Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-16
All Games Summary
Total Picks
41
Final results
41
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (41)
Toledo (12-11) 69, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 92 [23] 65-91 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET OVER 151.0		 Michigan State (97.3%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 62, Arizona #1 (22-0) 96 [34] 60-91 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 144.2		 Arizona (97.3%)
Pacific (15-10) 57, BYU #16 (17-5) 93 [36] 58-90 ✓ MAE: 1.8
O/U: 149.2		 BYU (97.3%)
Queens University (12-11) 80, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 108 [28] 80-107 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET OVER 169.5		 Arkansas (97.2%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 53, Texas (14-9) 95 [42] 62-90 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 152.5		 Texas (96.9%)
Kansas City (4-20) 67, Oklahoma (11-12) 89 [22] 60-88 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 153.5		 Oklahoma (96.7%)
Canisius (8-16) 45, Rhode Island (13-9) 62 [17] 56-70 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 137.8		 Rhode Island (96.6%)
Lipscomb (15-9) 73, Duke #4 (21-1) 97 [24] 68-92 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 151.2		 Duke (96.4%)
Florida International (11-11) 81, Miami (17-5) 98 [17] 73-94 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 161.2		 Miami (96.3%)
Chicago State (2-19) 55, Bowling Green (14-9) 76 [21] 62-86 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 149.0		 Bowling Green (95.8%)
Mary Baldwin (0-2) 47, High Point (21-4) 129 [82] 74-93 ✗ MAE: 31.4 High Point (95.4%)
Kentucky Christian (0-4) 73, UNC Asheville (11-13) 83 [10] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 3.0 UNC Asheville (94.3%)
DePaul (12-11) 66, St. John's #22 (17-5) 79 [13] 64-79 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 147.5		 St. John's (94.0%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 58, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 77 [19] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 151.5		 North Carolina (93.1%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 70, Northwestern (10-13) 86 [16] 64-80 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 145.5		 Northwestern (91.7%)
Long Island University (14-8) 83, Mississippi State (11-11) 87 [4] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 8.6
O/U: 152.5		 Mississippi State (91.6%)
Towson (13-11) 49, Kansas #11 (17-5) 73 [24] 58-77 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 135.8		 Kansas (90.8%)
South Carolina (11-12) 61, Clemson #20 (19-4) 68 [7] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 141.5		 Clemson (89.3%)
Midway University (0-4) 57, Liberty (19-3) 95 [38] 71-82 ✗ MAE: 13.7 Liberty (88.3%)
Butler (13-10) 60, UConn #3 (22-1) 79 [19] 63-80 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 145.5		 UConn (87.6%)
Southern (9-13) 67, California Baptist (16-6) 75 [8] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET UNDER 154.5		 California Baptist (87.3%)
Northern Colorado (13-10) 90, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 101 [11] 75-100 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 152.5		 Texas Tech (82.8%)
Ohio Wesleyan (0-2) 56, Ohio (13-11) 89 [33] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 9.9 Ohio (81.2%)
East-West University (0-3) 64, Northern Illinois (7-14) 112 [48] 74-89 ✗ MAE: 16.5 Northern Illinois (81.0%)
Rider (3-18) 57, Delaware (6-16) 65 [8] 57-67 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 129.5		 Delaware (78.9%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 64, Tarleton State (11-11) 88 [24] 78-69 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET OVER 142.0		 Tarleton State (73.7%)
Florida State (10-12) 69, Dayton (15-8) 97 [28] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 161.8		 Dayton (72.1%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 65, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 71 [6] 63-79 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 146.5		 UNC Greensboro (71.9%)
Evansville (5-18) 78, Belmont (21-3) 83 [5] 79-72 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 148.2		 Belmont (69.3%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 62, Missouri State (13-9) 63 [1] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 146.0		 Missouri State (68.3%)
Louisville #24 (16-6) 62, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 83 [21] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 156.5		 Tennessee (67.7%)
Marist (15-7) 76, Georgia Tech (11-12) 87 [11] 66-77 ✗ MAE: 10.1
O/U: 141.2		 Georgia Tech (66.5%)
Drexel (12-11) 66, Howard (14-9) 74 [8] 60-74 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 138.0		 Drexel (66.0%)
Lamar (12-11) 72, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 83 [11] 63-73 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 140.0		 Lamar (62.3%)
Little Rock (9-14) 64, Morehead State (12-11) 78 [14] 65-75 ✓ MAE: 1.9
O/U: 138.5		 Morehead State (62.1%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 72, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 78 [6] 75-71 ✓ MAE: 1.8
O/U: 147.5		 South Carolina State (58.9%) DOG
Sacred Heart (10-14) 82, UMass Lowell (9-14) 87 [5] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 151.5		 UMass Lowell (55.3%) DOG
Wright State (15-9) 76, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 83 [7] 73-79 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 149.8		 Wright State (54.5%) DOG
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 57, UC San Diego (15-8) 67 [10] 68-72 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 148.0		 Loyola Marymount (51.7%) DOG
Holy Cross (8-16) 64, Dartmouth (10-10) 89 [25] 65-73 ✗ MAE: 16.3
BET UNDER 147.5		 Holy Cross (51.3%) DOG
Cal Poly (9-14) 80, Montana State (13-10) 83 [3] 74-79 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 159.5		 Cal Poly (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
41
Final results
41
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
41
Avg Confidence
82.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0874
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
20
ML Win Rate
75.0%
ML Profit
$-228
ML ROI
-11.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-50.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
17
ATS Wins
6
ATS Losses
11
ATS Win Rate
35.3%
Spread Profit
$-555
Spread ROI
-32.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-17.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
54.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2329
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
29
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
17
O/U Win Rate
41.4%
O/U Profit
$-609
O/U ROI
-21.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-11.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
North Carolina A&T 71 @ UNC Greensboro 65 UNC Greensboro (71.9%) UNC Greensboro -6.5 +9.9 +16.4 -6.0 FAILED
Florida State 69 @ Dayton 97 Dayton (72.1%) Dayton -6.5 +7.3 +13.8 +28.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-50.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Sacred Heart 82, UMass Lowell 87 [5] UMass Lowell 55.3% N/A N/A WIN
Loyola Marymount 57, UC San Diego 67 [10] Loyola Marymount 51.7% +130 +9.9% LOSS
Holy Cross 64, Dartmouth 89 [25] Holy Cross 51.3% N/A N/A LOSS
Cal Poly 80, Montana State 83 [3] Cal Poly 50.3% +125 +6.5% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Loyola Marymount 57, UC San Diego 67 [10] Loyola Marymount 51.7% +130 +9.9% LOSS
Cal Poly 80, Montana State 83 [3] Cal Poly 50.3% +125 +6.5% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech Northern Colorado 17.2% +1600 +11.6% LOSS
Tarleton State @ Mississippi Valley State Mississippi Valley State 26.3% +900 +16.8% LOSS
Abilene Christian @ Arizona Abilene Christian 2.7% +5000 +0.8% LOSS