Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-27
All Games Summary
Total Picks
20
Final results
20
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (20)
Florida #17 (16-6) 80, TCU (13-9) 84 [4] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 156.5		 Florida (83.0%)
East Carolina (7-15) 58, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 67 [9] 70-69 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 144.5		 St. Bonaventure (69.6%)
Charlotte (13-10) 69, Illinois State (15-8) 79 [10] 64-76 ✓ MAE: 3.9
O/U: 139.2		 Illinois State (67.9%)
Arkansas #21 (16-6) 71, Duke #4 (21-1) 80 [9] 87-79 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 160.2		 Duke (66.9%)
Miami (17-5) 62, BYU #16 (17-5) 72 [10] 83-77 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET UNDER 164.8		 BYU (64.4%)
Northwestern (10-13) 81, Oklahoma State (16-6) 86 [5] 74-85 ✓ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 159.2		 Northwestern (63.4%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 91, South Florida (15-8) 97 [6] 82-84 ✗ MAE: 11.0
O/U: 167.8		 Western Kentucky (61.1%) DOG
Providence (10-13) 83, Wisconsin (16-6) 104 [21] 77-85 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 166.8		 Wisconsin (59.0%)
Wichita State (14-9) 70, Colorado State (12-10) 76 [6] 67-72 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 143.0		 Colorado State (58.8%)
Santa Clara (20-5) 70, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 71 [1] 75-83 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 159.2		 Saint Louis (56.1%)
North Carolina #14 (18-4) 58, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 74 [16] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 12.1
BET UNDER 151.8		 North Carolina (56.0%) DOG
Oregon (8-14) 66, Creighton (12-11) 76 [10] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 150.5		 Creighton (53.3%)
VCU (17-6) 74, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 89 [15] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 161.5		 Vanderbilt (53.0%)
San Francisco (14-11) 69, Colorado (13-10) 79 [10] 69-77 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 150.5		 Colorado (52.7%) DOG
Georgetown (13-10) 79, Dayton (15-8) 84 [5] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET OVER 145.5		 Dayton (52.4%)
UNLV (10-12) 65, Rutgers (9-14) 80 [15] 72-63 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 153.8		 UNLV (51.3%)
Minnesota (11-12) 68, Stanford (14-9) 72 [4] 66-71 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 142.5		 Minnesota (51.0%) DOG
Virginia Tech (16-7) 66, Saint Mary's (20-4) 77 [11] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 7.6
O/U: 143.5		 Virginia Tech (50.8%) DOG
Nevada (16-7) 66, Washington (12-11) 83 [17] 74-70 ✗ MAE: 10.4
O/U: 145.0		 Nevada (50.7%)
Richmond (13-10) 72, Furman (16-8) 73 [1] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 146.8		 Furman (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
20
Final results
20
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
20
Avg Confidence
63.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0923
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
19
ML Win Rate
68.4%
ML Profit
$18
ML ROI
9.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
8
Wins
7
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
87.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$818
ROI
102.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
5
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$718
ROI
119.6%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$600
ROI
200.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
14
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
5
ATS Win Rate
64.3%
Spread Profit
$32
Spread ROI
22.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
16
Avg Confidence
55.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2320
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
20
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
8
O/U Win Rate
60.0%
O/U Profit
$29
O/U ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
8
Wins
7
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
87.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$818
ROI
102.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Providence 83, Wisconsin 104 [21] Wisconsin 59.0% +235 +30.3% WIN
Wichita State 70, Colorado State 76 [6] Colorado State 58.8% N/A N/A WIN
Oregon 66, Creighton 76 [10] Creighton 53.3% +105 +6.6% WIN
VCU 74, Vanderbilt 89 [15] Vanderbilt 53.0% +210 +22.0% WIN
San Francisco 69, Colorado 79 [10] Colorado 52.7% +100 +4.9% WIN
Georgetown 79, Dayton 84 [5] Dayton 52.4% +112 +7.2% WIN
Minnesota 68, Stanford 72 [4] Minnesota 51.0% +105 +4.2% LOSS
Richmond 72, Furman 73 [1] Furman 50.5% +155 +12.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
5
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$718
ROI
119.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Providence 83, Wisconsin 104 [21] Wisconsin 59.0% +235 +30.3% WIN
VCU 74, Vanderbilt 89 [15] Vanderbilt 53.0% +210 +22.0% WIN
Richmond 72, Furman 73 [1] Furman 50.5% +155 +12.8% WIN
Georgetown 79, Dayton 84 [5] Dayton 52.4% +112 +7.2% WIN
Oregon 66, Creighton 76 [10] Creighton 53.3% +105 +6.6% WIN
Northwestern 81, Oklahoma State 86 [5] Northwestern 63.4% -145 +6.3% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$600
ROI
200.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Providence 83, Wisconsin 104 [21] Wisconsin 59.0% +235 +30.3% WIN
VCU 74, Vanderbilt 89 [15] Vanderbilt 53.0% +210 +22.0% WIN
Richmond 72, Furman 73 [1] Furman 50.5% +155 +12.8% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$345
ROI
115.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Providence @ Wisconsin Wisconsin 59.0% +235 +30.3% WIN
Duke @ Arkansas Arkansas 33.1% +427 +15.2% LOSS
VCU @ Vanderbilt Vanderbilt 53.0% +210 +22.0% WIN