Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-13
All Games Summary
Total Picks
98
Final results
98
Correct picks
74
Incorrect picks
24
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (98)
Mercer (15-8) 63, Clemson #20 (19-4) 70 [7] 65-80 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 151.2		 Clemson (97.2%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 69, Washington (12-11) 105 [36] 60-87 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET UNDER 153.5		 Washington (97.1%)
Iona (14-9) 64, St. John's #22 (17-5) 91 [27] 61-82 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 159.8		 St. John's (97.1%)
Jackson State (6-16) 53, Northwestern (10-13) 93 [40] 62-89 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET OVER 146.5		 Northwestern (96.9%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 53, BYU #16 (17-5) 100 [47] 54-96 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 154.8		 BYU (96.9%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 79, Miami (17-5) 104 [25] 71-98 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 154.0		 Miami (96.9%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 62, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 80 [18] 58-83 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 152.5		 North Carolina (96.8%)
The Citadel (8-15) 55, South Carolina (11-12) 71 [16] 55-83 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 142.0		 South Carolina (96.7%)
New Orleans (11-13) 57, Houston #8 (20-2) 99 [42] 50-90 ✓ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 138.8		 Houston (96.7%)
UTSA (4-18) 64, Colorado (13-10) 88 [24] 67-89 ✓ MAE: 2.1
O/U: 154.8		 Colorado (96.5%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 78, Auburn (14-8) 92 [14] 72-90 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 150.5		 Auburn (96.1%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 72, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 83 [11] 64-92 ✗ MAE: 8.6
O/U: 157.2		 Vanderbilt (96.1%)
North Florida (5-18) 61, Dayton (15-8) 84 [23] 59-87 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 159.5		 Dayton (96.0%)
Bob Jones (0-3) 55, Winthrop (17-8) 101 [46] 77-90 ✗ MAE: 16.3 Winthrop (95.7%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 68, Georgetown (13-10) 76 [8] 65-77 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 140.2		 Georgetown (95.6%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 70, California (17-6) 79 [9] 63-80 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 144.8		 California (95.2%)
Justice College (0-3) 48, Utah Tech (13-11) 89 [41] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 15.8 Utah Tech (94.6%)
UAlbany (7-16) 79, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 105 [26] 73-97 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 149.5		 Florida Atlantic (93.8%)
Ecclesia (0-5) 52, Oral Roberts (5-19) 97 [45] 71-83 ✗ MAE: 16.6 Oral Roberts (93.7%)
Arkansas Baptist (0-3) 59, Alabama A&M (12-10) 67 [8] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 5.9 Alabama A&M (93.3%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 61, George Mason (20-3) 73 [12] 61-76 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 144.2		 George Mason (92.6%)
Evansville (5-18) 58, Notre Dame (11-12) 82 [24] 57-74 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 136.5		 Notre Dame (92.2%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 61, Grand Canyon (15-7) 82 [21] 60-84 ✓ MAE: 1.6
O/U: 143.5		 Grand Canyon (91.9%)
Memphis (10-11) 73, Louisville #24 (16-6) 99 [26] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 162.8		 Louisville (91.7%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 67, Ole Miss (11-11) 71 [4] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 138.5		 Ole Miss (91.2%)
Marquette (8-15) 59, Purdue #12 (18-4) 79 [20] 65-89 ✓ MAE: 7.7
O/U: 154.2		 Purdue (90.9%)
Longwood (13-12) 76, Delaware State (6-15) 81 [5] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 139.5		 Longwood (90.0%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 71, Quinnipiac (15-9) 75 [4] 69-81 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 153.8		 Quinnipiac (89.1%)
Rutgers (9-14) 59, Seton Hall (16-7) 81 [22] 59-73 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 136.8		 Seton Hall (89.0%)
San Francisco (14-11) 75, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 85 [10] 69-82 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 155.2		 Saint Louis (88.6%)
Florida State (10-12) 95, Massachusetts (15-9) 103 [8] 76-86 ✗ MAE: 17.9
BET UNDER 166.5		 Florida State (88.3%)
UIC (13-11) 84, Belmont (21-3) 87 [3] 68-81 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 154.5		 Belmont (86.4%)
