Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-15
All Games Summary
Total Picks
11
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
1
Accuracy
80.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (1)
East-West University (0-3) 0, Southern Indiana (5-17) 0 [0] 71-86 Southern Indiana (81.0%)
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
Niagara (6-17) 58, VCU (17-6) 84 [26] 59-84 ✓ MAE: 0.5
O/U: 143.2		 VCU (96.7%)
Bryan (TN) (0-4) 51, Samford (11-12) 106 [55] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 20.9 Samford (95.3%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 65, TCU (13-9) 69 [4] 59-74 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 143.0		 TCU (95.1%)
Ecclesia (0-5) 64, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 114 [50] 77-91 ✗ MAE: 18.0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (93.2%)
Rhodes (0-2) 76, Stetson (8-15) 95 [19] 75-86 ✓ MAE: 4.9 Stetson (80.8%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 68, McNeese (18-5) 78 [10] 74-69 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 137.8		 McNeese (74.7%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 57, Wofford (16-8) 83 [26] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 155.2		 Wofford (72.8%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 69, East Texas A&M (8-15) 70 [1] 63-77 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 137.8		 SE Louisiana (60.4%)
North Alabama (7-14) 60, Alabama A&M (12-10) 68 [8] 70-64 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 139.5		 North Alabama (55.3%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 72, Wyoming (13-10) 87 [15] 80-74 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 149.5		 Wyoming (51.9%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
11
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
1
Accuracy
80.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
78.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0526
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
75.0%
ML Profit
$-23
ML ROI
-5.7%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
1
ATS Wins
0
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
0.0%
Spread Profit
$-100
Spread ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
7
Avg Confidence
53.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.5066
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
6
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-27
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
McNeese @ Houston Christian Houston Christian 25.3% +775 +14.4% LOSS
Wofford @ Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb 27.2% +425 +9.0% LOSS
Wyoming @ South Dakota State South Dakota State 48.1% +160 +10.9% LOSS