Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-06
All Games Summary
Total Picks
109
Final results
109
Correct picks
74
Incorrect picks
35
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
COMPLETED GAMES (109)
Coppin State (3-21) 50, Liberty (19-3) 92 [42] 57-88 MAE: 5.7
O/U: 143.5
Liberty (96.9%)
Fresno State (11-11) 58, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 82 [24] 70-90 MAE: 9.8
O/U: 161.0
Arkansas (96.8%)
Stetson (8-15) 51, South Carolina (11-12) 82 [31] 54-78 MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 142.5
South Carolina (96.5%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 72, DePaul (12-11) 76 [4] 68-82 MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 156.0
DePaul (96.2%)
Chicago State (2-19) 53, Illinois State (15-8) 95 [42] 58-87 MAE: 6.8
O/U: 144.2
Illinois State (95.8%)
Pennsylvania (10-10) 63, Villanova (17-5) 90 [27] 61-81 MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 150.2
Villanova (95.7%)
LaGrange (0-2) 47, Troy (16-8) 101 [54] 71-86 MAE: 19.5 Troy (95.4%)
UNC Asheville (11-13) 63, NC State (17-6) 75 [12] 61-85 MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 155.5
NC State (95.3%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 64, Miami (17-5) 88 [24] 66-88 MAE: 0.9
BET OVER 146.8
Miami (95.3%)
Rutgers (9-14) 60, Michigan #2 (20-1) 101 [41] 57-92 MAE: 5.9
O/U: 150.5
Michigan (94.8%)
Calumet College (0-2) 58, Valparaiso (11-12) 98 [40] 68-80 MAE: 14.1 Valparaiso (94.3%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 55, Bradley (16-8) 84 [29] 61-85 MAE: 3.7
O/U: 146.8
Bradley (93.1%)
Maine (5-18) 61, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 93 [32] 59-84 MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 139.5
Miami (OH) (92.5%)
New Haven (10-12) 63, Boston College (9-13) 67 [4] 55-68 MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 126.0
Boston College (91.8%)
Bellarmine (9-13) 68, Murray State (17-7) 81 [13] 67-84 MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 156.8
Murray State (90.4%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 77, Richmond (13-10) 86 [9] 67-82 MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 153.5
Richmond (89.4%)
Winthrop (17-8) 84, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 88 [4] 72-86 MAE: 8.9
BET OVER 152.8
Winthrop (88.9%)
Georgia State (9-15) 69, Kennesaw State (14-8) 92 [23] 71-84 MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 158.2
Kennesaw State (88.7%)
Florida State (10-12) 67, Houston #8 (20-2) 82 [15] 65-82 MAE: 1.3
O/U: 147.0
Houston (88.4%)
William & Mary (14-8) 86, George Washington (13-10) 99 [13] 78-87 MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 175.0
George Washington (88.4%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 58, St. John's #22 (17-5) 63 [5] 65-76 MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 151.8
St. John's (88.1%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 80, Wyoming (13-10) 93 [13] 65-83 MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 157.5
Wyoming (88.1%)
UAlbany (7-16) 65, Columbia (14-7) 93 [28] 71-86 MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 144.5
Columbia (87.3%)
Champion Christian (0-6) 62, Prairie View A&M (9-13) 124 [62] 83-100 MAE: 22.7 Prairie View A&M (86.6%)
Evansville (5-18) 79, Western Kentucky (12-10) 80 [1] 68-73 MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 148.5
Western Kentucky (85.5%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 84, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 109 [25] 62-79 MAE: 26.1
BET UNDER 146.5
UC Santa Barbara (85.4%)
Marquette (8-15) 76, Wisconsin (16-6) 96 [20] 65-82 MAE: 12.7
BET UNDER 160.8
Wisconsin (85.1%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 70, Oregon State (13-12) 81 [11] 64-77 MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 146.8
Oregon State (83.7%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 60, American University (13-11) 78 [18] 60-75 MAE: 1.6
BET OVER 130.5
American University (82.3%)
Indiana University East (0-2) 67, Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 122 [55] 86-94 MAE: 23.0 Eastern Kentucky (81.8%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 60, Massachusetts (15-9) 80 [20] 72-83 MAE: 7.8
O/U: 155.8
Massachusetts (81.4%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 67, James Madison (11-13) 68 [1] 65-76 MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 139.0
James Madison (81.4%)
Fordham (12-11) 69, Holy Cross (8-16) 70 [1] 58-72 MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 138.8
Fordham (81.2%)
