Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-07
All Games Summary
Total Picks
43
Final results
43
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (43)
North Florida (5-18) 58, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 109 [51] 61-106 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 167.2		 Gonzaga (97.0%)
UTSA (4-18) 55, Alabama (15-7) 97 [42] 62-102 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 169.5		 Alabama (96.6%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 65, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 107 [42] 62-97 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 160.8		 Saint Louis (96.1%)
Tusculum (0-2) 62, East Tennessee State (17-7) 78 [16] 65-74 ✓ MAE: 3.9 East Tennessee State (95.6%)
Ecclesia (0-5) 37, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 89 [52] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 19.8 Louisiana Tech (95.6%)
Bethany (WV) (0-2) 51, Mercyhurst (11-12) 80 [29] 70-83 ✗ MAE: 10.9 Mercyhurst (94.2%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 76, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 96 [20] 61-85 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET OVER 142.5		 Stephen F. Austin (94.0%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 62, Campbell (10-13) 149 [87] 81-105 ✗ MAE: 31.8 Campbell (93.5%)
UIC (13-11) 66, Yale (16-4) 80 [14] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 148.2		 Yale (89.2%)
UTEP (8-15) 68, Seattle U (15-9) 75 [7] 60-72 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 136.5		 Seattle U (88.0%)
Canisius (8-16) 52, Siena (16-7) 74 [22] 57-73 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 131.8		 Siena (87.9%)
Rider (3-18) 58, Quinnipiac (15-9) 72 [14] 61-77 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 147.5		 Quinnipiac (87.8%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 56, Radford (13-12) 89 [33] 64-86 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 154.2		 Radford (87.1%)
Weber State (11-12) 65, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 88 [23] 69-84 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 154.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (83.2%)
Alabama A&M (12-10) 58, Lipscomb (15-9) 92 [34] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 9.7
O/U: 145.8		 Lipscomb (83.2%)
Georgetown (13-10) 61, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 81 [20] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 3.6
O/U: 149.8		 North Carolina (83.0%)
Towson (13-11) 61, UCF (17-5) 86 [25] 63-80 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 147.5		 UCF (83.0%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 55, Indiana State (10-14) 77 [22] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 157.8		 Indiana State (81.8%)
Air Force (3-19) 56, Navy (18-6) 61 [5] 57-71 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 133.0		 Navy (81.1%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 68, East Texas A&M (8-15) 75 [7] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 0.9
O/U: 144.5		 East Texas A&M (80.2%)
Stanford (14-9) 74, UNLV (10-12) 75 [1] 64-77 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 165.0		 Stanford (78.7%)
Manhattan (9-15) 68, Marist (15-7) 80 [12] 58-75 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 140.8		 Marist (74.3%)
Green Bay (13-12) 58, Wright State (15-9) 86 [28] 66-81 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 142.2		 Wright State (73.3%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 68, Northwestern State (6-16) 76 [8] 61-74 ✗ MAE: 10.9
O/U: 133.2		 SE Louisiana (71.6%)
Charlotte (13-10) 53, Utah State (19-3) 79 [26] 77-74 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET OVER 139.5		 Utah State (70.9%)
Niagara (6-17) 43, Saint Peter's (12-8) 71 [28] 59-73 ✗ MAE: 8.8
O/U: 131.8		 Saint Peter's (70.1%)
Austin Peay (16-6) 50, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 63 [13] 62-72 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 151.0		 UT Rio Grande Valley (69.9%)
Alabama State (7-15) 64, UT Martin (18-5) 74 [10] 60-76 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 146.0		 UT Martin (69.6%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 73, Hofstra (14-9) 80 [7] 62-73 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 134.8		 Pittsburgh (68.9%)
Davidson (13-9) 61, Saint Mary's (20-4) 70 [9] 69-69 ✓ MAE: 4.5
O/U: 138.5		 Saint Mary's (67.7%)
Creighton (12-11) 50, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 71 [21] 66-76 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 155.5		 Nebraska (66.5%)
Missouri (15-7) 60, Kansas #11 (17-5) 80 [20] 64-80 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 149.8		 Kansas (62.7%)
