola Chicago (75.5%)
Oregon State (13-12) 69, Evansville (5-18) 73 [4] 64-72 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 137.2		 Oregon State (74.9%)
Samford (11-12) 72, New Mexico State (11-11) 81 [9] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET OVER 145.5		 New Mexico State (74.7%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 85, Portland (11-14) 103 [18] 76-83 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET UNDER 163.5		 Portland (73.2%)
San Diego (10-15) 71, UC Riverside (8-15) 85 [14] 70-77 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 152.2		 San Diego (73.0%)
New Orleans (11-13) 76, Fresno State (11-11) 85 [9] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 155.0		 Fresno State (69.4%)
Boston College (9-13) 49, Davidson (13-9) 59 [10] 60-71 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 141.0		 Boston College (69.4%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 57, Canisius (8-16) 60 [3] 62-70 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 128.5		 Canisius (68.9%)
Tulane (13-9) 75, Utah State (19-3) 96 [21] 74-75 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 152.0		 Utah State (68.0%)
South Alabama (16-7) 72, UAB (14-8) 80 [8] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 2.1
O/U: 148.5		 UAB (67.2%)
Xavier (12-11) 77, Georgia (16-6) 78 [1] 83-80 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 165.5		 Georgia (67.1%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 64, Louisville #24 (16-6) 74 [10] 75-69 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 163.2		 Louisville (66.7%)
Little Rock (9-14) 56, Texas State (14-11) 65 [9] 65-72 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 131.5		 Texas State (65.4%)
Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 56, Purdue #12 (18-4) 86 [30] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 9.2
O/U: 153.8		 Purdue (64.5%)
Hampton (10-13) 60, Norfolk State (10-14) 62 [2] 62-66 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 133.5		 Norfolk State (62.6%)
Charlotte (13-10) 63, App State (16-9) 65 [2] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 132.8		 App State (62.6%)
West Virginia (14-8) 67, Clemson #20 (19-4) 70 [3] 63-69 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 134.2		 Clemson (62.3%)
Southern (9-13) 66, San José State (6-16) 80 [14] 76-73 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 150.8		 San José State (61.5%)
Drexel (12-11) 68, Pennsylvania (10-10) 84 [16] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 152.5		 Drexel (61.4%)
Kansas State (10-12) 85, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 86 [1] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 169.5		 Nebraska (60.7%)
Wisconsin (16-6) 70, BYU #16 (17-5) 98 [28] 73-85 ✗ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 165.2		 BYU (60.3%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 65, Charleston (15-8) 69 [4] 71-81 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 161.5		 Charleston (60.2%)
South Carolina (11-12) 72, Butler (13-10) 79 [7] 71-83 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 150.5		 South Carolina (58.7%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 64, West Georgia (10-12) 72 [8] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 153.5		 West Georgia (58.4%)
Radford (13-12) 73, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 81 [8] 80-70 ✓ MAE: 1.7
O/U: 151.5		 UNC Wilmington (53.8%)
Northwestern (10-13) 78, Virginia #18 (19-3) 83 [5] 68-81 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 149.2		 Virginia (53.7%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 72, Montana State (13-10) 78 [6] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 6.3
O/U: 141.0		 Montana State (52.9%)
Lafayette (7-17) 70, Stonehill (9-14) 74 [4] 65-72 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 141.8		 Stonehill (52.7%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 60, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 63 [3] 68-69 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 147.5		 Pepperdine (52.7%) DOG
Mississippi State (11-11) 78, New Mexico (18-5) 80 [2] 81-70 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 151.8		 Mississippi State (52.1%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 64, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 84 [20] 69-73 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET OVER 138.5		 Coastal Carolina (52.1%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 80, Alabama State (7-15) 101 [21] 78-85 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 181.8		 Alabama State (51.4%) DOG
