Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-08
All Games Summary
Total Picks
6
Final results
6
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
0
Pending
0
Accuracy
100.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (6)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 49, Kansas State (10-12) 108 [59] 52-96 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 159.0		 Kansas State (96.4%)
Southern (9-13) 69, Texas (14-9) 95 [26] 68-93 ✓ MAE: 1.5
BET OVER 157.0		 Texas (96.4%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 44, Charleston Southern (11-13) 84 [40] 63-82 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 156.0		 Charleston Southern (80.8%)
Grambling (10-11) 60, Southern Miss (12-13) 68 [8] 63-68 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET UNDER 142.2		 Southern Miss (76.0%)
Lafayette (7-17) 72, Pennsylvania (10-10) 74 [2] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 149.5		 Pennsylvania (68.0%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 83, New Orleans (11-13) 84 [1] 70-76 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 148.8		 New Orleans (51.8%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
6
Final results
6
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
0
Pending
0
Accuracy
100.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
6
Avg Confidence
76.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2384
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
75.0%
ML Profit
$-3
ML ROI
-0.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$27
ROI
27.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
2
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-9
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
6
Avg Confidence
45.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2316
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-18
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
South Carolina State 44 @ Charleston Southern 84 Charleston Southern (80.8%) Charleston Southern -11.5 +7.5 +19.0 +40.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$27
ROI
27.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina State 44, Charleston Southern 84 [40] Charleston Southern 80.8% -370 +5.6% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$122
ROI
61.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern Charleston Southern 80.8% -370 +5.6% WIN
Incarnate Word @ New Orleans New Orleans 51.8% -105 +2.9% WIN