Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-22
All Games Summary
Total Picks
45
Final results
28
Correct picks
21
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
17
Accuracy
75.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
🔴 LIVE GAMES (3)
Wagner (0-5) 60, Georgetown (5-0) 73 LIVE 2nd 8:23 51-83 ✗ MAE: 16.4
BET UNDER 140.5		 Georgetown (98.7%)
NJIT (3-3) 56, Navy (3-3) 68 LIVE Halftime 65-75 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 140.0		 Navy (90.2%)
Saint Joseph's (2-3) 0, Syracuse (4-0) 0 LIVE 2nd 8:23 66-75 ✗ MAE: 70.3 Syracuse (50.4%)
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (42)
Howard Payne (0-1) 75, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (2-4) 122 [47] 58-69 ✗ MAE: 34.8 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (99.6%)
Long Island University (3-3) 58, Illinois #8 (5-1) 98 [40] 55-97 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 160.2		 Illinois (99.3%)
Central Michigan (2-4) 71, Marquette (4-3) 85 [14] 66-94 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 151.8		 Marquette (99.3%)
Lancaster Bible College (0-1) 46, La Salle (3-3) 75 [29] 62-71 ✗ MAE: 9.9 La Salle (99.3%)
Schreiner (0-1) 54, Sam Houston (3-2) 105 [51] 63-74 ✗ MAE: 20.4 Sam Houston (99.3%)
Nobel (0-4) 0, Southern Utah (1-5) 0 [0] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 76.8 Southern Utah (99.3%)
Coppin State (1-6) 0, VCU (2-2) 0 [0] 54-89 ✗ MAE: 71.5
BET UNDER 151.2		 VCU (99.3%)
Eastern Oregon (0-1) 0, Idaho (2-2) 0 [0] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 75.3 Idaho (99.1%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-6) 70, Cal State Bakersfield (3-3) 86 [16] 60-85 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 138.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (98.7%)
North Carolina Central (2-5) 55, Dayton (5-1) 74 [19] 62-87 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 147.0		 Dayton (98.7%)
Cal State Fullerton (1-5) 80, St. Thomas-Minnesota (5-2) 88 [8] 68-85 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 162.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (95.8%)
Western Carolina (3-3) 62, Lipscomb (2-4) 83 [21] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 152.0		 Lipscomb (93.5%)
Nicholls (0-5) 81, Oklahoma State (6-0) 95 [14] 66-88 ✗ MAE: 11.0
O/U: 154.0		 Oklahoma State (90.2%)
Iona (4-1) 0, Oregon State (3-2) 0 [0] 67-79 ✗ MAE: 73.2
BET UNDER 157.0		 Oregon State (87.4%)
UIC (3-3) 73, Southern Indiana (2-4) 84 [11] 74-72 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 153.5		 UIC (85.5%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (3-5) 63, Binghamton (2-5) 52 [11] 64-74 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET OVER 125.5		 Binghamton (84.4%)
UC Santa Barbara (3-2) 64, Nevada (4-2) 77 [13] 71-83 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 148.0		 Nevada (82.7%)
Green Bay (2-5) 79, Massachusetts (3-3) 75 [4] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 146.5		 Massachusetts (82.7%)
High Point (5-1) 0, Incarnate Word (3-2) 0 [0] 80-77 ✗ MAE: 78.7
BET UNDER 160.0		 High Point (81.9%)
Cleveland State (2-5) 71, Kent State (6-1) 91 [20] 67-87 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 172.5		 Kent State (79.3%)
UT Martin (4-1) 69, Prairie View A&M (2-4) 68 [1] 79-75 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 155.5		 UT Martin (78.9%)
Ball State (2-2) 0, Indiana State (3-2) 0 [0] 68-86 ✗ MAE: 77.0
O/U: 153.5		 Indiana State (77.3%)
Providence (4-2) 77, Penn State (5-1) 65 [12] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 165.5		 Penn State (77.3%) DOG
Gardner-Webb (0-5) 0, Richmond (4-0) 0 [0] 65-81 ✗ MAE: 72.8
BET UNDER 153.8		 Richmond (77.3%)
Coastal Carolina (3-2) 0, North Dakota (2-4) 0 [0] 75-80 ✗ MAE: 77.2
BET OVER 147.5		 North Dakota (77.3%) DOG
Mercer (3-2) 95, Eastern Kentucky (1-4) 83 [12] 68-82 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 163.2		 Eastern Kentucky (77.3%)
Northern Colorado (3-1) 0, Portland (4-1) 0 [0] 83-78 ✗ MAE: 80.8
BET OVER 156.8		 Northern Colorado (76.6%)
Milwaukee (2-3) 0, Wichita State (3-1) 0 [0] 65-84 ✗ MAE: 74.8
BET UNDER 159.8		 Wichita State (76.1%)
Northern Iowa (4-0) 0, UC Irvine (3-2) 0 [0] 60-71 ✗ MAE: 65.9
BET UNDER 137.5		 UC Irvine (74.4%)
Harvard (4-3) 74, Boston University (3-3) 75 [1] 70-66 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 136.5		 Harvard (68.9%)
