Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-24
All Games Summary
Total Picks
58
Final results
58
Correct picks
38
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (58)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 46, Louisville #24 (16-6) 87 [41] 58-87 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 162.2		 Louisville (97.3%)
Denver (9-15) 73, Arizona #1 (22-0) 103 [30] 64-100 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 154.0		 Arizona (97.0%)
Radford (13-12) 72, SMU (15-7) 89 [17] 75-96 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET OVER 165.0		 SMU (96.9%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 73, Illinois #5 (20-3) 87 [14] 58-82 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 164.5		 Illinois (96.8%)
NJIT (11-12) 67, Cincinnati (11-11) 94 [27] 52-85 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 142.0		 Cincinnati (96.3%)
Hawai'i Pacific (1-1) 76, Hawai'i (16-5) 88 [12] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 7.9 Hawai'i (94.5%)
Nobel (0-7) 49, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 84 [35] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 11.8 UC Santa Barbara (94.3%)
Louisiana (8-16) 56, UC Davis (13-9) 77 [21] 63-76 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 135.5		 UC Davis (83.2%)
New Orleans (11-13) 78, Mississippi State (11-11) 81 [3] 64-86 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 160.2		 Mississippi State (82.6%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 88, Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 93 [5] 74-86 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET OVER 152.8		 Florida Gulf Coast (81.1%)
Lamar (12-11) 68, Oakland (14-11) 83 [15] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 10.8
O/U: 149.8		 Lamar (80.0%) DOG
NC State (17-6) 74, Seton Hall (16-7) 85 [11] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 143.5		 NC State (79.5%)
Princeton (8-14) 64, Bradley (16-8) 88 [24] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 6.8
O/U: 141.8		 Bradley (78.6%)
Syracuse (13-10) 74, Houston #8 (20-2) 78 [4] 59-78 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 140.5		 Houston (77.2%)
Bucknell (8-16) 66, Bowling Green (14-9) 71 [5] 65-79 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 146.5		 Bowling Green (76.3%)
UTEP (8-15) 63, William & Mary (14-8) 74 [11] 69-74 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 159.2		 UTEP (76.1%) DOG
Iona (14-9) 75, Green Bay (13-12) 80 [5] 66-82 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 151.2		 Iona (75.3%)
Texas (14-9) 86, Arizona State (12-11) 87 [1] 72-87 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 153.0		 Texas (74.4%)
VMI (6-18) 70, Buffalo (14-9) 78 [8] 70-83 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET OVER 150.8		 Buffalo (73.9%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 61, Kansas #11 (17-5) 71 [10] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 142.2		 Kansas (71.8%)
San Diego State (16-6) 54, Michigan #2 (20-1) 94 [40] 74-88 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET OVER 148.8		 Michigan (67.7%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 69, Siena (16-7) 73 [4] 69-65 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 137.5		 Siena (67.4%)
Vermont (14-9) 73, Liberty (19-3) 79 [6] 79-73 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET OVER 141.8		 Liberty (66.2%)
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 79, George Washington (13-10) 92 [13] 76-76 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 158.8		 Middle Tennessee (66.2%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 71, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 82 [11] 74-85 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET OVER 156.5		 Northern Kentucky (65.5%)
Kansas City (4-20) 67, Lindenwood (14-10) 80 [13] 65-79 ✓ MAE: 1.5
BET UNDER 152.5		 Lindenwood (65.4%)
UNLV (10-12) 67, Maryland (8-13) 74 [7] 71-74 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 163.2		 Maryland (64.9%)
