Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-26
All Games Summary
Total Picks
67
Final results
67
Correct picks
45
Incorrect picks
22
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (67)
New Orleans (11-13) 50, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 82 [32] 57-92 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 156.0		 Texas Tech (97.2%)
NJIT (11-12) 47, Louisville #24 (16-6) 104 [57] 54-92 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 158.0		 Louisville (96.9%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 54, Kentucky (16-7) 104 [50] 58-91 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 157.5		 Kentucky (96.8%)
Alabama State (7-15) 87, New Mexico (18-5) 93 [6] 67-89 ✗ MAE: 12.3
BET OVER 147.8		 New Mexico (95.8%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 56, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 64 [8] 59-75 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 145.5		 Cincinnati (95.7%)
Misericordia (0-2) 70, Cornell (10-10) 114 [44] 80-89 ✗ MAE: 17.2 Cornell (95.4%)
Texas Lutheran (0-2) 55, Incarnate Word (10-13) 117 [62] 65-81 ✗ MAE: 22.9 Incarnate Word (94.3%)
Georgia State (9-15) 58, New Mexico State (11-11) 77 [19] 66-81 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 136.8		 New Mexico State (88.4%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 57, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 70 [13] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 137.5		 UNC Wilmington (83.1%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 56, Houston #8 (20-2) 66 [10] 56-75 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 132.8		 Houston (83.1%)
Syracuse (13-10) 64, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 95 [31] 62-80 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 145.5		 Iowa State (82.5%)
Columbia International (0-2) 50, Presbyterian (11-13) 93 [43] 66-76 ✗ MAE: 16.2 Presbyterian (81.0%)
College Of Biblical Studies (0-9) 44, Texas Southern (6-14) 102 [58] 68-78 ✗ MAE: 23.9 Texas Southern (80.6%)
Denver (9-15) 59, Wyoming (13-10) 101 [42] 69-85 ✗ MAE: 13.2
O/U: 152.8		 Wyoming (80.2%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 56, Southern Indiana (5-17) 64 [8] 59-76 ✗ MAE: 12.8
BET UNDER 149.8		 Valparaiso (79.6%)
Maryland (8-13) 72, Alabama (15-7) 105 [33] 73-94 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 166.2		 Alabama (76.7%)
Marshall (15-8) 67, Lipscomb (15-9) 90 [23] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 15.4
BET UNDER 156.8		 Marshall (73.1%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 58, Memphis (10-11) 74 [16] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 156.5		 Memphis (72.0%)
VMI (6-18) 48, Bowling Green (14-9) 81 [33] 72-76 ✗ MAE: 18.3
O/U: 148.5		 VMI (71.8%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 71, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 82 [11] 79-80 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 150.5		 UNC Greensboro (70.7%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 51, Navy (18-6) 84 [33] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 15.1
BET UNDER 153.0		 Navy (70.6%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 78, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 83 [5] 87-78 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 169.5		 Vanderbilt (69.7%)
UIC (13-11) 74, Robert Morris (15-10) 88 [14] 66-74 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 150.8		 Robert Morris (68.6%) DOG
Long Beach State (8-15) 73, Portland (11-14) 93 [20] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 148.8		 Portland (68.5%)
Samford (11-12) 45, Utah Valley (16-6) 89 [44] 62-77 ✗ MAE: 14.6
BET UNDER 148.2		 Utah Valley (68.4%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 74, Utah (9-13) 75 [1] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 145.0		 Ole Miss (68.2%)
Tennessee #25 (16-6) 76, Kansas #11 (17-5) 81 [5] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 139.8		 Tennessee (67.8%)
Harvard (12-9) 60, Boston College (9-13) 73 [13] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET UNDER 138.5		 Boston College (66.7%)
App State (16-9) 67, Mercer (15-8) 75 [8] 69-74 ✓ MAE: 1.6
O/U: 143.5		 Mercer (66.3%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 62, Rice (10-13) 81 [19] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 152.5		 Rice (65.7%)
Grand Canyon (15-7) 46, Iowa (17-5) 59 [13] 73-70 ✗ MAE: 18.8
O/U: 144.0		 Iowa (65.1%)
Omaha (12-12) 61, Florida International (11-11) 74 [13] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 159.0		 Florida International (64.7%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 52, UC Irvine (15-7) 64 [12] 64-75 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 143.5		 UC Irvine (64.2%)