UTEP (8-15) 61, Hawai'i (16-5) 66 [5] 59-75 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 138.5		 Hawai'i (86.1%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 47, Davidson (13-9) 80 [33] 58-71 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 132.2		 Davidson (85.3%)
Louisiana (8-16) 44, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 65 [21] 53-65 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 125.5		 Louisiana Tech (82.6%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 79, Elon (13-10) 85 [6] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 156.8		 Elon (82.3%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 61, Villanova (17-5) 79 [18] 62-75 ✓ MAE: 2.7
O/U: 138.2		 Villanova (82.1%)
UCLA (16-7) 72, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 82 [10] 72-84 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET OVER 148.0		 Gonzaga (81.7%)
Syracuse (13-10) 69, Hofstra (14-9) 70 [1] 62-72 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 139.5		 Syracuse (81.5%)
Bethel (TN) (0-2) 69, Tennessee Tech (9-14) 101 [32] 77-86 ✗ MAE: 11.2 Tennessee Tech (81.0%)
Manhattan (9-15) 53, Fordham (12-11) 82 [29] 61-79 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 147.5		 Fordham (79.0%)
George Washington (13-10) 70, Florida #17 (16-6) 80 [10] 65-83 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 162.5		 Florida (77.9%)
Oakland (14-11) 63, Northern Iowa (14-9) 75 [12] 63-79 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 149.5		 Northern Iowa (77.1%)
UC Davis (13-9) 62, Oregon (8-14) 104 [42] 66-86 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 146.8		 Oregon (76.9%)
Illinois #5 (20-3) 80, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 83 [3] 70-79 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 156.5		 Illinois (76.5%)
Duquesne (13-10) 75, Nevada (16-7) 78 [3] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 152.5		 Nevada (75.8%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 65, Georgia (16-6) 84 [19] 72-85 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 157.5		 Georgia (75.5%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 85, South Dakota (13-12) 97 [12] 78-90 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 167.2		 South Dakota (75.3%)
UNLV (10-12) 60, Tennessee State (14-8) 63 [3] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 160.0		 UNLV (75.1%)
North Dakota (13-12) 66, Western Illinois (4-19) 69 [3] 63-75 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 146.2		 North Dakota (74.8%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 55, Stony Brook (14-9) 78 [23] 61-77 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 145.2		 Stony Brook (74.3%)
Tulane (13-9) 67, UC San Diego (15-8) 93 [26] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 149.8		 UC San Diego (74.0%)
Maryland (8-13) 83, Michigan #2 (20-1) 101 [18] 84-74 ✗ MAE: 12.8
BET UNDER 162.2		 Michigan (70.3%)
Niagara (6-17) 73, Morgan State (9-13) 81 [8] 64-71 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 140.8		 Morgan State (70.2%)
Akron (19-4) 100, Murray State (17-7) 115 [15] 82-91 ✗ MAE: 20.9
BET OVER 168.2		 Akron (69.6%)
Maine (5-18) 43, Canisius (8-16) 70 [27] 59-56 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 127.2		 Maine (69.3%)
Wichita State (14-9) 58, DePaul (12-11) 61 [3] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 145.5		 Wichita State (68.8%)
Penn State (10-12) 72, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 76 [4] 80-76 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 144.8		 Michigan State (68.8%)
Drake (12-12) 94, North Dakota State (19-5) 99 [5] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 20.5
BET OVER 146.0		 Drake (68.5%)
San José State (6-16) 82, Stanford (14-9) 86 [4] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 11.0
O/U: 145.5		 Stanford (67.6%)
Binghamton (5-18) 67, Central Connecticut (11-10) 84 [17] 71-69 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 133.8		 Central Connecticut (66.8%)
Denver (9-15) 86, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 105 [19] 84-89 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET OVER 165.5		 Denver (66.0%)
Providence (10-13) 110, Butler (13-10) 113 [3] 78-83 ✗ MAE: 31.1
BET UNDER 164.8		 Butler (65.9%)
Creighton (12-11) 76, Kansas State (10-12) 83 [7] 68-79 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 159.2		 Creighton (65.2%)
NJIT (11-12) 49, Sacred Heart (10-14) 65 [16] 73-63 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 153.0		 Sacred Heart (65.1%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 84, Richmond (13-10) 93 [9] 73-78 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 153.5		 Richmond (64.5%)
Wright State (15-9) 74, Marshall (15-8) 76 [2] 71-78 ✓ MAE: 2.9
O/U: 149.2		 Marshall (63.6%)
