Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-02
All Games Summary
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
41
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (53)
Sacramento State (9-13) 88, Baylor (13-9) 110 [22] 59-96 ✗ MAE: 21.4
BET UNDER 158.5		 Baylor (96.7%)
Stetson (8-15) 45, Grand Canyon (15-7) 67 [22] 52-80 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET UNDER 142.0		 Grand Canyon (96.5%)
SUNY-Maritime (0-2) 53, Yale (16-4) 117 [64] 69-84 ✗ MAE: 24.9 Yale (95.6%)
Wagner (7-13) 63, Maryland (8-13) 89 [26] 62-76 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 143.2		 Maryland (95.2%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 64, Providence (10-13) 94 [30] 60-86 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 162.2		 Providence (95.2%)
Nicholls (10-13) 76, Creighton (12-11) 96 [20] 67-82 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET OVER 143.8		 Creighton (94.4%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 72, Marquette (8-15) 75 [3] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 147.0		 Marquette (94.3%)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 68, Butler (13-10) 84 [16] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 153.2		 Butler (93.8%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 57, Drake (12-12) 108 [51] 61-87 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 138.0		 Drake (93.7%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 62, Western Carolina (8-14) 124 [62] 83-102 ✗ MAE: 21.5 Western Carolina (93.5%)
Morehead State (12-11) 52, Murray State (17-7) 84 [32] 65-84 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 158.5		 Murray State (92.8%)
Campbell (10-13) 76, Penn State (10-12) 87 [11] 72-83 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 156.0		 Penn State (89.4%)
Sam Houston (16-7) 83, Oklahoma State (16-6) 93 [10] 80-90 ✓ MAE: 2.6
O/U: 169.2		 Oklahoma State (89.2%)
Jackson State (6-16) 73, Kennesaw State (14-8) 88 [15] 72-86 ✓ MAE: 1.5
O/U: 157.8		 Kennesaw State (89.0%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 75, North Texas (12-11) 77 [2] 58-74 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 127.8		 North Texas (88.1%)
Brown (7-13) 56, Rhode Island (13-9) 66 [10] 60-71 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 138.5		 Rhode Island (87.2%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 56, East Carolina (7-15) 68 [12] 57-71 ✓ MAE: 1.9
O/U: 127.5		 East Carolina (87.1%)
Grambling (10-11) 63, Tulane (13-9) 65 [2] 63-69 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 150.0		 Tulane (84.7%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 82, Jacksonville (9-14) 85 [3] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 137.8		 Jacksonville (84.5%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 71, Dayton (15-8) 88 [17] 63-76 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 140.5		 Dayton (83.1%)
Cornell (10-10) 81, George Mason (20-3) 99 [18] 78-88 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 155.2		 George Mason (82.2%)
Georgia State (9-15) 67, Mercer (15-8) 78 [11] 68-81 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 155.5		 Mercer (82.0%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 77, UNC Asheville (11-13) 82 [5] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 7.9
O/U: 143.5		 UNC Asheville (80.3%)
Florida #17 (16-6) 66, Duke #4 (21-1) 67 [1] 71-76 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 157.0		 Duke (80.2%)
Stonehill (9-14) 65, Bryant (7-15) 77 [12] 62-70 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 134.0		 Bryant (75.4%)
Utah (9-13) 72, California (17-6) 79 [7] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 2.0
O/U: 151.2		 California (75.4%)
Washington State (11-14) 60, Bradley (16-8) 64 [4] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 148.8		 Bradley (74.9%)
Rutgers (9-14) 65, Purdue #12 (18-4) 81 [16] 77-70 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 146.0		 Purdue (70.7%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 64, Lindenwood (14-10) 99 [35] 77-71 ✗ MAE: 14.2
O/U: 147.5		 Northern Illinois (69.8%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 57, Charlotte (13-10) 74 [17] 67-84 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 145.0		 Charlotte (68.2%)
Kentucky (16-7) 64, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 67 [3] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 164.0		 Kentucky (67.7%)
Duquesne (13-10) 79, William & Mary (14-8) 83 [4] 74-86 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 170.5		 Duquesne (65.7%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 72, Loyola Chicago (6-18) 83 [11] 69-66 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 139.8		 Loyola Chicago (65.5%)
