Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-10
All Games Summary
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
81.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (32)
Jackson State (6-16) 38, Houston #8 (20-2) 80 [42] 48-87 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 137.0		 Houston (97.0%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 84, Tulsa (20-3) 117 [33] 75-92 ✗ MAE: 16.9
BET OVER 155.8		 Tulsa (96.6%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 67, Baylor (13-9) 97 [30] 59-89 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 148.5		 Baylor (96.0%)
George Washington (13-10) 58, Delaware (6-16) 70 [12] 64-79 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 152.2		 George Washington (95.3%)
Minnesota (11-12) 57, Purdue #12 (18-4) 85 [28] 56-80 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 142.5		 Purdue (95.1%)
UAlbany (7-16) 82, Yale (16-4) 93 [11] 70-88 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET OVER 146.5		 Yale (94.6%)
Bethesda University (0-7) 66, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 116 [50] 78-92 ✗ MAE: 18.1 Cal State Fullerton (93.7%)
Duquesne (13-10) 64, Boise State (14-9) 86 [22] 69-83 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 150.5		 Boise State (87.5%)
Idaho (13-9) 65, Notre Dame (11-12) 80 [15] 65-79 ✓ MAE: 0.6
O/U: 144.5		 Notre Dame (85.5%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 54, Fordham (12-11) 75 [21] 55-73 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 141.5		 Fordham (83.3%)
Idaho State (10-13) 69, Utah Valley (16-6) 73 [4] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 141.2		 Utah Valley (82.4%)
Colgate (14-10) 77, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 85 [8] 70-82 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 142.2		 St. Bonaventure (81.4%)
Tougaloo (0-2) 72, Tulane (13-9) 84 [12] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 5.5 Tulane (81.0%)
Lamar (12-11) 71, San Diego State (16-6) 89 [18] 62-80 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET OVER 136.0		 San Diego State (80.7%)
College Of Biblical Studies (0-9) 49, Nicholls (10-13) 117 [68] 71-82 ✗ MAE: 28.2 Nicholls (80.6%)
VCU (17-6) 78, New Mexico (18-5) 81 [3] 72-82 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 157.5		 VCU (77.7%)
Charleston (15-8) 75, South Florida (15-8) 81 [6] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 160.5		 South Florida (77.4%)
Bryant (7-15) 63, Iona (14-9) 69 [6] 64-72 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 146.8		 Iona (76.3%)
Liberty (19-3) 45, NC State (17-6) 85 [40] 60-78 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 148.8		 NC State (75.7%)
Boston University (9-15) 59, Maine (5-18) 69 [10] 58-71 ✗ MAE: 11.5
O/U: 128.2		 Boston University (74.5%)
Wisconsin (16-6) 60, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 90 [30] 64-74 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 158.5		 Nebraska (69.6%)
UT Martin (18-5) 54, Southern Illinois (10-13) 83 [29] 60-74 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 146.5		 Southern Illinois (68.1%)
Southern (9-13) 83, Texas State (14-11) 86 [3] 69-81 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET OVER 142.2		 Texas State (63.2%)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 65, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 80 [15] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 146.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (62.9%)
Princeton (8-14) 56, Merrimack (14-9) 59 [3] 58-67 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 135.5		 Princeton (61.1%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 59, Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 68 [9] 73-68 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 149.2		 Eastern Kentucky (60.4%)
Kansas City (4-20) 60, Weber State (11-12) 64 [4] 77-70 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 149.5		 Weber State (58.3%)
Boston College (9-13) 74, Massachusetts (15-9) 76 [2] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET OVER 144.0		 Boston College (57.1%)
UNC Asheville (11-13) 87, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 90 [3] 77-78 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 152.5		 Miami (OH) (56.9%)
Fresno State (11-11) 87, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 89 [2] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 161.5		 Cal State Northridge (56.3%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 61, Marshall (15-8) 77 [16] 72-81 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 159.8		 Marshall (56.1%)
New Haven (10-12) 64, NJIT (11-12) 70 [6] 70-61 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 130.5		 New Haven (52.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
81.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
32
Avg Confidence
80.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1069
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
23
ML Win Rate
65.2%
ML Profit
$-424
ML ROI
-18.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$92
ROI
92.2%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
12
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
8
ATS Win Rate
33.3%
Spread Profit
$-436
Spread ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
51.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2093
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
20
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
45.0%
O/U Profit
$-282
O/U ROI
-14.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-7.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Fairleigh Dickinson 54 @ Fordham 75 Fordham (83.3%) Fordham -11.5 +6.8 +18.3 +21.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$92
ROI
92.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Kentucky 61, Marshall 77 [16] Marshall 56.1% -108 +6.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lamar @ San Diego State Lamar 19.3% +1150 +11.7% LOSS
Liberty @ NC State Liberty 24.3% +700 +12.4% LOSS
UT Martin @ Southern Illinois UT Martin 31.9% +365 +11.4% LOSS