Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-04
All Games Summary
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.8%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (9)
The Citadel (8-15) 63, Davidson (13-9) 79 [16] 60-82 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 138.0		 Davidson (94.3%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 60, UC Irvine (15-7) 73 [13] 57-75 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 141.5		 UC Irvine (85.2%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 77, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 84 [7] 65-84 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 142.5		 UC Santa Barbara (84.3%)
Rider (3-18) 66, Merrimack (14-9) 68 [2] 60-70 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 138.8		 Merrimack (74.8%)
UC Davis (13-9) 69, Hawai'i (16-5) 75 [6] 67-81 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 147.0		 Hawai'i (72.9%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 66, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 87 [21] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 155.5		 Cal State Northridge (71.8%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 91, Cal Poly (9-14) 94 [3] 78-86 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 177.5		 Cal State Fullerton (61.5%)
Utah State (19-3) 61, South Florida (15-8) 74 [13] 78-84 ✗ MAE: 13.4
O/U: 161.2		 South Florida (53.0%)
Green Bay (13-12) 78, Robert Morris (15-10) 80 [2] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 140.2		 Green Bay (52.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.8%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
77.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1235
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
5
ML Win Rate
80.0%
ML Profit
$37
ML ROI
7.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$100
ROI
100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
7
ATS Wins
3
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
42.9%
Spread Profit
$-127
Spread ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
56.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3364
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
9
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$245
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Cal State Bakersfield 66 @ Cal State Northridge 87 Cal State Northridge (71.8%) Cal State Northridge -4.5 +7.4 +11.9 +21.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Utah State 61, South Florida 74 [13] South Florida 53.0% +100 +5.2% WIN
Green Bay 78, Robert Morris 80 [2] Green Bay 52.2% +100 +4.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$100
ROI
100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Utah State 61, South Florida 74 [13] South Florida 53.0% +100 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-33.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Davis @ Hawai'i UC Davis 27.1% +370 +6.8% LOSS
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara Long Beach State 15.7% +625 +2.5% LOSS
Utah State @ South Florida South Florida 53.0% +100 +5.2% WIN