Wichita State (14-9) 65, Saint Mary's (20-4) 70 [5] 72-71 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 140.5		 Saint Mary's (63.9%)
Towson (13-11) 73, UC San Diego (15-8) 87 [14] 66-76 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 138.2		 UC San Diego (63.7%)
Washington State (11-14) 61, Seton Hall (16-7) 75 [14] 68-67 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 148.0		 Seton Hall (63.3%)
Manhattan (9-15) 101, Wagner (7-13) 103 [2] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 30.0
O/U: 144.8		 Manhattan (63.1%)
Chaminade (0-3) 76, Boise State (14-9) 102 [26] 84-76 ✗ MAE: 8.9 Chaminade (63.1%)
Indiana State (10-14) 73, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 75 [2] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 3.9
O/U: 142.5		 Louisiana Tech (62.0%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 73, Army (10-14) 81 [8] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 151.8		 Fairleigh Dickinson (61.5%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 53, Fresno State (11-11) 76 [23] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 150.5		 Fresno State (60.7%)
Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 72, Northern Arizona (8-15) 79 [7] 74-75 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 153.5		 Northern Arizona (60.0%)
Wofford (16-8) 83, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 93 [10] 73-82 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 150.0		 Northern Kentucky (59.5%)
Arizona State (12-11) 75, USC (17-6) 88 [13] 84-81 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 163.0		 USC (58.2%)
New Hampshire (8-13) 47, Brown (7-13) 59 [12] 68-64 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 137.2		 Brown (58.0%)
Stonehill (9-14) 64, UMass Lowell (9-14) 75 [11] 70-63 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 148.8		 Stonehill (58.0%)
Toledo (12-11) 72, Belmont (21-3) 87 [15] 77-82 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 163.5		 Toledo (58.0%)
Cal State Northridge (13-10) 64, Idaho (13-9) 78 [14] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 159.5		 Cal State Northridge (57.6%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 100, Kennesaw State (14-8) 102 [2] 77-82 ✗ MAE: 21.4
O/U: 160.2		 Florida Gulf Coast (57.3%)
Princeton (8-14) 74, Vermont (14-9) 79 [5] 74-66 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 140.2		 Vermont (56.5%)
Liberty (19-3) 64, Bradley (16-8) 74 [10] 78-70 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET OVER 145.5		 Liberty (56.0%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 51, San José State (6-16) 63 [12] 67-63 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 137.5		 Loyola Chicago (55.9%)
Air Force (3-19) 53, Northern Colorado (13-10) 71 [18] 71-73 ✗ MAE: 10.3
O/U: 146.2		 Northern Colorado (54.9%)
Bucknell (8-16) 71, Buffalo (14-9) 73 [2] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 146.5		 Buffalo (54.8%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 64, Troy (16-8) 74 [10] 75-66 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 151.5		 Troy (52.7%) DOG
South Florida (15-8) 66, VCU (17-6) 78 [12] 78-85 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 173.0		 VCU (52.3%) DOG
The Citadel (8-15) 65, Houston Christian (8-15) 72 [7] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 137.2		 The Citadel (52.3%)
NC State (17-6) 97, Texas (14-9) 102 [5] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 19.4
O/U: 161.5		 Texas (51.4%) DOG
Fairfield (14-10) 77, Columbia (14-7) 106 [29] 80-77 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET OVER 150.5		 Columbia (51.3%)
Colorado State (12-10) 64, Virginia Tech (16-7) 66 [2] 75-77 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 154.5		 Colorado State (51.2%) DOG
St. John's #22 (17-5) 74, Auburn (14-8) 85 [11] 79-84 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 166.5		 Auburn (51.1%) DOG
Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 61, Michigan #2 (20-1) 101 [40] 82-88 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET OVER 165.2		 Michigan (51.1%) DOG
Temple (14-8) 75, Rhode Island (13-9) 90 [15] 64-71 ✗ MAE: 15.1
BET UNDER 151.0		 Temple (51.0%) DOG
San Diego State (16-6) 81, Baylor (13-9) 91 [10] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 148.8		 San Diego State (50.9%) DOG
Jacksonville State (11-10) 43, North Dakota State (19-5) 56 [13] 67-73 ✗ MAE: 20.6
O/U: 142.2		 Jacksonville State (50.6%) DOG
Northern Iowa (14-9) 60, Tulsa (20-3) 63 [3] 63-70 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 137.5		 Tulsa (50.5%) DOG
Idaho State (10-13) 81, Sam Houston (16-7) 84 [3] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 142.5		 Idaho State (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
67
Final results
67
Correct picks
45
Incorrect picks
22
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
