Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-12
All Games Summary
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 66, McNeese (18-5) 102 [36] 62-80 ✗ MAE: 12.8
O/U: 143.0		 McNeese (95.0%)
Vermont State - Johnson (0-3) 60, Stonehill (9-14) 101 [41] 70-85 ✗ MAE: 13.3 Stonehill (94.6%)
Missouri State (13-9) 57, Xavier (12-11) 75 [18] 67-75 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 151.0		 Xavier (94.0%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 78, Queens University (12-11) 102 [24] 69-94 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 157.5		 Queens University (93.3%)
Texas (14-9) 63, UConn #3 (22-1) 71 [8] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 146.2		 UConn (90.5%)
UMBC (13-8) 60, Army (10-14) 63 [3] 64-78 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 146.5		 UMBC (82.3%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 79, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 82 [3] 66-70 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 130.5		 North Carolina A&T (81.8%)
Dallas Christian (0-3) 55, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 108 [53] 62-80 ✗ MAE: 17.8 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (81.1%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 83, California Baptist (16-6) 88 [5] 79-76 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 154.0		 California Baptist (54.2%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 75, Austin Peay (16-6) 76 [1] 75-68 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 144.0		 East Tennessee State (54.0%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
82.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1787
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
3
ML Win Rate
66.7%
ML Profit
$-40
ML ROI
-13.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
1
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
0
ATS Win Rate
100.0%
Spread Profit
$91
Spread ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
8
Avg Confidence
44.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3076
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
7
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$64
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Army 63 @ UMBC 60 UMBC (82.3%) UMBC -7.5 +6.6 +14.1 -3.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$58
ROI
28.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
East Tennessee State @ Austin Peay Austin Peay 46.0% +157 +8.7% WIN
California Baptist @ Eastern Washington Eastern Washington 45.8% +157 +8.4% LOSS