Rice (10-13) 84, Kennesaw State (14-8) 89 [5] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 159.5		 Kennesaw State (64.6%)
Murray State (17-7) 60, McNeese (18-5) 73 [13] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 12.4
O/U: 158.2		 McNeese (64.4%)
Grambling (10-11) 74, UC Riverside (8-15) 83 [9] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 6.2
O/U: 144.5		 UC Riverside (64.2%)
Creighton (12-11) 74, Baylor (13-9) 81 [7] 71-83 ✓ MAE: 2.6
O/U: 154.8		 Baylor (64.1%)
Missouri State (13-9) 61, Long Island University (14-8) 75 [14] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET UNDER 144.5		 Missouri State (63.6%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 106, Central Connecticut (11-10) 108 [2] 68-78 ✗ MAE: 33.6
BET OVER 144.2		 Central Connecticut (63.6%)
Ohio (13-11) 69, George Mason (20-3) 92 [23] 69-75 ✗ MAE: 14.4
O/U: 142.5		 Ohio (62.0%)
App State (16-9) 53, Elon (13-10) 88 [35] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 22.2
O/U: 143.8		 App State (61.7%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 65, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 76 [11] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 144.8		 Loyola Marymount (61.5%)
Temple (14-8) 76, UC San Diego (15-8) 91 [15] 70-77 ✗ MAE: 10.0
O/U: 148.8		 UC San Diego (60.5%) DOG
Jacksonville State (11-10) 63, Arkansas State (14-10) 74 [11] 68-76 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 155.5		 Arkansas State (60.4%)
Florida International (11-11) 72, James Madison (11-13) 80 [8] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 154.8		 Florida International (60.1%)
Oregon State (13-12) 65, Massachusetts (15-9) 73 [8] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 7.6
O/U: 149.2		 Oregon State (59.7%)
UTSA (4-18) 50, Abilene Christian (10-11) 61 [11] 63-74 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 144.5		 Abilene Christian (59.3%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 58, Pacific (15-10) 86 [28] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 145.0		 Pacific (59.1%)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 64, Jacksonville (9-14) 69 [5] 64-78 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 143.8		 Bethune-Cookman (58.8%)
St. John's #22 (17-5) 82, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 83 [1] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 158.2		 St. John's (57.5%)
Akron (19-4) 94, Yale (16-4) 97 [3] 79-88 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET OVER 157.0		 Akron (56.5%)
Oregon (8-14) 73, Auburn (14-8) 84 [11] 76-83 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 154.0		 Oregon (56.4%)
Evansville (5-18) 59, Charleston (15-8) 78 [19] 72-70 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 141.5		 Charleston (54.8%)
Rutgers (9-14) 60, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 85 [25] 81-64 ✗ MAE: 21.0
BET OVER 141.5		 Rutgers (54.0%)
Boise State (14-9) 67, USC (17-6) 70 [3] 80-73 ✗ MAE: 8.3
O/U: 155.0		 USC (53.4%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 65, East Texas A&M (8-15) 70 [5] 68-70 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 149.5		 East Texas A&M (52.5%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 61, Youngstown State (12-12) 67 [6] 71-77 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 164.8		 Youngstown State (52.0%) DOG
Alabama (15-7) 85, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 95 [10] 87-87 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 178.5		 Gonzaga (52.0%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 57, Belmont (21-3) 94 [37] 80-73 ✗ MAE: 22.3
BET UNDER 157.2		 Belmont (51.1%) DOG
The Citadel (8-15) 58, Bellarmine (9-13) 70 [12] 75-76 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 156.8		 The Citadel (51.0%) DOG
Troy (16-8) 68, Toledo (12-11) 75 [7] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 161.0		 Troy (51.0%) DOG
Cal Poly (9-14) 87, Northern Arizona (8-15) 93 [6] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 164.2		 Northern Arizona (50.8%) DOG
Rhode Island (13-9) 55, Towson (13-11) 62 [7] 61-67 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 139.5		 Towson (50.6%) DOG
