Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-01
All Games Summary
Total Picks
15
Final results
15
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (15)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 74, Xavier (12-11) 96 [22] 66-87 ✗ MAE: 8.7
O/U: 151.5		 Xavier (96.6%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 58, Cincinnati (11-11) 76 [18] 58-74 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET UNDER 142.5		 Cincinnati (95.9%)
Coe (0-2) 34, Northern Iowa (14-9) 99 [65] 54-70 ✗ MAE: 24.7 Northern Iowa (95.6%)
New Mexico Highlands (0-3) 47, New Mexico (18-5) 97 [50] 64-77 ✗ MAE: 18.6 New Mexico (95.6%)
Central State (OH) (0-2) 58, Toledo (12-11) 102 [44] 81-92 ✗ MAE: 16.9 Toledo (95.4%)
West Coast Baptist (0-3) 59, Southern Utah (8-15) 124 [65] 72-92 ✗ MAE: 22.9 Southern Utah (94.5%)
Portland (11-14) 72, Stanford (14-9) 94 [22] 64-85 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 155.5		 Stanford (93.2%)
Troy (16-8) 89, West Georgia (10-12) 93 [4] 72-89 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET OVER 148.5		 Troy (92.2%)
Temple (14-8) 56, Villanova (17-5) 74 [18] 66-77 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 148.5		 Villanova (89.5%)
Kansas State (10-12) 66, Bowling Green (14-9) 82 [16] 74-83 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 159.5		 Kansas State (86.7%)
California Baptist (16-6) 70, Colorado (13-10) 78 [8] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 0.5
O/U: 148.5		 Colorado (76.0%)
McNeese (18-5) 67, Incarnate Word (10-13) 71 [4] 73-69 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 145.0		 McNeese (70.0%)
Jacksonville State (11-10) 66, North Alabama (7-14) 73 [7] 62-73 ✗ MAE: 9.0
O/U: 134.5		 Jacksonville State (66.9%)
Delaware (6-16) 66, Iona (14-9) 89 [23] 68-73 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET UNDER 149.5		 Delaware (50.8%) DOG
UAB (14-8) 61, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 76 [15] 69-75 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 153.5		 Middle Tennessee (50.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
15
Final results
15
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
15
Avg Confidence
84.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1529
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
10
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$-174
ML ROI
-17.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$25
ROI
12.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$25
ROI
12.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
5
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
3
ATS Win Rate
40.0%
Spread Profit
$-118
Spread ROI
-23.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
11
Avg Confidence
51.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3796
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
11
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
5
O/U Win Rate
54.5%
O/U Profit
$45
O/U ROI
4.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+2.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$25
ROI
12.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Delaware 66, Iona 89 [23] Delaware 50.8% +110 +5.1% LOSS
UAB 61, Middle Tennessee 76 [15] Middle Tennessee 50.7% +125 +7.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$25
ROI
12.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UAB 61, Middle Tennessee 76 [15] Middle Tennessee 50.7% +125 +7.8% WIN
Delaware 66, Iona 89 [23] Delaware 50.8% +110 +5.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$290
ROI
96.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
McNeese @ Incarnate Word Incarnate Word 30.0% +490 +13.7% WIN
California Baptist @ Colorado California Baptist 24.0% +550 +9.3% LOSS
St. Francis (PA) @ Xavier St. Francis (PA) 3.4% +3250 +0.5% LOSS