Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-28
All Games Summary
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (53)
Alabama A&M (12-10) 56, Clemson #20 (19-4) 92 [36] 52-81 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 140.5		 Clemson (97.0%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 59, Missouri (15-7) 86 [27] 68-90 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 170.2		 Missouri (97.0%)
Queens University (12-11) 69, Virginia #18 (19-3) 94 [25] 65-91 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 160.5		 Virginia (97.0%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 62, Purdue #12 (18-4) 109 [47] 51-90 ✗ MAE: 15.0
O/U: 141.5		 Purdue (96.8%)
Jarvis Christian (0-2) 55, Abilene Christian (10-11) 87 [32] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 10.1 Abilene Christian (94.3%)
Northeastern (6-15) 73, Wake Forest (11-11) 86 [13] 69-90 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 153.2		 Wake Forest (94.3%)
North Dakota (13-12) 55, Hawai'i (16-5) 92 [37] 60-86 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 149.8		 Hawai'i (93.6%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 62, South Carolina (11-12) 74 [12] 70-85 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET OVER 150.0		 South Carolina (93.0%)
Chicago State (2-19) 64, Youngstown State (12-12) 87 [23] 62-83 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 146.5		 Youngstown State (90.6%)
NJIT (11-12) 55, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 73 [18] 62-79 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 141.5		 Eastern Michigan (90.1%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 67, Xavier (12-11) 88 [21] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 147.0		 Xavier (89.8%)
Providence (10-13) 78, Florida #17 (16-6) 90 [12] 68-88 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 169.2		 Florida (89.1%)
Wright State (15-9) 69, Butler (13-10) 94 [25] 71-80 ✓ MAE: 7.6
O/U: 150.5		 Butler (89.0%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 74, Davidson (13-9) 90 [16] 63-80 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET UNDER 145.5		 Davidson (88.3%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 54, Robert Morris (15-10) 61 [7] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET UNDER 152.5		 Robert Morris (81.6%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 68, Stony Brook (14-9) 71 [3] 61-71 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 139.0		 Loyola Marymount (80.9%)
Navy (18-6) 57, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 87 [30] 59-72 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 139.5		 UNC Wilmington (75.7%)
Nicholls (10-13) 72, Tulane (13-9) 82 [10] 75-77 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 148.5		 Tulane (75.2%)
Texas State (14-11) 52, Seattle U (15-9) 66 [14] 63-74 ✗ MAE: 9.7
O/U: 135.8		 Seattle U (74.5%)
Maine (5-18) 61, American University (13-11) 74 [13] 59-72 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 132.8		 American University (73.8%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 68, SE Louisiana (6-17) 76 [8] 69-68 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET UNDER 141.8		 SE Louisiana (67.5%)
Merrimack (14-9) 65, Pennsylvania (10-10) 77 [12] 67-73 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 153.0		 Pennsylvania (67.3%)
Indiana State (10-14) 74, Alcorn State (4-17) 81 [7] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 151.5		 Indiana State (67.2%)
Louisiana (8-16) 45, Jackson State (6-16) 51 [6] 59-61 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 136.5		 Louisiana (65.8%)
Lehigh (10-14) 70, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 72 [2] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 147.0		 Lehigh (65.7%)
Charlotte (13-10) 66, Richmond (13-10) 71 [5] 78-74 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 142.0		 Richmond (65.4%)
Dayton (15-8) 79, BYU #16 (17-5) 83 [4] 73-69 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 150.5		 BYU (65.0%)
Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 77, Stanford (14-9) 78 [1] 74-84 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 160.0		 Saint Louis (62.9%)
Furman (16-8) 65, Illinois State (15-8) 72 [7] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Illinois State (62.9%)
Ball State (7-15) 73, Monmouth (11-12) 80 [7] 63-69 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET UNDER 137.2		 Ball State (61.9%)
Drake (12-12) 62, LSU (14-8) 71 [9] 76-72 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 151.5		 LSU (61.7%)
Virginia Tech (16-7) 68, VCU (17-6) 86 [18] 71-83 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 152.5		 VCU (60.1%)
UAlbany (7-16) 67, Colgate (14-10) 69 [2] 77-75 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 141.5		 Colgate (60.1%)
Florida State (10-12) 59, Texas A&M (17-5) 95 [36] 82-80 ✗ MAE: 17.1
BET UNDER 174.8		 Florida State (59.9%)
Lafayette (7-17) 63, Le Moyne (11-12) 76 [13] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 151.0		 Lafayette (59.3%)
Saint Mary's (20-4) 71, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 96 [25] 71-82 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 149.5		 Vanderbilt (58.2%)