Southern Illinois (10-13) 73, UAB (14-8) 81 [8] 74-78 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 161.8		 Southern Illinois (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
58
Final results
58
Correct picks
38
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
58
Avg Confidence
69.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0943
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
49
ML Win Rate
67.3%
ML Profit
$94
ML ROI
19.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1802
ROI
257.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
13
Wins
9
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
69.2%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2076
ROI
159.7%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1650
ROI
825.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
39
ATS Wins
22
ATS Losses
17
ATS Win Rate
56.4%
Spread Profit
$30
Spread ROI
7.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
55
Avg Confidence
63.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1860
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
56
O/U Wins
32
O/U Losses
24
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$51
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
5
Completed
5
Covered
1
Failed
4
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-309
ROI
-61.8%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
5
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
60.0%
O/U Profit
$73
O/U ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Green Bay 80 @ Iona 75 Iona (75.3%) Iona -5.5 +10.4 +15.9 -5.0 FAILED
Arizona State 87 @ Texas 86 Texas (74.4%) Texas -7.5 +7.6 +15.1 -1.0 FAILED
William & Mary 74 @ UTEP 63 UTEP (76.1%) DOG UTEP +2.2 +7.2 +5.0 -11.0 FAILED
Oakland 83 @ Lamar 68 Lamar (80.0%) DOG Lamar +0.2 +6.8 +6.5 -15.0 FAILED
Notre Dame 61 @ Kansas #11 71 Kansas (71.8%) Kansas -5.2 +6.8 +12.0 +10.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1802
ROI
257.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Georgia Southern 61, Youngstown State 67 [6] Youngstown State 52.0% +110 +6.3% WIN
St. Francis (PA) 57, Belmont 94 [37] Belmont 51.1% +1750 +45.9% WIN
The Citadel 58, Bellarmine 70 [12] The Citadel 51.0% +120 +6.5% LOSS
Troy 68, Toledo 75 [7] Troy 51.0% +162 +14.3% LOSS
Cal Poly 87, Northern Arizona 93 [6] Northern Arizona 50.8% +117 +6.5% WIN
Rhode Island 55, Towson 62 [7] Towson 50.6% +125 +8.3% WIN
Southern Illinois 73, UAB 81 [8] Southern Illinois 50.3% +127 +7.8% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
13
Wins
9
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
69.2%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2076
ROI
159.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 57, Belmont 94 [37] Belmont 51.1% +1750 +45.9% WIN
Troy 68, Toledo 75 [7] Troy 51.0% +162 +14.3% LOSS
Murray State 60, McNeese 73 [13] McNeese 64.4% -132 +9.7% WIN
Temple 76, UC San Diego 91 [15] UC San Diego 60.5% -115 +9.4% WIN
Rhode Island 55, Towson 62 [7] Towson 50.6% +125 +8.3% WIN
Southern Illinois 73, UAB 81 [8] Southern Illinois 50.3% +127 +7.8% LOSS
UTSA 50, Abilene Christian 61 [11] Abilene Christian 59.3% -124 +7.4% WIN
Eastern Kentucky 71, Northern Kentucky 82 [11] Northern Kentucky 65.5% -155 +6.9% WIN
Cal Poly 87, Northern Arizona 93 [6] Northern Arizona 50.8% +117 +6.5% WIN
UNLV 67, Maryland 74 [7] Maryland 64.9% -152 +6.5% WIN
Akron 94, Yale 97 [3] Akron 56.5% -110 +6.5% LOSS
The Citadel 58, Bellarmine 70 [12] The Citadel 51.0% +120 +6.5% LOSS
Georgia Southern 61, Youngstown State 67 [6] Youngstown State 52.0% +110 +6.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1650
ROI
825.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 57, Belmont 94 [37] Belmont 51.1% +1750 +45.9% WIN
Troy 68, Toledo 75 [7] Troy 51.0% +162 +14.3% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2625
ROI
875.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) @ Belmont Belmont 51.1% +1750 +45.9% WIN
Rutgers @ Tennessee Tennessee 46.0% +975 +37.1% WIN
New Orleans @ Mississippi State New Orleans 17.4% +1800 +12.3% LOSS