Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-23
All Games Summary
Total Picks
42
Final results
42
Correct picks
30
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (42)
Howard (14-9) 56, Duke #4 (21-1) 93 [37] 52-88 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 154.0		 Duke (97.0%)
Alcorn State (4-17) 53, Oklahoma (11-12) 72 [19] 58-94 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 160.8		 Oklahoma (96.6%)
Bryant (7-15) 49, UConn #3 (22-1) 72 [23] 51-79 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 148.0		 UConn (96.2%)
Delaware State (6-15) 41, Miami (17-5) 97 [56] 56-88 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 151.5		 Miami (95.9%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 55, East Tennessee State (17-7) 97 [42] 63-85 ✗ MAE: 10.1
O/U: 147.2		 East Tennessee State (95.4%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 75, DePaul (12-11) 95 [20] 65-85 ✗ MAE: 10.0
O/U: 151.5		 DePaul (95.0%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 84, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 111 [27] 71-95 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET OVER 160.0		 Miami (OH) (94.9%)
West Georgia (10-12) 66, Georgia Tech (11-12) 82 [16] 69-85 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET OVER 145.0		 Georgia Tech (92.4%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 81, South Dakota (13-12) 82 [1] 71-86 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 160.5		 South Dakota (89.2%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 75, Quinnipiac (15-9) 83 [8] 66-77 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 142.2		 Pittsburgh (88.9%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 67, Wyoming (13-10) 75 [8] 63-76 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 141.5		 Wyoming (86.6%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 60, Marshall (15-8) 69 [9] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 147.5		 Marshall (82.7%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 42, Illinois State (15-8) 94 [52] 60-81 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET UNDER 145.8		 Illinois State (75.9%)
South Carolina (11-12) 77, Northwestern (10-13) 79 [2] 71-78 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET OVER 145.8		 Northwestern (72.9%)
Evansville (5-18) 59, Akron (19-4) 97 [38] 78-75 ✗ MAE: 17.4
BET UNDER 156.2		 Akron (71.4%)
Montana (13-10) 63, Lamar (12-11) 68 [5] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 148.8		 Montana (70.4%)
Jackson State (6-16) 62, Winthrop (17-8) 80 [18] 81-77 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 163.2		 Winthrop (67.9%)
Queens University (12-11) 79, Furman (16-8) 90 [11] 74-90 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET OVER 153.5		 Furman (67.6%)
Charleston (15-8) 63, Yale (16-4) 74 [11] 79-69 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 148.5		 Yale (66.6%)
Davidson (13-9) 60, Utah State (19-3) 94 [34] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 16.2
BET OVER 146.5		 Utah State (65.3%)
George Washington (13-10) 86, McNeese (18-5) 92 [6] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 157.5		 George Washington (63.4%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 71, Drexel (12-11) 75 [4] 66-77 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 142.8		 Drexel (63.2%)
Delaware (6-16) 59, Southern Illinois (10-13) 79 [20] 70-71 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 153.8		 Southern Illinois (61.6%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 93, Northern Colorado (13-10) 97 [4] 81-89 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET OVER 164.5		 Northern Colorado (60.2%)
West Virginia (14-8) 68, Xavier (12-11) 78 [10] 72-70 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 140.5		 West Virginia (59.9%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 85, Air Force (3-19) 98 [13] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 14.3
BET UNDER 175.2		 Air Force (59.2%)
Longwood (13-12) 70, Columbia (14-7) 95 [25] 71-82 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 153.0		 Columbia (58.7%)
Boston College (9-13) 90, Tulane (13-9) 93 [3] 63-74 ✗ MAE: 22.8
BET UNDER 140.8		 Boston College (58.6%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 60, Western Michigan (8-14) 83 [23] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 7.6
