Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-29
All Games Summary
Total Picks
55
Final results
55
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (55)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 56, Indiana (15-8) 100 [44] 56-89 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 149.2		 Indiana (97.3%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 63, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 72 [9] 56-80 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 158.5		 Nebraska (97.3%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 81, Georgia (16-6) 123 [42] 66-107 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET OVER 160.5		 Georgia (96.8%)
VMI (6-18) 57, UCF (17-5) 82 [25] 64-94 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 158.5		 UCF (96.6%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 61, Arizona #1 (22-0) 98 [37] 59-90 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 146.2		 Arizona (96.5%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 62, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 88 [26] 56-80 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 145.5		 UNC Wilmington (95.6%)
Penn State-Shenango (0-4) 59, Kent State (17-6) 123 [64] 75-93 ✗ MAE: 22.8 Kent State (95.6%)
Carolina University (0-3) 61, North Carolina Central (8-12) 109 [48] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 17.0 North Carolina Central (94.5%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 79, Winthrop (17-8) 101 [22] 70-93 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET OVER 157.0		 Winthrop (94.5%)
Tennessee Wesleyan (0-2) 77, Tennessee State (14-8) 98 [21] 77-89 ✓ MAE: 4.8 Tennessee State (94.3%)
Montana State (13-10) 81, Utah State (19-3) 84 [3] 68-88 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 148.5		 Utah State (93.5%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 73, High Point (21-4) 93 [20] 70-93 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 160.0		 High Point (92.6%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 81, Akron (19-4) 105 [24] 78-88 ✗ MAE: 10.1
O/U: 167.8		 Akron (89.2%)
Little Rock (9-14) 65, Southern Illinois (10-13) 74 [9] 62-76 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 141.2		 Southern Illinois (88.7%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 59, Penn State (10-12) 90 [31] 69-85 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 160.2		 Penn State (88.6%)
Alcorn State (4-17) 58, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 83 [25] 57-76 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 138.2		 Louisiana Tech (88.4%)
Delaware State (6-15) 57, UMBC (13-8) 71 [14] 62-73 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 138.5		 UMBC (87.1%)
James Madison (11-13) 66, George Mason (20-3) 82 [16] 67-81 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET OVER 141.8		 George Mason (86.9%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 57, East Tennessee State (17-7) 80 [23] 63-79 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 144.5		 East Tennessee State (83.8%)
Kansas City (4-20) 61, Weber State (11-12) 82 [21] 67-83 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 155.5		 Weber State (82.4%)
Notre Dame (Md) (0-3) 75, Radford (13-12) 102 [27] 75-88 ✓ MAE: 7.3 Radford (81.1%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 54, Pacific (15-10) 68 [14] 62-78 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 146.5		 Pacific (81.0%)
Haskell (0-2) 55, Green Bay (13-12) 95 [40] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 15.8 Green Bay (81.0%)
Bryant (7-15) 53, Harvard (12-9) 56 [3] 59-74 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 139.0		 Harvard (75.5%)
Texas State (14-11) 74, Lehigh (10-14) 78 [4] 67-75 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 135.2		 Texas State (74.1%)
Boston University (9-15) 65, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 74 [9] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 144.0		 Northern Kentucky (70.9%)
Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 61, UT Arlington (14-7) 66 [5] 60-69 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 138.5		 UT Arlington (69.6%)
Maine (5-18) 61, Longwood (13-12) 65 [4] 59-67 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 138.5		 Longwood (68.8%)
Merrimack (14-9) 58, Hofstra (14-9) 78 [20] 58-70 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 136.0		 Hofstra (68.7%)
Oregon State (13-12) 69, California Baptist (16-6) 75 [6] 66-72 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 137.8		 Oregon State (68.5%)
Canisius (8-16) 53, Buffalo (14-9) 71 [18] 74-72 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 139.5		 Buffalo (67.4%)
Navy (18-6) 65, SE Louisiana (6-17) 69 [4] 58-72 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 136.5		 Navy (67.0%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 62, Georgia Southern (14-11) 80 [18] 67-84 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 149.5		 Georgia Southern (66.6%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 55, Valparaiso (11-12) 84 [29] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 146.0		 Valparaiso (65.8%)
La Salle (7-16) 71, Pennsylvania (10-10) 73 [2] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 149.0		 Pennsylvania (65.1%)
Monmouth (11-12) 79, Le Moyne (11-12) 83 [4] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 145.8		 Monmouth (62.6%)
Georgia Tech (11-12) 74, Drake (12-12) 84 [10] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET OVER 137.8		 Drake (62.5%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 69, Utah Tech (13-11) 77 [8] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 1.5
BET OVER 145.5		 Utah Tech (60.9%)