Northern Arizona (8-15) 68, North Dakota State (19-5) 69 [1] 63-79 MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 147.5
North Dakota State (80.9%)
Portland State (15-6) 55, Omaha (12-12) 60 [5] 65-78 MAE: 14.1
BET UNDER 146.8
Portland State (80.8%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 67, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 78 [11] 72-77 MAE: 2.9
O/U: 149.5
South Carolina Upstate (80.4%)
Cal State Northridge (13-10) 71, UC Irvine (15-7) 85 [14] 68-77 MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 150.5
UC Irvine (80.3%)
South Dakota (13-12) 87, Northern Colorado (13-10) 89 [2] 79-88 MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 162.5
Northern Colorado (79.9%)
Maryland (8-13) 64, Iowa (17-5) 83 [19] 60-78 MAE: 4.8
O/U: 136.8
Iowa (79.7%)
Auburn (14-8) 68, Arizona #1 (22-0) 97 [29] 73-88 MAE: 7.0
O/U: 162.0
Arizona (79.4%)
Monmouth (11-12) 67, Georgia Tech (11-12) 79 [12] 63-76 MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 143.8
Georgia Tech (79.0%)
Missouri State (13-9) 74, Tulsa (20-3) 98 [24] 66-78 MAE: 13.6
BET OVER 142.5
Tulsa (77.8%)
Denver (9-15) 79, Idaho State (10-13) 93 [14] 71-87 MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 142.2
Idaho State (77.7%)
Pacific (15-10) 61, California (17-6) 67 [6] 65-76 MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 145.0
California (77.4%)
Oregon (8-14) 63, UCLA (16-7) 74 [11] 70-77 MAE: 4.8
O/U: 145.5
UCLA (74.2%)
Morehead State (12-11) 72, Presbyterian (11-13) 80 [8] 61-70 MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 134.0
Presbyterian (74.1%)
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 73, Western Michigan (8-14) 83 [10] 65-79 MAE: 12.3
BET OVER 139.5
SIU Edwardsville (74.1%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 59, Hawai'i (16-5) 69 [10] 66-76 MAE: 6.7 Hawai'i (74.0%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 65, Florida International (11-11) 88 [23] 68-82 MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 145.8
Florida International (72.4%)
Louisiana (8-16) 63, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 70 [7] 69-63 MAE: 0.9
O/U: 130.5
UNC Wilmington (72.1%)
Dayton (15-8) 73, Virginia #18 (19-3) 86 [13] 68-77 MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 147.2
Virginia (71.6%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 74, UC San Diego (15-8) 80 [6] 77-77 MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 145.0
UC San Diego (70.6%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 75, Duquesne (13-10) 84 [9] 66-80 MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 151.0
Duquesne (70.4%)
USC (17-6) 76, Washington (12-11) 84 [8] 75-79 MAE: 5.8
O/U: 153.5
USC (69.2%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 84, Georgia Southern (14-11) 88 [4] 82-77 MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 162.2
Georgia Southern (69.0%)
Kansas City (4-20) 66, Eastern Washington (5-17) 90 [24] 70-73 MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 152.5
Eastern Washington (68.9%)
Bucknell (8-16) 66, UMBC (13-8) 73 [7] 64-75 MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 144.5
Bucknell (68.1%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 55, Youngstown State (12-12) 78 [23] 80-78 MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 171.2
Youngstown State (67.2%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 70, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 74 [4] 72-76 MAE: 3.6
O/U: 149.5
Chattanooga (66.9%)
East Carolina (7-15) 78, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 82 [4] 71-77 MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 139.5
East Carolina (66.8%)
Rhode Island (13-9) 71, Providence (10-13) 90 [19] 66-79 MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 159.2
Providence (66.8%)
California Baptist (16-6) 85, Utah (9-13) 91 [6] 72-78 MAE: 13.1
BET OVER 145.5
Utah (66.5%)
Delaware (6-16) 72, Delaware State (6-15) 75 [3] 73-63 MAE: 6.5
BET OVER 129.8
Delaware (66.5%)
Tulane (13-9) 71, Akron (19-4) 88 [17] 80-78 MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 162.5
Akron (66.3%)
Little Rock (9-14) 78, Arkansas State (14-10) 90 [12] 77-75 MAE: 8.4
BET OVER 149.0
Arkansas State (65.8%)
Wofford (16-8) 52, Elon (13-10) 73 [21] 69-77 MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 161.8
Wofford (65.5%)
Harvard (12-9) 69, Furman (16-8) 79 [10] 67-77 MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 141.0
Furman (65.2%)
Montana State (13-10) 68, Oral Roberts (5-19) 72 [4] 74-71 MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 150.5