North Texas (12-11) 55, TCU (13-9) 65 [10] 68-66 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 135.5		 North Texas (59.9%) DOG
Mississippi State (11-11) 62, San Francisco (14-11) 65 [3] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 150.5		 Mississippi State (59.3%)
Fairfield (14-10) 63, Merrimack (14-9) 74 [11] 65-73 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 145.0		 Merrimack (58.8%)
Texas A&M (17-5) 80, SMU (15-7) 93 [13] 83-90 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 164.5		 SMU (57.7%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 56, Northeastern (6-15) 73 [17] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 138.8		 Northeastern (56.8%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 69, Iona (14-9) 81 [12] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 163.5		 Sacred Heart (55.1%)
Cornell (10-10) 90, Samford (11-12) 93 [3] 80-89 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 166.5		 Samford (54.5%)
LSU (14-8) 58, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 82 [24] 85-71 ✗ MAE: 18.9
BET OVER 154.0		 LSU (52.9%)
Washington State (11-14) 64, Nevada (16-7) 78 [14] 66-70 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 145.8		 Washington State (52.0%) DOG
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 76, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 81 [5] 74-78 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 151.2		 Florida Gulf Coast (50.8%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 62, Belmont (21-3) 83 [21] 69-73 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 154.8		 Middle Tennessee (50.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
43
Final results
43
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
43
Avg Confidence
73.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1038
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
29
ML Win Rate
69.0%
ML Profit
$-330
ML ROI
-11.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-75.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-382
ROI
-76.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
25
ATS Wins
14
ATS Losses
11
ATS Win Rate
56.0%
Spread Profit
$173
Spread ROI
6.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+3.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
39
Avg Confidence
57.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2929
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
30
O/U Wins
16
O/U Losses
14
O/U Win Rate
53.3%
O/U Profit
$54
O/U ROI
1.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
6
Completed
6
Covered
5
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$354
ROI
59.1%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
6
O/U Wins
5
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
83.3%
O/U Profit
$354
O/U ROI
59.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+30.9%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Manhattan 68 @ Marist 80 Marist (74.3%) Marist -7.5 +9.9 +17.4 +12.0 COVERED
Niagara 43 @ Saint Peter's 71 Saint Peter's (70.1%) Saint Peter's -5.5 +8.8 +14.3 +28.0 COVERED
Green Bay 58 @ Wright State 86 Wright State (73.3%) Wright State -6.5 +8.1 +14.6 +28.0 COVERED
Towson 61 @ UCF 86 UCF (83.0%) UCF -9.5 +7.3 +16.8 +25.0 COVERED
Weber State 65 @ St. Thomas-Minnesota 88 St. Thomas-Minnesota (83.2%) St. Thomas-Minnesota -7.5 +7.2 +14.7 +23.0 COVERED
Northwestern State 76 @ SE Louisiana 68 SE Louisiana (71.6%) SE Louisiana -7.5 +6.3 +13.8 -8.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-75.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Cornell 90, Samford 93 [3] Samford 54.5% N/A N/A WIN
Washington State 64, Nevada 78 [14] Washington State 52.0% +130 +10.3% LOSS
Florida Gulf Coast 76, Florida Atlantic 81 [5] Florida Gulf Coast 50.8% +129 +9.0% LOSS
Middle Tennessee 62, Belmont 83 [21] Middle Tennessee 50.4% +120 +6.8% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-382
ROI
-76.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Washington State 64, Nevada 78 [14] Washington State 52.0% +130 +10.3% LOSS
Florida Gulf Coast 76, Florida Atlantic 81 [5] Florida Gulf Coast 50.8% +129 +9.0% LOSS
UTEP 68, Seattle U 75 [7] Seattle U 88.0% -570 +6.8% WIN
Middle Tennessee 62, Belmont 83 [21] Middle Tennessee 50.4% +120 +6.8% LOSS
Sacred Heart 69, Iona 81 [12] Sacred Heart 55.1% -107 +5.7% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Washington State 64, Nevada 78 [14] Washington State 52.0% +130 +10.3% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$394
ROI
131.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Utah State @ Charlotte Charlotte 29.1% +410 +10.4% LOSS
Hofstra @ Pittsburgh Hofstra 31.1% +320 +8.4% WIN
LSU @ Texas Tech Texas Tech 47.1% +174 +12.2% WIN