Wisconsin (16-6) 63, TCU (13-9) 74 [11] 76-64 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 158.5		 Wisconsin (58.0%)
Ohio State (14-7) 66, Pittsburgh (9-14) 67 [1] 79-71 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 148.5		 Ohio State (57.7%)
North Dakota State (19-5) 80, Arkansas State (14-10) 85 [5] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 160.5		 Arkansas State (57.3%)
San Francisco (14-11) 65, Nevada (16-7) 81 [16] 75-64 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 143.2		 San Francisco (56.9%)
Georgia Tech (11-12) 61, DePaul (12-11) 75 [14] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 146.0		 DePaul (56.1%)
Cal State Northridge (13-10) 50, Idaho State (10-13) 82 [32] 69-78 ✗ MAE: 11.8
O/U: 148.8		 Idaho State (55.9%)
Mississippi State (11-11) 81, SMU (15-7) 87 [6] 78-86 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 162.8		 Mississippi State (55.7%)
Longwood (13-12) 63, Siena (16-7) 70 [7] 74-66 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 146.2		 Longwood (55.5%)
Idaho (13-9) 68, Sam Houston (16-7) 94 [26] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 17.0
O/U: 154.2		 Idaho (55.4%)
Wichita State (14-9) 70, Western Kentucky (12-10) 75 [5] 79-73 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 155.0		 Wichita State (54.8%)
Georgetown (13-10) 65, Miami (17-5) 78 [13] 77-74 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 151.2		 Miami (54.6%)
South Florida (15-8) 68, Colorado State (12-10) 83 [15] 69-76 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 155.2		 South Florida (53.3%)
La Salle (7-16) 58, Hofstra (14-9) 63 [5] 70-67 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 139.0		 Hofstra (52.2%)
Illinois #5 (20-3) 61, UConn #3 (22-1) 74 [13] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 151.0		 UConn (52.1%)
Minnesota (11-12) 75, Santa Clara (20-5) 86 [11] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 139.2		 Santa Clara (51.8%) DOG
Marquette (8-15) 74, Oklahoma (11-12) 75 [1] 72-74 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET UNDER 163.0		 Marquette (50.9%) DOG
Washington (12-11) 68, Colorado (13-10) 81 [13] 74-78 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 151.5		 Colorado (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
53
Avg Confidence
69.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1225
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
48
ML Win Rate
62.5%
ML Profit
$-32
ML ROI
-6.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$238
ROI
47.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
11
Wins
6
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
54.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$121
ROI
11.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$312
ROI
156.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
38
ATS Wins
24
ATS Losses
14
ATS Win Rate
63.2%
Spread Profit
$78
Spread ROI
20.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.8%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
50
Avg Confidence
58.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1408
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
47
O/U Wins
28
O/U Losses
19
O/U Win Rate
59.6%
O/U Profit
$65
O/U ROI
13.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.2%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$238
ROI
47.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Florida 68, Colorado State 83 [15] South Florida 53.3% +100 +5.4% LOSS
Illinois 61, UConn 74 [13] UConn 52.1% +125 +9.2% WIN
Minnesota 75, Santa Clara 86 [11] Santa Clara 51.8% +150 +13.2% WIN
Marquette 74, Oklahoma 75 [1] Marquette 50.9% +110 +5.2% LOSS
Washington 68, Colorado 81 [13] Colorado 50.1% +162 +13.4% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
11
Wins
6
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
54.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$121
ROI
11.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Washington 68, Colorado 81 [13] Colorado 50.1% +162 +13.4% WIN
Minnesota 75, Santa Clara 86 [11] Santa Clara 51.8% +150 +13.2% WIN
Illinois 61, UConn 74 [13] UConn 52.1% +125 +9.2% WIN
Florida State 59, Texas A&M 95 [36] Florida State 59.9% -122 +7.1% LOSS
Virginia Tech 68, VCU 86 [18] VCU 60.1% -125 +6.9% WIN
Mississippi State 81, SMU 87 [6] Mississippi State 55.7% -105 +6.8% LOSS
Providence 78, Florida 90 [12] Florida 89.1% -662 +6.6% WIN
South Florida 68, Colorado State 83 [15] South Florida 53.3% +100 +5.4% LOSS
Cal State Northridge 50, Idaho State 82 [32] Idaho State 55.9% -112 +5.4% WIN
Idaho 68, Sam Houston 94 [26] Idaho 55.4% -110 +5.4% LOSS
Marquette 74, Oklahoma 75 [1] Marquette 50.9% +110 +5.2% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$312
ROI
156.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Washington 68, Colorado 81 [13] Colorado 50.1% +162 +13.4% WIN
Minnesota 75, Santa Clara 86 [11] Santa Clara 51.8% +150 +13.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$375
ROI
125.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
LSU @ Drake Drake 38.3% +625 +25.2% LOSS
UC Santa Barbara @ Lehigh UC Santa Barbara 34.3% +575 +20.2% WIN
BYU @ Dayton Dayton 35.0% +437 +17.3% LOSS