Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-14
All Games Summary
Total Picks
28
Final results
28
Correct picks
23
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (28)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 53, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 78 [25] 51-87 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 144.5		 Iowa State (97.0%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 51, Iowa (17-5) 91 [40] 54-87 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 137.2		 Iowa (96.9%)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 60, Missouri (15-7) 82 [22] 65-86 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 148.0		 Missouri (96.7%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 53, Virginia Tech (16-7) 82 [29] 61-80 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 138.5		 Virginia Tech (96.5%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 75, Texas A&M (17-5) 112 [37] 62-98 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET OVER 147.8		 Texas A&M (96.2%)
Coppin State (3-21) 77, Radford (13-12) 107 [30] 71-98 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET OVER 153.8		 Radford (95.4%)
Eureka (0-2) 54, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 97 [43] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 15.2 SIU Edwardsville (94.4%)
Evergreen State (0-2) 55, Idaho (13-9) 109 [54] 71-84 ✗ MAE: 20.4 Idaho (94.4%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 67, Temple (14-8) 95 [28] 58-86 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 150.2		 Temple (94.2%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 53, Minnesota (11-12) 89 [36] 60-89 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 144.5		 Minnesota (94.1%)
Queens University (12-11) 73, Wake Forest (11-11) 111 [38] 73-96 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 165.5		 Wake Forest (92.6%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 59, New Mexico (18-5) 75 [16] 63-81 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 159.5		 New Mexico (92.4%)
Washington State (11-14) 61, USC (17-6) 68 [7] 65-74 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 156.5		 USC (90.2%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 75, Chicago State (2-19) 84 [9] 58-80 ✗ MAE: 15.9
BET UNDER 140.8		 Loyola Chicago (87.4%)
Champion Christian (0-6) 52, UT Martin (18-5) 96 [44] 73-88 ✗ MAE: 14.6 UT Martin (85.2%)
Oakland City (0-2) 52, Cleveland State (10-14) 96 [44] 62-74 ✗ MAE: 16.2 Cleveland State (81.2%)
Ball State (7-15) 64, Campbell (10-13) 69 [5] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 145.5		 Campbell (73.8%)
UAB (14-8) 85, Troy (16-8) 86 [1] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 155.5		 UAB (73.6%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 77, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 81 [4] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 153.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (72.2%)
Merrimack (14-9) 59, Vermont (14-9) 66 [7] 59-67 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET UNDER 136.0		 Vermont (69.7%)
Charlotte (13-10) 67, Charleston (15-8) 74 [7] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 140.5		 Charleston (68.7%)
Kent State (17-6) 78, Portland (11-14) 88 [10] 82-76 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 160.5		 Kent State (67.0%)
High Point (21-4) 78, App State (16-9) 86 [8] 69-76 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 144.8		 App State (66.3%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 68, Indiana State (10-14) 70 [2] 71-80 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 160.5		 Milwaukee (59.1%)
South Alabama (16-7) 57, North Texas (12-11) 58 [1] 60-67 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 135.5		 South Alabama (58.8%)
Buffalo (14-9) 70, East Carolina (7-15) 73 [3] 71-76 ✓ MAE: 2.1
O/U: 146.5		 East Carolina (54.3%)
Saint Mary's (20-4) 67, Boise State (14-9) 68 [1] 67-69 ✓ MAE: 0.4
BET UNDER 139.5		 Boise State (50.7%) DOG
Monmouth (11-12) 65, Fairfield (14-10) 73 [8] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 143.5		 Fairfield (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
28
Final results
28
Correct picks
23
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
28
Avg Confidence
81.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1216
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
19
ML Win Rate
73.7%
ML Profit
$21
ML ROI
1.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$232
ROI
115.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$232
ROI
115.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
8
ATS Wins
5
ATS Losses
3
ATS Win Rate
62.5%
Spread Profit
$154
Spread ROI
19.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
52.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2017
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
24
O/U Wins
11
O/U Losses
13
O/U Win Rate
45.8%
O/U Profit
$-300
O/U ROI
-12.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-6.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$232
ROI
115.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Saint Mary's 67, Boise State 68 [1] Boise State 50.7% +114 +5.9% WIN
Monmouth 65, Fairfield 73 [8] Fairfield 50.3% +117 +6.1% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$232
ROI
115.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Monmouth 65, Fairfield 73 [8] Fairfield 50.3% +117 +6.1% WIN
Saint Mary's 67, Boise State 68 [1] Boise State 50.7% +114 +5.9% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$270
ROI
90.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia Tech Maryland Eastern Shore 3.5% +3500 +0.8% LOSS
Kent State @ Portland Portland 33.0% +252 +5.8% WIN
Monmouth @ Fairfield Fairfield 50.3% +117 +6.1% WIN