Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
70
Final results
70
Correct picks
51
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
72.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (70)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 59, Florida State (10-12) 89 [30] 65-86 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 159.5		 Florida State (97.1%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 60, Ohio State (14-7) 113 [53] 59-86 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 147.5		 Ohio State (96.9%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 66, Missouri (15-7) 98 [32] 62-91 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 161.5		 Missouri (96.8%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 75, Villanova (17-5) 89 [14] 62-82 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 147.5		 Villanova (96.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 84, Texas A&M (17-5) 120 [36] 57-106 ✗ MAE: 20.5
BET OVER 152.5		 Texas A&M (95.7%)
Dominican (IL) (0-2) 70, Milwaukee (9-16) 125 [55] 82-98 ✗ MAE: 19.4 Milwaukee (95.5%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 79, Norfolk State (10-14) 136 [57] 79-96 ✗ MAE: 20.2 Norfolk State (95.0%)
Washington College (MD) (0-2) 51, Loyola Maryland (9-15) 101 [50] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 19.5 Loyola Maryland (94.3%)
Campbell (10-13) 51, Wake Forest (11-11) 99 [48] 67-84 ✗ MAE: 15.3
BET UNDER 155.8		 Wake Forest (93.0%)
Winthrop (17-8) 73, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 80 [7] 68-84 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 166.0		 Nebraska (91.0%)
Boston University (9-15) 87, Penn State (10-12) 96 [9] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET OVER 144.5		 Penn State (90.6%)
Maryland (8-13) 61, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 100 [39] 66-89 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 157.2		 Gonzaga (88.9%)
Quinnipiac (15-9) 91, UCF (17-5) 102 [11] 73-85 ✗ MAE: 17.2
BET UNDER 162.5		 UCF (88.0%)
UNLV (10-12) 76, Alabama (15-7) 115 [39] 73-91 ✗ MAE: 13.3
BET UNDER 181.2		 Alabama (87.9%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 71, North Texas (12-11) 79 [8] 59-76 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 140.8		 North Texas (85.7%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 70, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 85 [15] 67-81 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 153.0		 North Carolina (83.0%)
Chicago State (2-19) 77, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 90 [13] 65-80 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 149.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (82.8%)
UTEP (8-15) 59, UAB (14-8) 75 [16] 64-77 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 146.5		 UAB (82.8%)
Kansas State (10-12) 69, Indiana (15-8) 86 [17] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 163.8		 Indiana (81.3%)
San Francisco State (0-2) 46, Sacramento State (9-13) 94 [48] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 18.2 Sacramento State (80.9%)
Rider (3-18) 65, Coppin State (3-21) 68 [3] 61-78 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 141.5		 Rider (77.2%)
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 62, McNeese (18-5) 72 [10] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 147.5		 McNeese (76.4%)
San Diego (10-15) 61, California Baptist (16-6) 76 [15] 65-77 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 145.5		 California Baptist (75.9%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 59, Austin Peay (16-6) 77 [18] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 146.5		 Austin Peay (75.1%)
Washington State (11-14) 94, Arizona State (12-11) 100 [6] 75-78 ✗ MAE: 20.4
BET UNDER 157.5		 Arizona State (74.5%)
East Carolina (7-15) 56, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 89 [33] 76-64 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 144.5		 Michigan State (73.8%)
Lehigh (10-14) 55, Marist (15-7) 78 [23] 57-73 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 131.0		 Marist (73.8%)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 67, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 82 [15] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 151.5		 South Carolina Upstate (72.7%)
Liberty (19-3) 69, Towson (13-11) 72 [3] 63-73 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 137.5		 Liberty (70.8%)
Oregon (8-14) 80, San Diego State (16-6) 97 [17] 71-79 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET OVER 141.2		 Oregon (70.8%)