Elon (13-10) 84, Mercer (15-8) 91 [7] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 12.8
BET UNDER 159.8		 Elon (60.9%)
Seattle U (15-9) 71, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 74 [3] 64-73 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 142.8		 UC Santa Barbara (59.3%)
Morehead State (12-11) 80, IU Indianapolis (6-18) 85 [5] 78-79 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 181.5		 IU Indianapolis (59.2%)
Howard (14-9) 75, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 79 [4] 73-65 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 146.5		 Mount St. Mary's (58.7%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 61, Dartmouth (10-10) 87 [26] 65-76 ✗ MAE: 18.6
BET UNDER 144.0		 Saint Peter's (58.0%)
UAlbany (7-16) 68, Fordham (12-11) 88 [20] 76-62 ✗ MAE: 17.0
O/U: 138.5		 UAlbany (56.5%)
DePaul (12-11) 63, LSU (14-8) 96 [33] 70-79 ✗ MAE: 12.1
BET UNDER 153.2		 LSU (56.3%)
Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 77, Lipscomb (15-9) 88 [11] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 154.5		 Southeast Missouri State (55.3%)
Air Force (3-19) 63, South Dakota (13-12) 80 [17] 63-74 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 147.5		 South Dakota (55.2%)
Stetson (8-15) 68, Southern Utah (8-15) 70 [2] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 149.0		 Stetson (52.2%) DOG
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 77, Wofford (16-8) 83 [6] 74-76 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 153.5		 Eastern Kentucky (52.1%) DOG
Northwestern State (6-16) 73, Southern (9-13) 75 [2] 80-67 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 144.8		 Southern (52.1%)
Niagara (6-17) 66, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 70 [4] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 5.7
O/U: 142.2		 Niagara (51.1%) DOG
Manhattan (9-15) 78, Army (10-14) 81 [3] 76-65 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 151.5		 Army (50.9%) DOG
American University (13-11) 55, Siena (16-7) 59 [4] 61-67 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 138.2		 American University (50.4%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 69, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 83 [14] 71-78 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 161.5		 Cal State Fullerton (50.4%) DOG
Ball State (7-15) 37, Lafayette (7-17) 55 [18] 70-66 ✗ MAE: 22.1
BET UNDER 140.2		 Lafayette (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
55
Final results
55
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
55
Avg Confidence
73.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0971
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
42
ML Win Rate
69.0%
ML Profit
$-33
ML ROI
-7.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$422
ROI
46.9%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
4
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
44.4%
Profit ($100/bet)
$118
ROI
13.1%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$488
ROI
162.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
41
ATS Wins
21
ATS Losses
20
ATS Win Rate
51.2%
Spread Profit
$-9
Spread ROI
-2.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-1.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
50
Avg Confidence
62.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2168
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
43
O/U Wins
16
O/U Losses
27
O/U Win Rate
37.2%
O/U Profit
$-125
O/U ROI
-29.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-15.2%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Bryant 53 @ Harvard 56 Harvard (75.5%) Harvard -8.2 +7.0 +15.3 +3.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$422
ROI
46.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
DePaul 63, LSU 96 [33] LSU 56.3% +202 +24.5% WIN
Southeast Missouri State 77, Lipscomb 88 [11] Southeast Missouri State 55.3% N/A N/A LOSS
Air Force 63, South Dakota 80 [17] South Dakota 55.2% +140 +15.1% WIN
Stetson 68, Southern Utah 70 [2] Stetson 52.2% +112 +7.0% LOSS
Niagara 66, Detroit Mercy 70 [4] Niagara 51.1% +115 +6.4% LOSS
Manhattan 78, Army 81 [3] Army 50.9% +105 +4.2% WIN
American University 55, Siena 59 [4] American University 50.4% +117 +6.2% LOSS
Pepperdine 69, Cal State Fullerton 83 [14] Cal State Fullerton 50.4% +145 +11.0% WIN
Ball State 37, Lafayette 55 [18] Lafayette 50.1% +130 +7.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
4
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
44.4%
Profit ($100/bet)
$118
ROI
13.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
DePaul 63, LSU 96 [33] LSU 56.3% +202 +24.5% WIN
Air Force 63, South Dakota 80 [17] South Dakota 55.2% +140 +15.1% WIN
Pepperdine 69, Cal State Fullerton 83 [14] Cal State Fullerton 50.4% +145 +11.0% WIN
Ball State 37, Lafayette 55 [18] Lafayette 50.1% +130 +7.0% WIN
Stetson 68, Southern Utah 70 [2] Stetson 52.2% +112 +7.0% LOSS
Elon 84, Mercer 91 [7] Elon 60.9% -130 +6.6% LOSS
Niagara 66, Detroit Mercy 70 [4] Niagara 51.1% +115 +6.4% LOSS
American University 55, Siena 59 [4] American University 50.4% +117 +6.2% LOSS
Texas State 74, Lehigh 78 [4] Texas State 74.1% -250 +5.2% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$488
ROI
162.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
DePaul 63, LSU 96 [33] LSU 56.3% +202 +24.5% WIN
Air Force 63, South Dakota 80 [17] South Dakota 55.2% +140 +15.1% WIN
Pepperdine 69, Cal State Fullerton 83 [14] Cal State Fullerton 50.4% +145 +11.0% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$678
ROI
225.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
DePaul @ LSU LSU 56.3% +202 +24.5% WIN
Monmouth @ Le Moyne Le Moyne 37.4% +265 +11.2% WIN
UAlbany @ Fordham Fordham 43.5% +210 +12.4% WIN