Southern Miss (2-3) 0, North Florida (1-3) 0 [0] 75-76 ✗ MAE: 75.8
BET UNDER 155.0		 North Florida (67.0%) DOG
North Alabama (2-4) 57, Chattanooga (3-3) 71 [14] 70-86 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET OVER 149.5		 Chattanooga (67.0%)
VMI (3-3) 0, Stetson (2-3) 0 [0] 82-71 ✗ MAE: 76.3
BET OVER 149.0		 VMI (64.2%)
Morehead State (2-4) 0, UL Monroe (1-4) 0 [0] 80-67 ✗ MAE: 73.2
O/U: 145.8		 Morehead State (61.3%)
Niagara (2-4) 70, Howard (3-3) 80 [10] 70-82 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET OVER 138.8		 Howard (60.4%)
Evansville (3-3) 0, Iona (4-1) 0 [0] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 69.5 Iona (60.4%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (2-3) 67, Missouri State (3-2) 74 [7] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 149.5		 Missouri State (60.4%)
UT Arlington (4-2) 0, Weber State (2-3) 0 [0] 76-73 ✗ MAE: 74.8
O/U: 150.8		 UT Arlington (57.5%) DOG
Duquesne (5-1) 93, Northeastern (2-4) 86 [7] 74-72 ✗ MAE: 16.2
O/U: 146.5		 Duquesne (57.5%) DOG
UMass Lowell (1-6) 66, Saint Peter's (2-3) 68 [2] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 6.3
O/U: 147.5		 Saint Peter's (53.1%)
San Francisco (5-1) 77, Minnesota (4-2) 65 [12] 74-64 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 140.5		 San Francisco (51.2%)
Fairfield (4-2) 97, Le Moyne (2-4) 83 [14] 72-79 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET OVER 146.2		 Le Moyne (50.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
45
Final results
28
Correct picks
21
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
17
Accuracy
75.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
28
Avg Confidence
81.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1846
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
20
ML Win Rate
65.0%
ML Profit
$-250
ML ROI
-12.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
4
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
8
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
3
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit
$-80
ROI
-15.4%
5% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (5%+)
16
Wins
4
Losses
5
Pending
7
Win Rate
44.4%
Profit
$-300
ROI
-32.8%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
11
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
6
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit
$-80
ROI
-15.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
17
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
8
ATS Win Rate
52.9%
Spread Profit
$20
Spread ROI
1.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
25
Avg Confidence
59.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4006
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
17
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
8
O/U Win Rate
52.9%
O/U Profit
$20
O/U ROI
1.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
10
Completed
5
Covered
2
Failed
3
Pushes
0
Pending
5
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-120
ROI
-23.6%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
5
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
40.0%
O/U Profit
$-120
O/U ROI
-23.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Western Carolina 62 @ Lipscomb 83 Lipscomb (93.5%) Lipscomb -5.0 +10.2 +15.2 +21.0 COVERED
Ball State @ Indiana State Indiana State (77.3%) Indiana State -7.5 +9.9 +17.4 — PENDING
Mercer 95 @ Eastern Kentucky 83 Eastern Kentucky (77.3%) Eastern Kentucky -4.0 +9.1 +13.1 -12.0 FAILED
Milwaukee @ Wichita State Wichita State (76.1%) Wichita State -10.5 +8.8 +19.3 — PENDING
Iona @ Oregon State Oregon State (87.4%) Oregon State -3.5 +8.8 +12.3 — PENDING
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota North Dakota (77.3%) DOG North Dakota +3.5 +8.4 +4.9 — PENDING
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine UC Irvine (74.4%) UC Irvine -2.5 +8.3 +10.8 — PENDING
Providence 77 @ Penn State 65 Penn State (77.3%) DOG Penn State +3.5 +8.2 +4.7 -12.0 FAILED
UC Santa Barbara 64 @ Nevada 77 Nevada (82.7%) Nevada -5.2 +6.8 +12.0 +13.0 COVERED
Cal State Fullerton 80 @ St. Thomas-Minnesota 88 St. Thomas-Minnesota (95.8%) St. Thomas-Minnesota -11.5 +6.2 +17.7 +8.0 FAILED
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
4
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Win Loss
Providence 77, Penn State 65 [12] Penn State 77.3% +167 +41.3% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 0, North Dakota 0 [0] North Dakota 77.3% +132 +35.9% PENDING