Montana State (64.8%)
Butler (13-10) 68, Boise State (14-9) 77 [9] 75-78 MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 148.2
Butler (64.5%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 84, UC Riverside (8-15) 88 [4] 71-86 MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 161.5
Cal Poly (64.1%)
New Orleans (11-13) 76, Houston Christian (8-15) 85 [9] 65-75 MAE: 10.6
O/U: 140.8
New Orleans (63.4%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 81, Idaho (13-9) 84 [3] 73-80 MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 147.2
South Dakota State (63.4%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 59, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 71 [12] 70-80 MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 158.5
Cleveland State (63.3%)
Purdue #12 (18-4) 58, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 81 [23] 70-77 MAE: 15.4
BET UNDER 155.0
Purdue (63.1%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 70, Sam Houston (16-7) 82 [12] 75-76 MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 158.8
Sam Houston (63.0%)
Lamar (12-11) 49, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 57 [8] 60-67 MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 136.2
Lamar (62.7%)
Tennessee #25 (16-6) 62, Illinois #5 (20-3) 75 [13] 64-75 MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 151.0
Tennessee (62.4%)
West Georgia (10-12) 59, Tennessee Tech (9-14) 87 [28] 75-80 MAE: 16.9
BET OVER 150.8
West Georgia (61.9%)
Princeton (8-14) 68, Loyola Chicago (6-18) 73 [5] 64-68 MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 136.5
Loyola Chicago (61.3%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 69, Wichita State (14-9) 74 [5] 62-73 MAE: 7.8
O/U: 135.5
Northern Iowa (61.2%)
Colorado (13-10) 86, Colorado State (12-10) 91 [5] 71-81 MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 149.2
Colorado State (61.1%)
Toledo (12-11) 97, Oakland (14-11) 98 [1] 79-87 MAE: 14.6
O/U: 166.2
Oakland (60.7%)
Kansas State (10-12) 67, Seton Hall (16-7) 78 [11] 67-76 MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 148.5
Kansas State (60.2%)
Temple (14-8) 69, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 70 [1] 61-71 MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 147.5
Temple (60.2%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 72, Milwaukee (9-16) 74 [2] 70-77 MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 152.8
Milwaukee (60.0%)
Morgan State (9-13) 80, Longwood (13-12) 84 [4] 72-74 MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 154.5
Longwood (59.9%)
Buffalo (14-9) 69, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 77 [8] 78-74 MAE: 2.8
BET OVER 144.2
St. Bonaventure (59.3%)
North Dakota (13-12) 75, Montana (13-10) 79 [4] 80-73 MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 157.0
Montana (59.1%)
George Mason (20-3) 62, Virginia Tech (16-7) 73 [11] 70-75 MAE: 5.0
O/U: 144.5
Virginia Tech (58.0%)
Marshall (15-8) 81, Ohio (13-11) 88 [7] 76-71 MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 157.5
Ohio (57.9%)
Boston University (9-15) 82, New Hampshire (8-13) 88 [6] 73-72 MAE: 12.4
BET OVER 134.8
Boston University (57.1%)
West Virginia (14-8) 66, Wake Forest (11-11) 75 [9] 64-74 MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 143.5
West Virginia (56.9%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 74, Lindenwood (14-10) 82 [8] 74-70 MAE: 5.9
O/U: 144.5
Lindenwood (56.3%)
Northwestern (10-13) 82, Ohio State (14-7) 86 [4] 71-80 MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 155.2
Northwestern (56.3%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 77, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 79 [2] 72-81 MAE: 3.1
O/U: 153.5
Purdue Fort Wayne (55.6%)
Drexel (12-11) 64, La Salle (7-16) 69 [5] 67-66 MAE: 3.2
O/U: 132.5
La Salle (55.3%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 67, Nicholls (10-13) 74 [7] 73-71 MAE: 4.9
O/U: 145.8
Nicholls (55.0%) DOG
Oklahoma (11-12) 70, Arizona State (12-11) 86 [16] 76-77 MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 156.2
Oklahoma (54.7%)
Lehigh (10-14) 82, Long Island University (14-8) 87 [5] 71-78 MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 142.8
Lehigh (53.8%) DOG
Indiana (15-8) 78, Louisville #24 (16-6) 87 [9] 75-80 MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 162.2
Louisville (53.8%) DOG
Bowling Green (14-9) 71, Utah Valley (16-6) 82 [11] 73-78 MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 144.5
Bowling Green (52.6%) DOG
New Mexico State (11-11) 69, Abilene Christian (10-11) 77 [8] 67-75 MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 131.5
