Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-05
All Games Summary
Total Picks
19
Final results
19
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
84.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (19)
NJIT (11-12) 72, High Point (21-4) 89 [17] 61-92 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 156.0		 High Point (96.7%)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 59, UConn #3 (22-1) 83 [24] 50-80 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 141.8		 UConn (96.7%)
Samford (11-12) 57, VCU (17-6) 83 [26] 65-88 ✓ MAE: 6.3
O/U: 154.5		 VCU (95.7%)
Cleary University (0-3) 48, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 86 [38] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 13.4 Eastern Michigan (94.3%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 54, McNeese (18-5) 92 [38] 60-81 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 138.8		 McNeese (93.8%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 59, Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 80 [21] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Bethune-Cookman (88.1%)
Niagara (6-17) 54, Siena (16-7) 83 [29] 58-74 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 129.8		 Siena (85.5%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 56, Marist (15-7) 64 [8] 57-73 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 136.8		 Marist (75.3%)
TCU (13-9) 85, Notre Dame (11-12) 87 [2] 60-75 ✗ MAE: 18.8
BET UNDER 141.8		 TCU (73.8%)
South Alabama (16-7) 65, East Tennessee State (17-7) 91 [26] 63-76 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 143.2		 East Tennessee State (67.3%)
Bryant (7-15) 56, Brown (7-13) 75 [19] 59-71 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 131.2		 Brown (67.3%)
Canisius (8-16) 57, Saint Peter's (12-8) 69 [12] 58-68 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 129.8		 Saint Peter's (67.2%)
San Diego (10-15) 69, San José State (6-16) 86 [17] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 144.5		 San José State (67.1%)
Iona (14-9) 68, Quinnipiac (15-9) 89 [21] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 163.5		 Iona (64.3%)
Drake (12-12) 69, UAB (14-8) 74 [5] 72-82 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 148.8		 Drake (57.7%)
Kentucky (16-7) 59, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 94 [35] 78-82 ✗ MAE: 19.1
O/U: 159.5		 Gonzaga (57.5%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 71, Lafayette (7-17) 79 [8] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET OVER 132.2		 Lafayette (57.0%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 74, Xavier (12-11) 79 [5] 71-75 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 148.0		 Xavier (56.8%) DOG
Fairfield (14-10) 66, Manhattan (9-15) 70 [4] 69-75 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 155.2		 Manhattan (55.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
19
Final results
19
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
84.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
19
Avg Confidence
76.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1470
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
13
ML Win Rate
76.9%
ML Profit
$182
ML ROI
14.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$96
ROI
23.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
12
ATS Wins
8
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
66.7%
Spread Profit
$327
Spread ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
18
Avg Confidence
61.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2901
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
17
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
8
O/U Win Rate
52.9%
O/U Profit
$18
O/U ROI
1.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
0
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Mount St. Mary's 56 @ Marist 64 Marist (75.3%) Marist -8.2 +7.8 +16.0 +8.0 FAILED
Notre Dame 87 @ TCU 85 TCU (73.8%) TCU -7.5 +7.3 +14.8 -2.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$96
ROI
23.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Fairfield 66, Manhattan 70 [4] Manhattan 55.7% -105 +6.8% WIN
Iona 68, Quinnipiac 89 [21] Iona 64.3% -150 +6.3% LOSS
Mercyhurst 71, Lafayette 79 [8] Lafayette 57.0% -115 +5.9% WIN
South Carolina State 59, Bethune-Cookman 80 [21] Bethune-Cookman 88.1% -750 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Canisius @ Saint Peter's Canisius 32.8% +285 +7.9% LOSS
San Diego @ San José State San Diego 32.9% +265 +6.6% LOSS
Niagara @ Siena Niagara 14.5% +725 +3.0% LOSS