Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-11
All Games Summary
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
Alabama State (7-15) 77, Missouri (15-7) 85 [8] 65-82 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 156.0		 Missouri (97.0%)
Trinity Baptist (0-3) 49, Jacksonville (9-14) 122 [73] 81-98 ✗ MAE: 28.0 Jacksonville (95.6%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 74, Virginia Tech (16-7) 96 [22] 64-88 ✗ MAE: 9.1
O/U: 152.5		 Virginia Tech (95.3%)
Coastal Georgia (0-3) 58, Georgia Southern (14-11) 100 [42] 72-83 ✗ MAE: 15.8 Georgia Southern (94.7%)
Iowa (17-5) 62, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 66 [4] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 6.8
O/U: 140.8		 Iowa State (83.7%)
Saint Joseph's (15-8) 63, Syracuse (13-10) 71 [8] 62-72 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Syracuse (76.3%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 69, North Dakota State (19-5) 80 [11] 80-76 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 149.5		 North Dakota State (65.2%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 50, UT Arlington (14-7) 58 [8] 59-66 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 145.2		 UT Rio Grande Valley (58.7%)
East Carolina (7-15) 54, App State (16-9) 67 [13] 65-70 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 131.0		 East Carolina (58.3%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 75, Green Bay (13-12) 85 [10] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 165.2		 IU Indianapolis (55.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
77.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1708
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
5
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$-133
ML ROI
-26.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
2
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-9
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
8
Avg Confidence
42.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.5579
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
6
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-27
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
IU Indianapolis 75, Green Bay 85 [10] IU Indianapolis 55.2% N/A N/A LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-35
ROI
-11.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Saint Joseph's @ Syracuse Saint Joseph's 23.7% +487 +7.4% LOSS
App State @ East Carolina App State 41.7% +165 +5.4% WIN
North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield Cal State Bakersfield 34.8% +200 +2.9% LOSS