Abilene Christian (52.2%) DOG
North Carolina Central (8-12) 54, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 69 [15] 67-73 MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 143.0
North Carolina Central (52.1%) DOG
Santa Clara (20-5) 71, New Mexico (18-5) 98 [27] 72-82 MAE: 8.3
O/U: 153.5
New Mexico (52.0%)
Michigan State #10 (19-4) 60, Duke #4 (21-1) 66 [6] 68-76 MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 141.5
Michigan State (51.7%) DOG
Binghamton (5-18) 63, Le Moyne (11-12) 78 [15] 72-79 MAE: 10.5
BET OVER 144.8
Binghamton (51.5%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 56, Vermont (14-9) 65 [9] 63-70 MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 142.8
Pepperdine (51.1%) DOG
Grand Canyon (15-7) 78, Oklahoma State (16-6) 84 [6] 73-80 MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 155.5
Grand Canyon (50.9%) DOG
Baylor (13-9) 71, Memphis (10-11) 78 [7] 78-72 MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 158.2
Baylor (50.7%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
109
Final results
109
Correct picks
74
Incorrect picks
35
Pending
0
Accuracy
67.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
109
Avg Confidence
72.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1100
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
92
ML Win Rate
63.0%
ML Profit
$-1376
ML ROI
-15.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-66
ROI
-8.3%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
7
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
58.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$74
ROI
6.2%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$334
ROI
83.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
60
ATS Wins
31
ATS Losses
29
ATS Win Rate
51.7%
Spread Profit
$-82
Spread ROI
-1.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.7%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
103
Avg Confidence
60.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2323
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
97
O/U Wins
60
O/U Losses
37
O/U Win Rate
61.9%
O/U Profit
$1754
O/U ROI
18.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+9.5%
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-66
ROI
-8.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lehigh 82, Long Island University 87 [5] Lehigh 53.8% +107 +7.6% LOSS
Indiana 78, Louisville 87 [9] Louisville 53.8% +150 +15.2% WIN
New Mexico State 69, Abilene Christian 77 [8] Abilene Christian 52.2% +138 +12.0% WIN
Santa Clara 71, New Mexico 98 [27] New Mexico 52.0% +145 +12.6% WIN
Michigan State 60, Duke 66 [6] Michigan State 51.7% +105 +4.9% LOSS
Binghamton 63, Le Moyne 78 [15] Binghamton 51.5% +105 +4.7% LOSS
Pepperdine 56, Vermont 65 [9] Pepperdine 51.1% +100 +3.3% LOSS
Grand Canyon 78, Oklahoma State 84 [6] Grand Canyon 50.9% +135 +10.1% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
7
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
58.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$74
ROI
6.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Indiana 78, Louisville 87 [9] Louisville 53.8% +150 +15.2% WIN
Santa Clara 71, New Mexico 98 [27] New Mexico 52.0% +145 +12.6% WIN
New Mexico State 69, Abilene Christian 77 [8] Abilene Christian 52.2% +138 +12.0% WIN
Grand Canyon 78, Oklahoma State 84 [6] Grand Canyon 50.9% +135 +10.1% LOSS
Cleveland State 59, Detroit Mercy 71 [12] Cleveland State 63.3% -135 +8.1% LOSS
Lehigh 82, Long Island University 87 [5] Lehigh 53.8% +107 +7.6% LOSS
Tennessee 62, Illinois 75 [13] Tennessee 62.4% -135 +7.2% LOSS
Drexel 64, La Salle 69 [5] La Salle 55.3% -105 +6.4% WIN
Old Dominion 77, Richmond 86 [9] Richmond 89.4% -685 +6.2% WIN
West Virginia 66, Wake Forest 75 [9] West Virginia 56.9% -115 +5.9% LOSS
William & Mary 86, George Washington 99 [13] George Washington 88.4% -697 +5.2% WIN
UAlbany 65, Columbia 93 [28] Columbia 87.3% -600 +5.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$334
ROI
83.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Indiana 78, Louisville 87 [9] Louisville 53.8% +150 +15.2% WIN
Santa Clara 71, New Mexico 98 [27] New Mexico 52.0% +145 +12.6% WIN
New Mexico State 69, Abilene Christian 77 [8] Abilene Christian 52.2% +138 +12.0% WIN
Grand Canyon 78, Oklahoma State 84 [6] Grand Canyon 50.9% +135 +10.1% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State Long Beach State 29.4% +525 +14.1% LOSS
UNC Wilmington @ Louisiana Louisiana 27.9% +440 +10.1% LOSS
Stony Brook @ Duquesne Stony Brook 29.6% +390 +10.1% LOSS