Rice (10-13) 63, Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 78 [15] 73-84 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET OVER 149.5		 Florida Gulf Coast (69.4%)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 54, Stony Brook (14-9) 61 [7] 65-71 ✗ MAE: 10.5 Bethune-Cookman (69.0%)
Rutgers (9-14) 63, Notre Dame (11-12) 68 [5] 59-73 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 143.5		 Notre Dame (67.9%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 51, Northern Iowa (14-9) 72 [21] 68-62 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 134.8		 Northern Iowa (67.4%)
Stetson (8-15) 62, Wright State (15-9) 79 [17] 76-76 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET OVER 147.5		 Wright State (67.4%)
UC Irvine (15-7) 45, New Mexico State (11-11) 57 [12] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 17.9
BET UNDER 140.5		 UC Irvine (66.5%)
Vermont (14-9) 65, Rhode Island (13-9) 80 [15] 64-68 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 144.5		 Vermont (66.4%) DOG
Princeton (8-14) 75, Temple (14-8) 79 [4] 71-66 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 145.5		 Temple (66.3%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 83, Oral Roberts (5-19) 91 [8] 81-79 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 167.0		 Kennesaw State (65.7%)
Seton Hall (16-7) 81, USC (17-6) 83 [2] 72-77 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 146.0		 USC (64.6%) DOG
Montana (13-10) 87, Oakland (14-11) 95 [8] 72-85 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 161.2		 Montana (64.2%)
UCLA (16-7) 72, California (17-6) 80 [8] 76-72 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET OVER 144.5		 UCLA (62.7%)
Morgan State (9-13) 66, Drexel (12-11) 71 [5] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 143.5		 Drexel (62.6%)
Syracuse (13-10) 60, Kansas #11 (17-5) 71 [11] 63-73 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 147.5		 Kansas (62.5%)
UNC Asheville (11-13) 73, Tennessee State (14-8) 75 [2] 72-77 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 162.5		 UNC Asheville (61.9%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 60, Central Arkansas (13-10) 81 [21] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 139.5		 Central Arkansas (60.6%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 68, Hampton (10-13) 74 [6] 69-67 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 125.5		 Hampton (60.6%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 64, UTSA (4-18) 77 [13] 71-84 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 160.5		 Georgia Southern (60.0%)
Boise State (14-9) 70, NC State (17-6) 81 [11] 76-73 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 152.5		 NC State (59.7%)
Utah (9-13) 58, Grand Canyon (15-7) 68 [10] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 159.5		 Grand Canyon (59.1%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 58, William & Mary (14-8) 92 [34] 72-73 ✗ MAE: 17.1
BET UNDER 147.5		 Abilene Christian (58.2%)
San José State (6-16) 51, Tulsa (20-3) 81 [30] 74-74 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET UNDER 150.5		 Tulsa (58.2%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 69, Iowa (17-5) 74 [5] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 144.2		 Iowa (58.1%)
Houston #8 (20-2) 73, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 76 [3] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 135.2		 Houston (57.9%)
Georgia State (9-15) 63, Samford (11-12) 78 [15] 78-77 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 151.5		 Samford (57.9%)
Omaha (12-12) 77, James Madison (11-13) 88 [11] 70-78 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 152.8		 James Madison (56.3%)
Army (10-14) 67, East Texas A&M (8-15) 84 [17] 77-67 ✓ MAE: 3.4 East Texas A&M (55.6%)
George Washington (13-10) 95, Murray State (17-7) 96 [1] 82-88 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 167.5		 George Washington (54.9%)
Baylor (13-9) 81, St. John's #22 (17-5) 96 [15] 84-72 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 161.2		 St. John's (54.5%)
Bradley (16-8) 77, UC San Diego (15-8) 87 [10] 72-77 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET OVER 145.0		 Bradley (54.4%)
Ohio (13-11) 58, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 70 [12] 77-65 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 144.5		 Loyola Marymount (54.2%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 65, George Mason (20-3) 74 [9] 78-71 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 143.2		 George Mason (54.0%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 60, Delaware (6-16) 73 [13] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 146.5		 Delaware (53.9%) DOG
