Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-09
All Games Summary
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
29
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
90.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (32)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 67, Kentucky (16-7) 103 [36] 58-91 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 148.5		 Kentucky (97.0%)
Little Rock (9-14) 58, West Virginia (14-8) 90 [32] 53-78 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 131.8		 West Virginia (96.9%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 60, Virginia #18 (19-3) 84 [24] 54-80 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 134.5		 Virginia (96.9%)
Coppin State (3-21) 65, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 87 [22] 62-82 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 146.8		 Saint Joseph's (96.4%)
Oakwood (0-3) 46, Chattanooga (9-14) 103 [57] 76-89 ✗ MAE: 21.9 Chattanooga (95.6%)
Dominican (CA) (0-2) 71, California (17-6) 93 [22] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 6.4 California (95.5%)
Bob Jones (0-3) 57, Furman (16-8) 105 [48] 71-88 ✗ MAE: 15.4 Furman (95.5%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 55, Colorado State (12-10) 76 [21] 68-84 ✗ MAE: 10.5
O/U: 152.5		 Colorado State (95.2%)
Morgan State (9-13) 49, DePaul (12-11) 92 [43] 58-82 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 149.8		 DePaul (95.2%)
Brown (7-13) 79, Providence (10-13) 86 [7] 70-84 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 146.5		 Providence (95.1%)
Brescia (0-2) 53, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 92 [39] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 13.9 Northern Kentucky (94.5%)
Georgian Court (0-2) 57, Temple (14-8) 103 [46] 70-83 ✗ MAE: 16.3 Temple (94.5%)
Villanova (17-5) 61, Michigan #2 (20-1) 89 [28] 66-87 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 155.0		 Michigan (93.4%)
Northern Arizona (8-15) 48, Arizona State (12-11) 73 [25] 67-82 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 154.5		 Arizona State (90.4%)
South Dakota (13-12) 79, Wyoming (13-10) 106 [27] 72-84 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 161.0		 Wyoming (89.5%)
Toccoa Falls (0-4) 62, Winthrop (17-8) 111 [49] 80-93 ✗ MAE: 18.3 Winthrop (89.4%)
Penn State (10-12) 72, Indiana (15-8) 113 [41] 68-89 ✗ MAE: 13.7
BET OVER 152.5		 Indiana (86.9%)
Colorado Christian (0-2) 59, Denver (9-15) 95 [36] 75-86 ✗ MAE: 12.8 Denver (81.0%)
Arkansas Baptist (0-3) 69, UL Monroe (4-20) 79 [10] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 0.9 UL Monroe (80.9%)
Southern Wesleyan (0-3) 73, The Citadel (8-15) 98 [25] 76-87 ✓ MAE: 7.0 The Citadel (80.8%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 83, San José State (6-16) 89 [6] 71-79 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET OVER 140.8		 San José State (74.5%)
San Diego (10-15) 81, USC (17-6) 94 [13] 83-76 ✓ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 158.0		 USC (72.0%)
UMBC (13-8) 79, Buffalo (14-9) 83 [4] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 6.0 UMBC (69.5%)
Ball State (7-15) 64, South Dakota State (11-13) 68 [4] 77-73 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 142.5		 South Dakota State (64.5%)
Clemson #20 (19-4) 64, BYU #16 (17-5) 67 [3] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 152.2		 BYU (63.8%)
Florida #17 (16-6) 73, UConn #3 (22-1) 77 [4] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 146.0		 UConn (63.8%)
Columbia (14-7) 73, Stony Brook (14-9) 77 [4] 78-71 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 148.0		 Columbia (56.3%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 69, Howard (14-9) 73 [4] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Howard (52.3%) DOG
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 70, VMI (6-18) 86 [16] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 4.5
O/U: 149.2		 VMI (52.1%) DOG
Ohio State (14-7) 80, Illinois #5 (20-3) 88 [8] 75-73 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 162.0		 Illinois (50.8%)
Rhode Island (13-9) 64, McNeese (18-5) 66 [2] 65-72 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 145.8		 Rhode Island (50.7%) DOG
Rider (3-18) 38, Bucknell (8-16) 51 [13] 54-60 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 135.2		 Bucknell (50.0%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
29
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
90.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
32
Avg Confidence
77.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1488
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
78.6%
ML Profit
$87
ML ROI
6.2%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$20
ROI
10.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$20
ROI
10.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
8
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-36
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
22
Avg Confidence
53.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2699
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
18
O/U Wins
8
O/U Losses
10
O/U Win Rate
44.4%
O/U Profit
$-273
O/U ROI
-15.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$20
ROI
10.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Carolina A&T 69, Howard 73 [4] Howard 52.3% +120 +8.7% WIN
Rhode Island 64, McNeese 66 [2] Rhode Island 50.7% +117 +6.5% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$20
ROI
10.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Carolina A&T 69, Howard 73 [4] Howard 52.3% +120 +8.7% WIN
Rhode Island 64, McNeese 66 [2] Rhode Island 50.7% +117 +6.5% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
USC @ San Diego San Diego 28.0% +950 +18.9% LOSS
Illinois @ Ohio State Ohio State 49.2% +157 +11.9% LOSS
Penn State @ Indiana Penn State 13.1% +850 +3.1% LOSS