Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-22
All Games Summary
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
COMPLETED GAMES (40)
Central Michigan (7-16) 71, Marquette (8-15) 85 [14] 69-88 MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 151.8
Marquette (97.0%)
Wagner (7-13) 75, Georgetown (13-10) 92 [17] 62-79 MAE: 12.6
O/U: 140.5
Georgetown (97.0%)
Long Island University (14-8) 58, Illinois #5 (20-3) 98 [40] 60-92 MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 160.2
Illinois (96.9%)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 55, Dayton (15-8) 74 [19] 55-82 MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 147.0
Dayton (96.7%)
Coppin State (3-21) 58, VCU (17-6) 101 [43] 53-90 MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 151.5
VCU (96.6%)
Nicholls (10-13) 81, Oklahoma State (16-6) 95 [14] 72-93 MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 154.0
Oklahoma State (96.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 70, Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 86 [16] 62-84 MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 138.5
Cal State Bakersfield (96.2%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 67, Richmond (13-10) 102 [35] 65-92 MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 153.8
Richmond (94.3%)
Eastern Oregon (0-2) 68, Idaho (13-9) 97 [29] 75-86 MAE: 9.2 Idaho (94.2%)
Nobel (0-7) 68, Southern Utah (8-15) 103 [35] 75-85 MAE: 12.3 Southern Utah (93.7%)
NJIT (11-12) 70, Navy (18-6) 86 [16] 58-84 MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 140.0
Navy (91.5%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 71, Kent State (17-6) 91 [20] 74-92 MAE: 1.5
BET UNDER 172.5
Kent State (88.3%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 58, Wichita State (14-9) 75 [17] 70-80 MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 158.8
Wichita State (83.2%)
Binghamton (5-18) 52, Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 63 [11] 65-71 MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 125.5
Binghamton (80.4%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 75, Green Bay (13-12) 79 [4] 69-80 MAE: 7.5
O/U: 146.5
Massachusetts (76.8%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 66, Saint Peter's (12-8) 68 [2] 65-75 MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 147.5
Saint Peter's (73.4%)
St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 80, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 88 [8] 78-84 MAE: 3.3
O/U: 162.5
Cal State Fullerton (70.5%)
North Alabama (7-14) 57, Chattanooga (9-14) 71 [14] 66-77 MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 149.5
Chattanooga (69.2%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 68, UT Martin (18-5) 69 [1] 77-74 MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 155.5
UT Martin (68.6%)
Ball State (7-15) 52, Indiana State (10-14) 70 [18] 66-78 MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 153.5
Indiana State (67.0%)
Niagara (6-17) 70, Howard (14-9) 80 [10] 60-71 MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 138.8
Howard (64.1%)
UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 64, Nevada (16-7) 77 [13] 66-77 MAE: 1.5
BET UNDER 148.0
Nevada (64.1%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 62, Lipscomb (15-9) 83 [21] 73-85 MAE: 6.5
BET OVER 152.0
Lipscomb (63.7%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 67, Missouri State (13-9) 74 [7] 63-73 MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 149.5
Missouri State (62.9%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 83, Mercer (15-8) 95 [12] 72-81 MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 163.2
Eastern Kentucky (61.7%)
North Florida (5-18) 83, Southern Miss (12-13) 92 [9] 88-77 MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 154.2
North Florida (59.7%)
Oregon State (13-12) 84, Iona (14-9) 91 [7] 67-78 MAE: 15.3
BET UNDER 157.0
Oregon State (59.6%)
Weber State (11-12) 73, UT Arlington (14-7) 74 [1] 68-74 MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 150.2
Weber State (58.0%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 80, Morehead State (12-11) 83 [3] 74-75 MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 145.5
Morehead State (57.7%)
UC Irvine (15-7) 69, Northern Iowa (14-9) 70 [1] 62-70 MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 137.5