Northern Iowa 0, UC Irvine 0 [0] UC Irvine 74.4% +105 +27.6% PENDING
Southern Miss 0, North Florida 0 [0] North Florida 67.0% +287 +42.3% PENDING
UT Arlington 0, Weber State 0 [0] UT Arlington 57.5% +107 +11.3% PENDING
Fairfield 97, Le Moyne 83 [14] Le Moyne 50.4% +105 +3.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
8
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
3
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit
$-80
ROI
-15.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Win Loss
Cal State Fullerton 80, St. Thomas-Minnesota 88 [8] St. Thomas-Minnesota 95.8% -650 +13.8% WIN
Western Carolina 62, Lipscomb 83 [21] Lipscomb 93.5% -152 +35.3% WIN
Iona 0, Oregon State 0 [0] Oregon State 87.4% -150 +29.4% PENDING
UC Santa Barbara 64, Nevada 77 [13] Nevada 82.7% -237 +15.0% WIN
Providence 77, Penn State 65 [12] Penn State 77.3% +167 +41.3% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 0, North Dakota 0 [0] North Dakota 77.3% +132 +35.9% PENDING
Mercer 95, Eastern Kentucky 83 [12] Eastern Kentucky 77.3% -160 +17.9% LOSS
Northern Colorado 0, Portland 0 [0] Northern Colorado 76.6% -177 +15.1% PENDING
5% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (5%+)
16
Wins
4
Losses
5
Pending
7
Win Rate
44.4%
Profit
$-300
ROI
-32.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Win Loss
Southern Miss 0, North Florida 0 [0] North Florida 67.0% +287 +42.3% PENDING
Providence 77, Penn State 65 [12] Penn State 77.3% +167 +41.3% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 0, North Dakota 0 [0] North Dakota 77.3% +132 +35.9% PENDING
Western Carolina 62, Lipscomb 83 [21] Lipscomb 93.5% -152 +35.3% WIN
Iona 0, Oregon State 0 [0] Oregon State 87.4% -150 +29.4% PENDING
Northern Iowa 0, UC Irvine 0 [0] UC Irvine 74.4% +105 +27.6% PENDING
Mercer 95, Eastern Kentucky 83 [12] Eastern Kentucky 77.3% -160 +17.9% LOSS
Northern Colorado 0, Portland 0 [0] Northern Colorado 76.6% -177 +15.1% PENDING
UC Santa Barbara 64, Nevada 77 [13] Nevada 82.7% -237 +15.0% WIN
Cal State Fullerton 80, St. Thomas-Minnesota 88 [8] St. Thomas-Minnesota 95.8% -650 +13.8% WIN
UT Arlington 0, Weber State 0 [0] UT Arlington 57.5% +107 +11.3% PENDING
Green Bay 79, Massachusetts 75 [4] Massachusetts 82.7% -335 +8.8% LOSS
UT Rio Grande Valley 67, Missouri State 74 [7] Missouri State 60.4% -122 +7.6% WIN
Maryland Eastern Shore 63, Binghamton 52 [11] Binghamton 84.4% -425 +7.2% LOSS
Harvard 74, Boston University 75 [1] Harvard 68.9% -187 +6.0% LOSS
VMI 0, Stetson 0 [0] VMI 64.2% -157 +5.2% PENDING
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
11
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
6
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit
$-80
ROI
-15.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Win Loss
Southern Miss 0, North Florida 0 [0] North Florida 67.0% +287 +42.3% PENDING
Providence 77, Penn State 65 [12] Penn State 77.3% +167 +41.3% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 0, North Dakota 0 [0] North Dakota 77.3% +132 +35.9% PENDING
Western Carolina 62, Lipscomb 83 [21] Lipscomb 93.5% -152 +35.3% WIN
Iona 0, Oregon State 0 [0] Oregon State 87.4% -150 +29.4% PENDING
Northern Iowa 0, UC Irvine 0 [0] UC Irvine 74.4% +105 +27.6% PENDING
Mercer 95, Eastern Kentucky 83 [12] Eastern Kentucky 77.3% -160 +17.9% LOSS
Northern Colorado 0, Portland 0 [0] Northern Colorado 76.6% -177 +15.1% PENDING
UC Santa Barbara 64, Nevada 77 [13] Nevada 82.7% -237 +15.0% WIN
Cal State Fullerton 80, St. Thomas-Minnesota 88 [8] St. Thomas-Minnesota 95.8% -650 +13.8% WIN
UT Arlington 0, Weber State 0 [0] UT Arlington 57.5% +107 +11.3% PENDING
Value Picks

Moneyline Value (edge ≥ 5%)

North Florida ML (+287)
Edge +41.2%
— PENDING
Penn State ML (+167)
Edge +39.9%
✗ LOST
North Dakota ML (+132)
Edge +34.3%
— PENDING
Lipscomb ML (-152)
Edge +33.1%
✓ WON

Spread Gaps (|predicted margin - spread| ≥ 8.0)

North Florida +9.2
Southern Miss @ North Florida
Gap +10.4
✓ COVERED
Lipscomb -5.0
Western Carolina @ Lipscomb
Gap +10.2
✓ COVERED
Indiana State -7.5
Ball State @ Indiana State
Gap +9.9
✗ FAILED
Duquesne +7.5
Duquesne @ Northeastern
Gap +9.4
✓ COVERED

Totals Gaps (|predicted total - O/U| ≥ 8.0)

Under 160.2
Long Island University @ Illinois
Gap +8.2
✓ WON (156)
Over 151.8
Central Michigan @ Marquette
Gap +8.2
✓ WON (156)
Under 151.2
Coppin State @ VCU
Gap +8.3
✓ WON (0)
Under 162.5
Cal State Fullerton @ St. Thomas-Minnesota
Gap +9.6
✗ LOST (168)