Santa Clara (20-5) 79, Arizona State (12-11) 82 [3] 75-87 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 154.8		 Santa Clara (63.2%)
Boston University (9-15) 64, Dartmouth (10-10) 77 [13] 67-73 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 145.2		 Dartmouth (63.2%)
Oklahoma State (16-6) 76, Oklahoma (11-12) 85 [9] 78-82 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 169.5		 Oklahoma State (62.9%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 71, SE Louisiana (6-17) 74 [3] 65-70 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 132.8		 Houston Christian (61.7%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 83, Ohio (13-11) 88 [5] 81-77 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 150.2		 St. Bonaventure (61.6%)
NC State (17-6) 76, Kansas #11 (17-5) 77 [1] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 NC State (60.1%)
Toledo (12-11) 70, Robert Morris (15-10) 75 [5] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 154.2		 Robert Morris (59.5%) DOG
Indiana (15-8) 60, Kentucky (16-7) 72 [12] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 157.0		 Kentucky (59.2%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 69, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 79 [10] 81-79 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 158.2		 Miami (OH) (59.0%)
Northern Arizona (8-15) 69, San Diego (10-15) 78 [9] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 149.5		 San Diego (59.0%)
Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 86, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 93 [7] 81-84 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 155.5		 Arkansas (58.7%)
Montana State (13-10) 57, Oregon State (13-12) 67 [10] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 140.2		 Oregon State (58.7%)
Jacksonville State (11-10) 73, Georgia State (9-15) 77 [4] 73-69 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 139.5		 Jacksonville State (58.4%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 70, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 73 [3] 70-66 ✓ MAE: 3.3
O/U: 136.5		 UNC Wilmington (58.4%)
La Salle (7-16) 60, Long Island University (14-8) 70 [10] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 7.3
O/U: 143.8		 Long Island University (57.9%)
SMU (15-7) 77, LSU (14-8) 89 [12] 80-80 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 158.2		 LSU (57.8%)
Bellarmine (9-13) 76, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 80 [4] 81-76 ✓ MAE: 0.4
BET OVER 146.8		 Northern Kentucky (57.5%)
Delaware (6-16) 66, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 88 [22] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 144.8		 Delaware (56.5%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 62, Pepperdine (6-18) 70 [8] 67-72 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 147.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (55.2%)
UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 53, Utah Valley (16-6) 68 [15] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 147.5		 Utah Valley (53.9%)
Utah (9-13) 74, Mississippi State (11-11) 82 [8] 73-78 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 152.2		 Utah (53.9%) DOG
New Mexico State (11-11) 70, Tulsa (20-3) 83 [13] 76-78 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 145.8		 Tulsa (53.7%)
West Georgia (10-12) 85, Georgia Southern (14-11) 91 [6] 81-84 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 154.0		 Georgia Southern (52.6%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 73, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 81 [8] 71-76 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 151.0		 Loyola Maryland (52.3%) DOG
UNC Asheville (11-13) 59, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 80 [21] 77-74 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 148.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (52.3%)
Illinois State (15-8) 78, Utah State (19-3) 83 [5] 71-80 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 148.5		 Utah State (52.1%)
Alabama (15-7) 75, Arizona #1 (22-0) 96 [21] 84-86 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 178.0		 Alabama (51.4%) DOG
Hampton (10-13) 57, Howard (14-9) 61 [4] 64-67 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 141.5		 Howard (51.1%) DOG
Arkansas State (14-10) 76, Rice (10-13) 77 [1] 76-79 ✓ MAE: 1.4
O/U: 156.0		 Rice (51.0%) DOG
West Virginia (14-8) 88, Ohio State (14-7) 89 [1] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 19.0
BET UNDER 145.2		 Ohio State (50.8%) DOG
Bryant (7-15) 74, Marist (15-7) 82 [8] 65-72 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET OVER 131.5		 Bryant (50.8%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
98
Final results
98
Correct picks
74