67
Avg Confidence
71.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0682
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
58
ML Win Rate
72.4%
ML Profit
$46
ML ROI
8.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
11
Wins
5
Losses
6
Pending
0
Win Rate
45.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2490
ROI
226.4%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
18
Wins
10
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2672
ROI
148.4%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2497
ROI
416.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
43
ATS Wins
29
ATS Losses
14
ATS Win Rate
67.4%
Spread Profit
$124
Spread ROI
28.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+15.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
60
Avg Confidence
61.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1413
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
61
O/U Wins
37
O/U Losses
24
O/U Win Rate
60.7%
O/U Profit
$96
O/U ROI
15.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+8.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
2
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-18
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
75.0%
O/U Profit
$173
O/U ROI
43.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+22.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Syracuse 64 @ Iowa State #7 95 Iowa State (82.5%) Iowa State -10.2 +7.8 +18.0 +31.0 COVERED
Southern Indiana 64 @ Valparaiso 56 Valparaiso (79.6%) Valparaiso -9.8 +7.8 +17.5 -8.0 FAILED
Notre Dame 56 @ Houston #8 66 Houston (83.1%) Houston -11.5 +7.6 +19.1 +10.0 FAILED
Denver 59 @ Wyoming 101 Wyoming (80.2%) Wyoming -9.2 +6.4 +15.6 +42.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
11
Wins
5
Losses
6
Pending
0
Win Rate
45.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2490
ROI
226.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 64, Troy 74 [10] Troy 52.7% +2500 +49.0% WIN
South Florida 66, VCU 78 [12] VCU 52.3% +125 +9.4% WIN
The Citadel 65, Houston Christian 72 [7] The Citadel 52.3% +157 +14.9% LOSS
NC State 97, Texas 102 [5] Texas 51.4% +130 +9.4% WIN
Colorado State 64, Virginia Tech 66 [2] Colorado State 51.2% +150 +12.6% LOSS
St. John's 74, Auburn 85 [11] Auburn 51.1% +215 +20.5% WIN
Temple 75, Rhode Island 90 [15] Temple 51.0% +130 +8.9% LOSS
San Diego State 81, Baylor 91 [10] San Diego State 50.9% +112 +5.7% LOSS
Jacksonville State 43, North Dakota State 56 [13] Jacksonville State 50.6% +132 +9.2% LOSS
Northern Iowa 60, Tulsa 63 [3] Tulsa 50.5% +120 +5.9% WIN
Idaho State 81, Sam Houston 84 [3] Idaho State 50.5% +125 +7.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
18
Wins
10
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2672
ROI
148.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 64, Troy 74 [10] Troy 52.7% +2500 +49.0% WIN
St. John's 74, Auburn 85 [11] Auburn 51.1% +215 +20.5% WIN
Ole Miss 74, Utah 75 [1] Ole Miss 68.2% -175 +16.7% LOSS
The Citadel 65, Houston Christian 72 [7] The Citadel 52.3% +157 +14.9% LOSS
Colorado State 64, Virginia Tech 66 [2] Colorado State 51.2% +150 +12.6% LOSS
Towson 73, UC San Diego 87 [14] UC San Diego 63.7% -122 +10.9% WIN
South Florida 66, VCU 78 [12] VCU 52.3% +125 +9.4% WIN
NC State 97, Texas 102 [5] Texas 51.4% +130 +9.4% WIN
Jacksonville State 43, North Dakota State 56 [13] Jacksonville State 50.6% +132 +9.2% LOSS
Temple 75, Rhode Island 90 [15] Temple 51.0% +130 +8.9% LOSS
Southeast Missouri State 72, Northern Arizona 79 [7] Northern Arizona 60.0% -115 +8.9% WIN
Cal State Northridge 64, Idaho 78 [14] Cal State Northridge 57.6% -110 +7.6% LOSS
Idaho State 81, Sam Houston 84 [3] Idaho State 50.5% +125 +7.6% LOSS
Pepperdine 53, Fresno State 76 [23] Fresno State 60.7% -130 +6.4% WIN
Indiana State 73, Louisiana Tech 75 [2] Louisiana Tech 62.0% -137 +6.3% WIN
Northern Iowa 60, Tulsa 63 [3] Tulsa 50.5% +120 +5.9% WIN
Omaha 61, Florida International 74 [13] Florida International 64.7% -157 +5.7% WIN
San Diego State 81, Baylor 91 [10] San Diego State 50.9% +112 +5.7% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2497
ROI
416.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 64, Troy 74 [10] Troy 52.7% +2500 +49.0% WIN
St. John's 74, Auburn 85 [11] Auburn 51.1% +215 +20.5% WIN
Ole Miss 74, Utah 75 [1] Ole Miss 68.2% -175 +16.7% LOSS
The Citadel 65, Houston Christian 72 [7] The Citadel 52.3% +157 +14.9% LOSS
Colorado State 64, Virginia Tech 66 [2] Colorado State 51.2% +150 +12.6% LOSS
Towson 73, UC San Diego 87 [14] UC San Diego 63.7% -122 +10.9% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$2300
ROI
766.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) @ Troy Troy 52.7% +2500 +49.0% WIN
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 30.3% +1500 +24.3% LOSS
Navy @ Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb 29.4% +625 +16.2% LOSS