O/U: 150.5		 Western Michigan (58.4%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 70, Monmouth (11-12) 71 [1] 67-72 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 148.5		 Monmouth (57.4%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 65, Central Arkansas (13-10) 92 [27] 87-74 ✗ MAE: 20.0
BET OVER 154.2		 Eastern Washington (57.1%)
Binghamton (5-18) 66, Canisius (8-16) 75 [9] 61-71 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET OVER 129.8		 Canisius (57.1%)
Portland (11-14) 66, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 76 [10] 77-78 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 156.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (56.8%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 62, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 68 [6] 74-78 ✗ MAE: 11.0
O/U: 152.5		 Youngstown State (55.6%)
Virginia #18 (19-3) 73, Butler (13-10) 80 [7] 82-69 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 155.5		 Butler (55.1%)
Murray State (17-7) 87, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 90 [3] 82-75 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 161.2		 Murray State (54.7%)
Georgia (16-6) 94, Clemson #20 (19-4) 97 [3] 77-86 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET OVER 153.2		 Georgia (53.2%) DOG
UT Martin (18-5) 60, Southern Miss (12-13) 70 [10] 66-71 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 147.5		 Southern Miss (52.8%) DOG
Alabama State (7-15) 68, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 83 [15] 65-71 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 142.8		 SIU Edwardsville (52.4%) DOG
Maine (5-18) 53, Brown (7-13) 58 [5] 65-58 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 128.0		 Maine (51.2%) DOG
Western Illinois (4-19) 69, North Dakota (13-12) 78 [9] 67-73 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 146.8		 Western Illinois (51.2%) DOG
North Florida (5-18) 82, Prairie View A&M (9-13) 85 [3] 84-85 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET OVER 160.2		 North Florida (51.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
42
Final results
42
Correct picks
30
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
41
Avg Confidence
68.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0530
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
36
ML Win Rate
66.7%
ML Profit
$-6
ML ROI
-1.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$542
ROI
90.4%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$529
ROI
105.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$542
ROI
180.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
23
ATS Wins
13
ATS Losses
10
ATS Win Rate
56.5%
Spread Profit
$18
Spread ROI
7.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
41
Avg Confidence
50.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2054
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
41
O/U Wins
18
O/U Losses
23
O/U Win Rate
43.9%
O/U Profit
$-66
O/U ROI
-16.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$542
ROI
90.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Cal State Fullerton 93, Northern Colorado 97 [4] Northern Colorado 60.2% +500 +44.4% WIN
Georgia 94, Clemson 97 [3] Georgia 53.2% +125 +10.3% LOSS
UT Martin 60, Southern Miss 70 [10] Southern Miss 52.8% +100 +5.0% WIN
Alabama State 68, SIU Edwardsville 83 [15] SIU Edwardsville 52.4% +142 +12.7% WIN
Maine 53, Brown 58 [5] Maine 51.2% N/A N/A LOSS
North Florida 82, Prairie View A&M 85 [3] North Florida 51.2% +132 +9.7% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$529
ROI
105.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Cal State Fullerton 93, Northern Colorado 97 [4] Northern Colorado 60.2% +500 +44.4% WIN
Alabama State 68, SIU Edwardsville 83 [15] SIU Edwardsville 52.4% +142 +12.7% WIN
Georgia 94, Clemson 97 [3] Georgia 53.2% +125 +10.3% LOSS
North Florida 82, Prairie View A&M 85 [3] North Florida 51.2% +132 +9.7% LOSS
Mount St. Mary's 60, Western Michigan 83 [23] Western Michigan 58.4% -115 +7.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$542
ROI
180.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Cal State Fullerton 93, Northern Colorado 97 [4] Northern Colorado 60.2% +500 +44.4% WIN
Alabama State 68, SIU Edwardsville 83 [15] SIU Edwardsville 52.4% +142 +12.7% WIN
Georgia 94, Clemson 97 [3] Georgia 53.2% +125 +10.3% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$672
ROI
224.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado Northern Colorado 60.2% +500 +44.4% WIN
Akron @ Evansville Evansville 28.6% +750 +17.4% LOSS
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee 45.3% +272 +19.6% WIN