Jacksonville (9-14) 53, Pacific (15-10) 68 [15] 70-70 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET OVER 135.5		 Jacksonville (53.1%) DOG
Utah Tech (13-11) 63, Portland State (15-6) 68 [5] 75-81 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 147.0		 Utah Tech (52.3%) DOG
Cal Poly (9-14) 68, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 84 [16] 78-80 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 169.5		 Cal Poly (52.1%) DOG
Auburn (14-8) 72, Michigan #2 (20-1) 102 [30] 78-88 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET OVER 163.2		 Michigan (52.1%)
Creighton (12-11) 60, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 78 [18] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 152.2		 Iowa State (52.0%) DOG
South Dakota State (11-13) 52, Utah Valley (16-6) 75 [23] 72-71 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 151.8		 South Dakota State (51.2%) DOG
Houston Christian (8-15) 69, Bellarmine (9-13) 74 [5] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET OVER 145.5		 Bellarmine (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
70
Final results
70
Correct picks
51
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
72.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
56
Avg Confidence
73.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0476
Calibration Quality
Excellent
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
40
ML Win Rate
77.5%
ML Profit
$4
ML ROI
0.9%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
8
Wins
4
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$340
ROI
42.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$140
ROI
17.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$310
ROI
77.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
33
ATS Wins
17
ATS Losses
16
ATS Win Rate
51.5%
Spread Profit
$-5
Spread ROI
-1.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
48
Avg Confidence
62.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1529
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
46
O/U Wins
24
O/U Losses
22
O/U Win Rate
52.2%
O/U Profit
$-2
O/U ROI
-0.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.2%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
2
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$82
ROI
27.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Lehigh 55 @ Marist 78 Marist (73.8%) Marist -7.5 +9.2 +16.7 +23.0 COVERED
Coppin State 68 @ Rider 65 Rider (77.2%) Rider -9.5 +7.3 +16.8 -3.0 FAILED
Northern Illinois 59 @ Austin Peay 77 Austin Peay (75.1%) Austin Peay -7.0 +6.5 +13.5 +18.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
8
Wins
4
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$340
ROI
42.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
George Washington 95, Murray State 96 [1] George Washington 54.9% +260 +28.2% LOSS
UNC Greensboro 60, Delaware 73 [13] Delaware 53.9% N/A N/A WIN
Jacksonville 53, Pacific 68 [15] Jacksonville 53.1% +130 +11.4% LOSS
Utah Tech 63, Portland State 68 [5] Utah Tech 52.3% +115 +7.6% LOSS
Auburn 72, Michigan 102 [30] Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Creighton 60, Iowa State 78 [18] Iowa State 52.0% +360 +31.3% WIN
South Dakota State 52, Utah Valley 75 [23] South Dakota State 51.2% N/A N/A LOSS
Houston Christian 69, Bellarmine 74 [5] Bellarmine 50.5% +130 +8.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$140
ROI
17.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Creighton 60, Iowa State 78 [18] Iowa State 52.0% +360 +31.3% WIN
George Washington 95, Murray State 96 [1] George Washington 54.9% +260 +28.2% LOSS
Auburn 72, Michigan 102 [30] Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Jacksonville 53, Pacific 68 [15] Jacksonville 53.1% +130 +11.4% LOSS
Houston Christian 69, Bellarmine 74 [5] Bellarmine 50.5% +130 +8.5% WIN
Abilene Christian 58, William & Mary 92 [34] Abilene Christian 58.2% -110 +8.2% LOSS
UC Irvine 45, New Mexico State 57 [12] UC Irvine 66.5% -155 +7.7% LOSS
Utah Tech 63, Portland State 68 [5] Utah Tech 52.3% +115 +7.6% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$310
ROI
77.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Creighton 60, Iowa State 78 [18] Iowa State 52.0% +360 +31.3% WIN
George Washington 95, Murray State 96 [1] George Washington 54.9% +260 +28.2% LOSS
Auburn 72, Michigan 102 [30] Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Jacksonville 53, Pacific 68 [15] Jacksonville 53.1% +130 +11.4% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$160
ROI
53.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan State @ East Carolina East Carolina 26.2% +2500 +22.4% LOSS
Creighton @ Iowa State Iowa State 52.0% +360 +31.3% WIN
Murray State @ George Washington George Washington 54.9% +260 +28.2% LOSS