Test Predictions Recap
2025-11-30
All Games Summary
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (29)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 38, West Virginia (14-8) 70 [32] 48-72 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 127.0		 West Virginia (96.8%)
SUNY-Oneonta (0-2) 62, UAlbany (7-16) 90 [28] 66-74 ✗ MAE: 9.5 UAlbany (94.4%)
Stonehill (9-14) 62, Quinnipiac (15-9) 76 [14] 61-75 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 148.5		 Quinnipiac (90.8%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 69, North Texas (12-11) 72 [3] 60-79 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 141.5		 North Texas (90.6%)
Stetson (8-15) 62, Robert Morris (15-10) 80 [18] 62-75 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 142.2		 Robert Morris (85.5%)
Wyoming (13-10) 72, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 76 [4] 66-83 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 152.5		 Texas Tech (82.5%)
New Hampshire (8-13) 68, Fairfield (14-10) 72 [4] 61-78 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 147.2		 Fairfield (82.0%)
Fresno State (11-11) 71, Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 76 [5] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 150.5		 Fresno State (81.5%)
Coppin State (3-21) 84, Loyola Maryland (9-15) 95 [11] 67-81 ✗ MAE: 15.3
BET OVER 142.8		 Loyola Maryland (81.3%)
Alabama A&M (12-10) 60, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 67 [7] 69-72 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 140.0		 Coastal Carolina (76.0%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 75, William & Mary (14-8) 88 [13] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 163.5		 William & Mary (76.0%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 64, Tennessee State (14-8) 70 [6] 73-77 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 157.0		 Chattanooga (68.5%)
The Citadel (8-15) 41, Presbyterian (11-13) 69 [28] 66-66 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 134.0		 The Citadel (66.6%)
Vermont (14-9) 74, Yale (16-4) 77 [3] 80-72 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET OVER 147.2		 Yale (65.8%)
Bucknell (8-16) 72, Cornell (10-10) 101 [29] 84-80 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET OVER 160.0		 Cornell (63.9%)
Maine (5-18) 60, Siena (16-7) 64 [4] 62-59 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 127.5		 Siena (63.5%)
Longwood (13-12) 66, American University (13-11) 92 [26] 67-75 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 148.0		 American University (62.7%)
App State (16-9) 55, UNC Asheville (11-13) 67 [12] 66-68 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 137.5		 UNC Asheville (62.4%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 65, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 70 [5] 71-78 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 146.2		 Florida Atlantic (61.2%)
La Salle (7-16) 60, Merrimack (14-9) 66 [6] 63-68 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 131.2		 La Salle (58.4%)
Fordham (12-11) 62, Colgate (14-10) 72 [10] 65-71 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 142.5		 Colgate (56.2%)
Princeton (8-14) 58, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 60 [2] 71-63 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 147.8		 Saint Joseph's (55.4%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 85, Ball State (7-15) 96 [11] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 16.9
BET OVER 141.8		 Ball State (52.8%) DOG
Pennsylvania (10-10) 60, Hofstra (14-9) 77 [17] 69-72 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 149.5		 Pennsylvania (51.8%) DOG
San Diego (10-15) 72, Long Beach State (8-15) 76 [4] 78-70 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 148.0		 Long Beach State (51.3%) DOG
UTSA (4-18) 58, South Alabama (16-7) 82 [24] 71-68 ✗ MAE: 10.6
O/U: 139.0		 UTSA (50.7%) DOG
Lafayette (7-17) 74, Monmouth (11-12) 88 [14] 71-63 ✗ MAE: 14.3
BET UNDER 141.5		 Lafayette (50.5%) DOG
San José State (6-16) 63, UC Irvine (15-7) 72 [9] 68-67 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 137.5		 San José State (50.2%) DOG
Charleston (15-8) 73, Belmont (21-3) 96 [23] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 14.8
O/U: 153.5		 Charleston (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
72.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1229
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
25
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$-53
ML ROI
-21.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-500
ROI
-71.4%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-175
ROI
-34.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
18
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-8
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
28
Avg Confidence
58.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2223
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
24
O/U Wins
15
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
62.5%
O/U Profit
$46
O/U ROI
19.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
New Hampshire 68 @ Fairfield 72 Fairfield (82.0%) Fairfield -11.0 +6.0 +17.0 +4.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-500
ROI
-71.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Le Moyne 85, Ball State 96 [11] Ball State 52.8% N/A N/A WIN
Pennsylvania 60, Hofstra 77 [17] Pennsylvania 51.8% +102 +4.6% LOSS
San Diego 72, Long Beach State 76 [4] Long Beach State 51.3% N/A N/A WIN
UTSA 58, South Alabama 82 [24] UTSA 50.7% +112 +5.4% LOSS
Lafayette 74, Monmouth 88 [14] Lafayette 50.5% +112 +5.2% LOSS
San José State 63, UC Irvine 72 [9] San José State 50.2% +105 +3.5% LOSS
Charleston 73, Belmont 96 [23] Charleston 50.1% +140 +10.0% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-175
ROI
-34.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Charleston 73, Belmont 96 [23] Charleston 50.1% +140 +10.0% LOSS
Old Dominion 75, William & Mary 88 [13] William & Mary 76.0% -260 +6.5% WIN
Fordham 62, Colgate 72 [10] Colgate 56.2% -115 +5.9% WIN
UTSA 58, South Alabama 82 [24] UTSA 50.7% +112 +5.4% LOSS
Lafayette 74, Monmouth 88 [14] Lafayette 50.5% +112 +5.2% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Wyoming @ Texas Tech Wyoming 17.5% +1800 +12.4% LOSS
Siena @ Maine Maine 36.5% +525 +21.3% LOSS
Coppin State @ Loyola Maryland Coppin State 18.7% +587 +4.9% LOSS