UC Irvine (55.7%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 80, High Point (21-4) 91 [11] 75-84 MAE: 6.0
O/U: 159.5
High Point (55.6%)
Penn State (10-12) 65, Providence (10-13) 77 [12] 77-78 MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 165.5
Penn State (55.0%) DOG
Duquesne (13-10) 86, Northeastern (6-15) 93 [7] 72-85 MAE: 10.9
BET OVER 146.5
Duquesne (54.8%)
Harvard (12-9) 74, Boston University (9-15) 75 [1] 69-64 MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 136.5
Harvard (54.0%)
Portland (11-14) 80, Northern Colorado (13-10) 86 [6] 81-78 MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 156.8
Northern Colorado (54.0%)
Minnesota (11-12) 65, San Francisco (14-11) 77 [12] 64-70 MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 140.5
Minnesota (52.2%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 83, Fairfield (14-10) 97 [14] 73-75 MAE: 16.0
O/U: 146.2
Le Moyne (51.4%) DOG
Southern Indiana (5-17) 73, UIC (13-11) 84 [11] 74-71 MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 153.5
UIC (51.4%) DOG
North Dakota (13-12) 58, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 75 [17] 75-68 MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 147.5
Coastal Carolina (50.7%)
VMI (6-18) 80, Stetson (8-15) 99 [19] 73-80 MAE: 13.0
BET OVER 149.0
Stetson (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
42
Avg Confidence
77.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0254
Calibration Quality
Excellent
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
31
ML Win Rate
67.7%
ML Profit
$6
ML ROI
2.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$798
ROI
99.7%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1045
ROI
116.1%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1044
ROI
208.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
25
ATS Wins
14
ATS Losses
11
ATS Win Rate
56.0%
Spread Profit
$17
Spread ROI
6.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+3.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
58.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2665
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
26
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
14
O/U Win Rate
46.2%
O/U Profit
$-31
O/U ROI
-11.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-6.2%
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$798
ROI
99.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Irvine 69, Northern Iowa 70 [1] UC Irvine 55.7% +105 +8.9% LOSS
Incarnate Word 80, High Point 91 [11] High Point 55.6% +687 +43.5% WIN
Penn State 65, Providence 77 [12] Penn State 55.0% +167 +18.9% LOSS
Duquesne 86, Northeastern 93 [7] Duquesne 54.8% +340 +33.1% LOSS
Minnesota 65, San Francisco 77 [12] Minnesota 52.2% +127 +9.8% LOSS
Le Moyne 83, Fairfield 97 [14] Le Moyne 51.4% +105 +4.7% LOSS
Southern Indiana 73, UIC 84 [11] UIC 51.4% +475 +34.9% WIN
VMI 80, Stetson 99 [19] Stetson 50.3% +135 +9.3% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1045
ROI
116.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Incarnate Word 80, High Point 91 [11] High Point 55.6% +687 +43.5% WIN
Southern Indiana 73, UIC 84 [11] UIC 51.4% +475 +34.9% WIN
Duquesne 86, Northeastern 93 [7] Duquesne 54.8% +340 +33.1% LOSS
Penn State 65, Providence 77 [12] Penn State 55.0% +167 +18.9% LOSS
UT Rio Grande Valley 67, Missouri State 74 [7] Missouri State 62.9% -122 +10.2% WIN
Minnesota 65, San Francisco 77 [12] Minnesota 52.2% +127 +9.8% LOSS
VMI 80, Stetson 99 [19] Stetson 50.3% +135 +9.3% WIN
UC Irvine 69, Northern Iowa 70 [1] UC Irvine 55.7% +105 +8.9% LOSS
Western Carolina 62, Lipscomb 83 [21] Lipscomb 63.7% -152 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1044
ROI
208.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Incarnate Word 80, High Point 91 [11] High Point 55.6% +687 +43.5% WIN
Southern Indiana 73, UIC 84 [11] UIC 51.4% +475 +34.9% WIN
Duquesne 86, Northeastern 93 [7] Duquesne 54.8% +340 +33.1% LOSS
Penn State 65, Providence 77 [12] Penn State 55.0% +167 +18.9% LOSS
UT Rio Grande Valley 67, Missouri State 74 [7] Missouri State 62.9% -122 +10.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1062
ROI
354.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Incarnate Word @ High Point High Point 55.6% +687 +43.5% WIN
Southern Indiana @ UIC UIC 51.4% +475 +34.9% WIN
Northeastern @ Duquesne Duquesne 54.8% +340 +33.1% LOSS