Incorrect picks
24
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
98
Avg Confidence
75.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0500
Calibration Quality
Excellent
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
80
ML Win Rate
71.2%
ML Profit
$-594
ML ROI
-7.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
11
Wins
7
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
63.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$584
ROI
53.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
10
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$552
ROI
36.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
32
ATS Wins
12
ATS Losses
20
ATS Win Rate
37.5%
Spread Profit
$-909
Spread ROI
-28.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-14.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
91
Avg Confidence
51.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2309
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
81
O/U Wins
41
O/U Losses
40
O/U Win Rate
50.6%
O/U Profit
$-273
O/U ROI
-3.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-1.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
5
Completed
5
Covered
5
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$454
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
5
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
80.0%
O/U Profit
$264
O/U ROI
52.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+27.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Manhattan 53 @ Fordham 82 Fordham (79.0%) Fordham -8.8 +9.5 +18.2 +29.0 COVERED
Central Michigan 55 @ Stony Brook 78 Stony Brook (74.3%) Stony Brook -6.5 +9.3 +15.8 +23.0 COVERED
Cincinnati 65 @ Georgia 84 Georgia (75.5%) Georgia -5.2 +8.0 +13.3 +19.0 COVERED
Tulane 67 @ UC San Diego 93 UC San Diego (74.0%) UC San Diego -6.0 +7.9 +13.9 +26.0 COVERED
Oakland 63 @ Northern Iowa 75 Northern Iowa (77.1%) Northern Iowa -8.5 +7.3 +15.8 +12.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
11
Wins
7
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
63.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$584
ROI
53.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Toledo 70, Robert Morris 75 [5] Robert Morris 59.5% N/A N/A WIN
SMU 77, LSU 89 [12] LSU 57.8% N/A N/A WIN
UC Santa Barbara 53, Utah Valley 68 [15] Utah Valley 53.9% +160 +16.7% WIN
Utah 74, Mississippi State 82 [8] Utah 53.9% N/A N/A LOSS
Loyola Maryland 73, Mount St. Mary's 81 [8] Loyola Maryland 52.3% +118 +8.4% LOSS
Illinois State 78, Utah State 83 [5] Utah State 52.1% +300 +28.3% WIN
Alabama 75, Arizona 96 [21] Alabama 51.4% +107 +5.2% LOSS
Hampton 57, Howard 61 [4] Howard 51.1% +140 +11.0% WIN
Arkansas State 76, Rice 77 [1] Rice 51.0% +133 +9.8% WIN
West Virginia 88, Ohio State 89 [1] Ohio State 50.8% +150 +12.3% WIN
Bryant 74, Marist 82 [8] Bryant 50.8% +142 +11.2% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
10
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$552
ROI
36.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois State 78, Utah State 83 [5] Utah State 52.1% +300 +28.3% WIN
UC Santa Barbara 53, Utah Valley 68 [15] Utah Valley 53.9% +160 +16.7% WIN
West Virginia 88, Ohio State 89 [1] Ohio State 50.8% +150 +12.3% WIN
Bryant 74, Marist 82 [8] Bryant 50.8% +142 +11.2% LOSS
Hampton 57, Howard 61 [4] Howard 51.1% +140 +11.0% WIN
Arkansas State 76, Rice 77 [1] Rice 51.0% +133 +9.8% WIN
Texas Tech 86, Arkansas 93 [7] Arkansas 58.7% -115 +8.5% WIN
Loyola Maryland 73, Mount St. Mary's 81 [8] Loyola Maryland 52.3% +118 +8.4% LOSS
Oklahoma State 76, Oklahoma 85 [9] Oklahoma State 62.9% -135 +7.6% LOSS
UAlbany 79, Florida Atlantic 105 [26] Florida Atlantic 93.8% -900 +7.5% WIN
San Francisco 75, Saint Louis 85 [10] Saint Louis 88.6% -612 +6.7% WIN
Rutgers 59, Seton Hall 81 [22] Seton Hall 89.0% -675 +6.0% WIN
Alabama 75, Arizona 96 [21] Alabama 51.4% +107 +5.2% LOSS
Santa Clara 79, Arizona State 82 [3] Santa Clara 63.2% -154 +5.1% LOSS
Tulane 67, UC San Diego 93 [26] UC San Diego 74.0% -255 +5.0% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
4
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$650
ROI
130.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois State 78, Utah State 83 [5] Utah State 52.1% +300 +28.3% WIN
UC Santa Barbara 53, Utah Valley 68 [15] Utah Valley 53.9% +160 +16.7% WIN
West Virginia 88, Ohio State 89 [1] Ohio State 50.8% +150 +12.3% WIN
Bryant 74, Marist 82 [8] Bryant 50.8% +142 +11.2% LOSS
Hampton 57, Howard 61 [4] Howard 51.1% +140 +11.0% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$100
ROI
33.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan @ Maryland Maryland 29.7% +1250 +22.7% LOSS
Michigan State @ Penn State Penn State 31.2% +575 +17.1% LOSS
Illinois State @ Utah State Utah State 52.1% +300 +28.3% WIN