Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-03
All Games Summary
Total Picks
74
Final results
74
Correct picks
56
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (74)
Alcorn State (4-17) 68, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 132 [64] 55-98 ✗ MAE: 23.9
O/U: 151.8		 Iowa State (96.9%)
Coppin State (3-21) 49, West Virginia (14-8) 91 [42] 51-87 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 134.2		 West Virginia (96.9%)
Bucknell (8-16) 77, Akron (19-4) 97 [20] 69-91 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 157.2		 Akron (96.8%)
Utah Tech (13-11) 80, Santa Clara (20-5) 90 [10] 69-91 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 145.0		 Santa Clara (96.8%)
California Baptist (16-6) 60, BYU #16 (17-5) 91 [31] 61-89 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 153.5		 BYU (95.5%)
UMBC (13-8) 81, Georgetown (13-10) 90 [9] 71-83 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 148.5		 Georgetown (94.4%)
Howard Payne (0-2) 54, Tarleton State (11-11) 119 [65] 80-96 ✗ MAE: 24.5 Tarleton State (94.3%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 61, Seton Hall (16-7) 77 [16] 58-71 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 128.8		 Seton Hall (93.5%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 45, App State (16-9) 133 [88] 77-98 ✗ MAE: 33.3 App State (93.1%)
UIC (13-11) 62, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 63 [1] 70-83 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 163.0		 UIC (91.0%)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 62, James Madison (11-13) 67 [5] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 144.2		 James Madison (89.5%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 74, Queens University (12-11) 107 [33] 72-92 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 161.5		 Queens University (89.4%)
San Francisco (14-11) 63, North Alabama (7-14) 65 [2] 57-76 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 145.5		 San Francisco (88.9%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 78, Illinois State (15-8) 89 [11] 65-84 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 152.8		 Illinois State (88.1%)
Louisiana (8-16) 55, Lamar (12-11) 65 [10] 55-70 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 129.5		 Lamar (86.1%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 80, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 95 [15] 72-85 ✗ MAE: 9.3
O/U: 158.0		 Northern Kentucky (85.7%)
Marshall (15-8) 69, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 70 [1] 62-76 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 150.5		 UNC Wilmington (82.5%)
North Dakota (13-12) 58, Idaho (13-9) 90 [32] 68-84 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 151.5		 Idaho (81.2%)
Vermont State - Johnson (0-3) 57, Boston University (9-15) 104 [47] 70-86 ✗ MAE: 15.4 Boston University (81.1%)
Penn State-Shenango (0-4) 41, St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 100 [59] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 25.5 St. Francis (PA) (81.0%)
High Point (21-4) 84, Southern Illinois (10-13) 86 [2] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 162.2		 High Point (79.8%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 52, UL Monroe (4-20) 66 [14] 66-67 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 149.2		 UL Monroe (79.6%)
New Hampshire (8-13) 68, Dartmouth (10-10) 69 [1] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 147.2		 Dartmouth (79.2%)
Austin Peay (16-6) 84, Kent State (17-6) 96 [12] 76-82 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 153.8		 Kent State (78.8%)
New Orleans (11-13) 70, Memphis (10-11) 86 [16] 60-80 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 149.5		 Memphis (77.3%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 66, Weber State (11-12) 92 [26] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 157.8		 Weber State (75.6%)
Maine (5-18) 57, Ohio (13-11) 79 [22] 64-66 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 138.5		 Ohio (74.7%)
Midway University (0-4) 60, Bellarmine (9-13) 99 [39] 78-88 ✗ MAE: 14.5 Bellarmine (73.8%)
Ball State (7-15) 52, Evansville (5-18) 64 [12] 61-71 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 136.5		 Evansville (72.9%)
Belmont (21-3) 76, Richmond (13-10) 84 [8] 72-84 ✗ MAE: 10.1
O/U: 156.8		 Belmont (72.8%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 80, Lipscomb (15-9) 83 [3] 71-86 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 152.0		 Lipscomb (72.3%)
SMU (15-7) 69, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 88 [19] 75-90 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 166.0		 Vanderbilt (72.0%)
Delaware State (6-15) 59, Navy (18-6) 66 [7] 70-65 ✓ MAE: 4.7
O/U: 132.8		 Navy (70.9%)
Clemson #20 (19-4) 84, Alabama (15-7) 90 [6] 76-84 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 165.8		 Alabama (70.8%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 74, Western Michigan (8-14) 88 [14] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 150.8		 Western Michigan (70.7%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 60, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 73 [13] 61-71 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET UNDER 144.0		 Stephen F. Austin (70.1%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 56, Wofford (16-8) 63 [7] 62-71 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 138.0		 Wofford (69.7%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 78, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 85 [7] 67-75 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 144.5		 South Carolina Upstate (69.5%)
Northwestern (10-13) 73, Wisconsin (16-6) 85 [12] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 155.5		 Wisconsin (69.2%)
St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 74, Montana State (13-10) 82 [8] 69-77 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 146.5		 Montana State (68.2%)
Indiana (15-8) 64, Minnesota (11-12) 73 [9] 73-69 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 144.2		 Indiana (68.0%)
Utah Valley (16-6) 66, San Diego State (16-6) 77 [11] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 144.2		 San Diego State (67.9%)
Boston College (9-13) 69, LSU (14-8) 78 [9] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 149.2		 LSU (67.0%)
NC State (17-6) 73, Auburn (14-8) 83 [10] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 163.8		 Auburn (67.0%)
Harvard (12-9) 71, Massachusetts (15-9) 78 [7] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 144.2		 Massachusetts (65.6%)