North Florida (5-18) 63, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 72 [9] 73-75 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 153.2		 SIU Edwardsville (64.7%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 66, Miami (17-5) 75 [9] 71-73 ✓ MAE: 5.3
O/U: 145.0		 Ole Miss (64.7%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 56, UT Martin (18-5) 73 [17] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 148.0		 UT Martin (64.6%)
Long Island University (14-8) 92, Winthrop (17-8) 94 [2] 85-76 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET OVER 153.8		 Winthrop (63.4%)
Wake Forest (11-11) 68, Oklahoma (11-12) 86 [18] 76-78 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 159.5		 Wake Forest (63.4%)
Iowa (17-5) 52, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 71 [19] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 133.5		 Michigan State (62.8%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 70, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 91 [21] 76-77 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 149.0		 Saint Louis (62.7%)
UT Arlington (14-7) 63, Arkansas State (14-10) 83 [20] 65-77 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 152.8		 Arkansas State (61.8%)
Tennessee #25 (16-6) 60, Syracuse (13-10) 62 [2] 68-69 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 147.5		 Tennessee (61.7%)
UC San Diego (15-8) 70, Nevada (16-7) 76 [6] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 149.8		 Nevada (59.5%)
South Carolina (11-12) 83, Virginia Tech (16-7) 86 [3] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 9.8
O/U: 149.5		 South Carolina (57.2%)
Army (10-14) 70, George Washington (13-10) 84 [14] 82-69 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET UNDER 155.5		 Army (57.0%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 63, Abilene Christian (10-11) 71 [8] 65-70 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 137.8		 Pepperdine (55.9%)
Missouri (15-7) 71, Notre Dame (11-12) 76 [5] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 146.5		 Notre Dame (52.5%) DOG
Florida State (10-12) 73, Georgia (16-6) 107 [34] 87-88 ✗ MAE: 17.6
O/U: 176.0		 Florida State (52.4%)
Lehigh (10-14) 71, Binghamton (5-18) 80 [9] 75-69 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET OVER 139.5		 Lehigh (52.3%)
Kansas #11 (17-5) 56, UConn #3 (22-1) 61 [5] 63-70 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 141.5		 Kansas (51.6%) DOG
Oregon (8-14) 77, USC (17-6) 82 [5] 83-72 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 154.5		 USC (51.1%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 73, Texas A&M (17-5) 81 [8] 78-73 ✓ MAE: 1.9
O/U: 152.2		 Texas A&M (50.8%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 75, South Alabama (16-7) 77 [2] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET OVER 136.0		 South Alabama (50.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
41
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
53
Avg Confidence
76.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1285
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
40
ML Win Rate
65.0%
ML Profit
$-612
ML ROI
-15.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-80
ROI
-26.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-280
ROI
-56.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
41
ATS Wins
16
ATS Losses
25
ATS Win Rate
39.0%
Spread Profit
$-1046
Spread ROI
-25.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-13.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
51
Avg Confidence
61.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2712
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
47
O/U Wins
25
O/U Losses
22
O/U Win Rate
53.2%
O/U Profit
$72
O/U ROI
1.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-80
ROI
-26.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida State 73, Georgia 107 [34] Florida State 52.4% +115 +7.6% LOSS
Kansas 56, UConn 61 [5] Kansas 51.6% +107 +5.2% LOSS
New Mexico State 75, South Alabama 77 [2] South Alabama 50.7% +120 +6.9% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-280
ROI
-56.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida State 73, Georgia 107 [34] Florida State 52.4% +115 +7.6% LOSS
New Mexico State 75, South Alabama 77 [2] South Alabama 50.7% +120 +6.9% WIN
Pepperdine 63, Abilene Christian 71 [8] Pepperdine 55.9% -110 +5.9% LOSS
Kansas 56, UConn 61 [5] Kansas 51.6% +107 +5.2% LOSS
South Carolina 83, Virginia Tech 86 [3] South Carolina 57.2% -120 +5.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Purdue @ Rutgers Rutgers 29.3% +950 +20.2% LOSS
SIU Edwardsville @ North Florida North Florida 35.3% +280 +10.2% LOSS
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte North Carolina A&T 31.8% +320 +9.1% LOSS