Memphis (10-11) 68, Wake Forest (11-11) 69 [1] 72-77 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 160.5		 Memphis (51.2%) DOG
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 63, Air Force (3-19) 77 [14] 62-70 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 130.8		 SIU Edwardsville (51.1%)
Oakland (14-11) 91, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 97 [6] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 16.6
O/U: 153.5		 Eastern Michigan (51.1%) DOG
Northern Colorado (13-10) 72, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 73 [1] 86-72 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 157.5		 Northern Colorado (51.1%)
Lehigh (10-14) 67, Columbia (14-7) 82 [15] 73-77 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 143.2		 Lehigh (50.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
72
Final results
72
Correct picks
55
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
72
Avg Confidence
78.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1271
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
59
ML Win Rate
69.5%
ML Profit
$-0
ML ROI
-0.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$228
ROI
32.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
10
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$714
ROI
59.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
4
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$459
ROI
114.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
52
ATS Wins
33
ATS Losses
19
ATS Win Rate
63.5%
Spread Profit
$110
Spread ROI
21.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
65
Avg Confidence
60.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1751
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
56
O/U Wins
32
O/U Losses
24
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$51
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Campbell 71 @ UT Arlington 67 UT Arlington (78.7%) DOG UT Arlington +1.2 +8.6 +7.3 -4.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$228
ROI
32.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern 78, Virginia 83 [5] Virginia 53.7% +155 +15.9% WIN
Lafayette 70, Stonehill 74 [4] Stonehill 52.7% +102 +5.4% WIN
Pepperdine 60, Stephen F. Austin 63 [3] Pepperdine 52.7% +100 +4.9% LOSS
IU Indianapolis 80, Alabama State 101 [21] Alabama State 51.4% +150 +12.9% WIN
Memphis 68, Wake Forest 69 [1] Memphis 51.2% +130 +9.1% LOSS
Oakland 91, Eastern Michigan 97 [6] Eastern Michigan 51.1% +120 +7.3% WIN
Lehigh 67, Columbia 82 [15] Lehigh 50.7% +117 +6.5% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
10
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$714
ROI
59.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern 78, Virginia 83 [5] Virginia 53.7% +155 +15.9% WIN
IU Indianapolis 80, Alabama State 101 [21] Alabama State 51.4% +150 +12.9% WIN
Maryland Eastern Shore 57, Canisius 60 [3] Canisius 68.9% -145 +11.8% WIN
Hampton 60, Norfolk State 62 [2] Norfolk State 62.6% -117 +11.3% WIN
Memphis 68, Wake Forest 69 [1] Memphis 51.2% +130 +9.1% LOSS
Kansas State 85, Nebraska 86 [1] Nebraska 60.7% -125 +7.4% WIN
Oakland 91, Eastern Michigan 97 [6] Eastern Michigan 51.1% +120 +7.3% WIN
Holy Cross 66, Sacred Heart 79 [13] Sacred Heart 77.2% -275 +6.6% WIN
Cal State Fullerton 85, Portland 103 [18] Portland 73.2% -225 +6.5% WIN
Lehigh 67, Columbia 82 [15] Lehigh 50.7% +117 +6.5% LOSS
Charlotte 63, App State 65 [2] App State 62.6% -140 +6.4% WIN
Lafayette 70, Stonehill 74 [4] Stonehill 52.7% +102 +5.4% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
4
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$459
ROI
114.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern 78, Virginia 83 [5] Virginia 53.7% +155 +15.9% WIN
IU Indianapolis 80, Alabama State 101 [21] Alabama State 51.4% +150 +12.9% WIN
Maryland Eastern Shore 57, Canisius 60 [3] Canisius 68.9% -145 +11.8% WIN
Hampton 60, Norfolk State 62 [2] Norfolk State 62.6% -117 +11.3% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$550
ROI
183.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago Northern Illinois 24.5% +750 +13.3% WIN
Utah State @ Tulane Tulane 32.0% +467 +15.3% LOSS
Georgia @ Xavier Xavier 32.9% +437 +15.2% LOSS