Princeton (8-14) 58, Monmouth (11-12) 63 [5] 60-69 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 140.2		 Monmouth (65.2%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 71, Hampton (10-13) 93 [22] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 10.5
O/U: 142.2		 Hampton (65.1%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 92, Oakland (14-11) 101 [9] 75-84 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET UNDER 162.5		 Oakland (64.8%)
Kansas City (4-20) 59, Idaho State (10-13) 68 [9] 75-62 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 138.5		 Kansas City (64.7%) DOG
Drexel (12-11) 73, American University (13-11) 75 [2] 64-70 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 137.2		 American University (63.5%)
Texas (14-9) 69, Virginia #18 (19-3) 88 [19] 78-83 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET OVER 154.5		 Texas (63.3%)
Cornell (10-10) 80, Towson (13-11) 93 [13] 76-87 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 154.2		 Towson (62.8%)
Northeastern (6-15) 59, Holy Cross (8-16) 76 [17] 70-71 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 145.2		 Northeastern (62.8%)
Hofstra (14-9) 70, Columbia (14-7) 72 [2] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 144.5		 Columbia (60.5%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 80, Sacred Heart (10-14) 87 [7] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET UNDER 152.5		 Mount St. Mary's (59.8%) DOG
Vermont (14-9) 58, Oregon State (13-12) 80 [22] 64-73 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 142.5		 Oregon State (58.9%)
Air Force (3-19) 65, Pacific (15-10) 80 [15] 68-66 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 134.8		 Pacific (58.9%)
Radford (13-12) 75, Southern Miss (12-13) 82 [7] 68-79 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 152.5		 Radford (58.7%)
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 69, Georgia Southern (14-11) 77 [8] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 146.0		 Georgia Southern (58.5%)
Wright State (15-9) 68, Youngstown State (12-12) 69 [1] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET OVER 144.2		 Youngstown State (58.5%)
Little Rock (9-14) 47, Central Arkansas (13-10) 85 [38] 65-76 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET OVER 136.0		 Central Arkansas (58.3%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 78, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 92 [14] 78-74 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 180.2		 Detroit Mercy (58.1%)
Montana (13-10) 72, North Dakota State (19-5) 81 [9] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 152.5		 Montana (57.7%)
Texas State (14-11) 72, Rice (10-13) 77 [5] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET OVER 133.5		 Rice (57.3%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 89, Denver (9-15) 93 [4] 77-87 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET OVER 154.8		 Denver (56.9%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 53, Alabama A&M (12-10) 80 [27] 78-71 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET OVER 146.8		 Tennessee State (54.4%)
South Dakota (13-12) 71, Portland State (15-6) 77 [6] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 158.0		 South Dakota (52.8%) DOG
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 83, Florida International (11-11) 89 [6] 76-83 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET OVER 155.0		 Florida International (52.4%) DOG
Washington (12-11) 80, UCLA (16-7) 82 [2] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 141.8		 Washington (51.4%) DOG
Georgia Tech (11-12) 73, Mississippi State (11-11) 85 [12] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 150.5		 Georgia Tech (51.3%) DOG
Elon (13-10) 88, Furman (16-8) 97 [9] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 15.4
O/U: 153.5		 Elon (51.0%) DOG
Louisville #24 (16-6) 80, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 89 [9] 81-89 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET OVER 166.5		 Arkansas (50.7%) DOG
Northern Arizona (8-15) 62, South Dakota State (11-13) 75 [13] 72-77 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 148.5		 Northern Arizona (50.6%) DOG
Omaha (12-12) 70, Northern Colorado (13-10) 75 [5] 74-81 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 157.0		 Omaha (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
74
Final results
74
Correct picks
56
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
74
Avg Confidence
73.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1066
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
52
ML Win Rate
76.9%
ML Profit
$561
ML ROI
10.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-270
ROI
-53.9%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-106
ROI
-15.2%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
49
ATS Wins
29
ATS Losses
20
ATS Win Rate
59.2%
Spread Profit
$636
Spread ROI
13.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+6.8%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
69
Avg Confidence
61.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1281
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
63
O/U Wins
29
O/U Losses
34
O/U Win Rate
46.0%
O/U Profit
$-764
O/U ROI
-12.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-6.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Oral Roberts 66 @ Weber State 92 Weber State (75.6%) Weber State -7.5 +7.1 +14.6 +26.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-270
ROI
-53.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Georgia Tech 73, Mississippi State 85 [12] Georgia Tech 51.3% +125 +8.5% LOSS
Elon 88, Furman 97 [9] Elon 51.0% +127 +8.6% LOSS
Louisville 80, Arkansas 89 [9] Arkansas 50.7% +130 +8.9% WIN
Northern Arizona 62, South Dakota State 75 [13] Northern Arizona 50.6% +125 +7.7% LOSS
Omaha 70, Northern Colorado 75 [5] Omaha 50.5% +110 +4.8% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-106
ROI
-15.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Louisville 80, Arkansas 89 [9] Arkansas 50.7% +130 +8.9% WIN
Elon 88, Furman 97 [9] Elon 51.0% +127 +8.6% LOSS
Georgia Tech 73, Mississippi State 85 [12] Georgia Tech 51.3% +125 +8.5% LOSS
Northern Arizona 62, South Dakota State 75 [13] Northern Arizona 50.6% +125 +7.7% LOSS
Hofstra 70, Columbia 72 [2] Columbia 60.5% -125 +7.3% WIN
Texas 69, Virginia 88 [19] Texas 63.3% -140 +7.1% LOSS
Little Rock 47, Central Arkansas 85 [38] Central Arkansas 58.3% -120 +6.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$247
ROI
82.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
New Orleans @ Memphis New Orleans 22.7% +850 +12.6% LOSS
Navy @ Delaware State Delaware State 29.1% +525 +13.8% LOSS
Indiana @ Minnesota Minnesota 32.0% +447 +14.5% WIN