Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-17
All Games Summary
Total Picks
55
Final results
55
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (55)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 53, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 112 [59] 63-99 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET OVER 157.5		 Saint Louis (97.3%)
UTSA (4-18) 70, USC (17-6) 97 [27] 64-90 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 157.5		 USC (97.2%)
Campbell (10-13) 70, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 98 [28] 67-96 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 160.8		 Gonzaga (97.0%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 61, Florida #17 (16-6) 102 [41] 58-99 ✓ MAE: 2.9
O/U: 157.0		 Florida (96.9%)
Alabama A&M (12-10) 66, Ole Miss (11-11) 80 [14] 63-77 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 135.8		 Ole Miss (96.5%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 62, Syracuse (13-10) 76 [14] 57-74 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 131.8		 Syracuse (96.3%)
Longwood (13-12) 68, Wake Forest (11-11) 71 [3] 65-81 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 163.2		 Wake Forest (96.3%)
Binghamton (5-18) 63, Pittsburgh (9-14) 103 [40] 58-89 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 134.5		 Pittsburgh (96.0%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 72, NC State (17-6) 108 [36] 65-90 ✗ MAE: 12.8
O/U: 152.8		 NC State (95.8%)
Alabama State (7-15) 51, Cincinnati (11-11) 88 [37] 55-84 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 145.8		 Cincinnati (95.8%)
Air Force (3-19) 58, San Diego State (16-6) 81 [23] 56-77 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 135.5		 San Diego State (95.5%)
Mid-Atlantic Christian (0-5) 62, North Carolina Central (8-12) 96 [34] 71-84 ✗ MAE: 10.7 North Carolina Central (94.5%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 77, UAB (14-8) 101 [24] 71-96 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET OVER 158.5		 UAB (94.3%)
Dakota State (0-3) 71, South Dakota (13-12) 80 [9] 71-78 ✓ MAE: 1.2 South Dakota (94.2%)
Portland (11-14) 69, Oregon (8-14) 94 [25] 62-86 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 154.8		 Oregon (93.8%)
South Florida (15-8) 93, Alabama (15-7) 104 [11] 84-96 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 178.2		 Alabama (91.9%)
The Citadel (8-15) 78, Charleston (15-8) 82 [4] 63-79 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 145.5		 Charleston (91.2%)
Mercer (15-8) 63, UCF (17-5) 81 [18] 67-87 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 160.5		 UCF (90.9%)
Portland State (15-6) 73, Colorado (13-10) 84 [11] 70-79 ✓ MAE: 4.0
O/U: 150.5		 Colorado (89.8%)
Weber State (11-12) 74, Utah Valley (16-6) 90 [16] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 148.8		 Utah Valley (89.6%)
Southwestern Christian (0-3) 47, Rice (10-13) 94 [47] 73-83 ✗ MAE: 18.8 Rice (86.8%)
Wofford (16-8) 73, Wichita State (14-9) 84 [11] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 6.2
O/U: 144.2		 Wichita State (86.7%)
UT Arlington (14-7) 60, Stanford (14-9) 76 [16] 60-76 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 139.0		 Stanford (86.5%)
Southern Wesleyan (0-3) 63, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 98 [35] 77-85 ✗ MAE: 13.3 South Carolina Upstate (86.3%)
North Texas (12-11) 60, Santa Clara (20-5) 63 [3] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 139.5		 Santa Clara (85.9%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 71, San Francisco (14-11) 85 [14] 62-77 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 143.5		 San Francisco (84.0%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 55, UAlbany (7-16) 71 [16] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 146.5		 Stony Brook (82.7%)
Arizona State (12-11) 77, UCLA (16-7) 90 [13] 71-87 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 142.5		 UCLA (80.0%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 64, Wagner (7-13) 78 [14] 59-71 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 131.5		 Wagner (79.4%)
Champion Christian (0-6) 73, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 138 [65] 82-91 ✗ MAE: 28.0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (74.2%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 92, South Alabama (16-7) 96 [4] 77-76 ✗ MAE: 17.6
BET OVER 146.8		 South Alabama (71.8%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 60, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 69 [9] 60-71 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 139.0		 Stephen F. Austin (71.7%)
Siena (16-7) 69, Vermont (14-9) 83 [14] 62-72 ✗ MAE: 9.0
O/U: 134.2		 Vermont (69.2%)
Marquette (8-15) 69, Georgetown (13-10) 78 [9] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 149.2		 Marquette (67.7%)
Oregon State (13-12) 75, Sam Houston (16-7) 85 [10] 71-79 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 153.0		 Oregon State (63.7%)
Memphis (10-11) 70, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 77 [7] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 160.0		 Vanderbilt (63.7%)
Xavier (12-11) 57, Creighton (12-11) 98 [41] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 19.0
O/U: 151.8		 Xavier (62.6%)
Jacksonville State (11-10) 59, Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 62 [3] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 142.5		 Jacksonville State (62.4%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 64, Nicholls (10-13) 79 [15] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 138.0		 Nicholls (62.4%)
Stonehill (9-14) 58, New Hampshire (8-13) 59 [1] 67-69 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 138.5		 New Hampshire (62.0%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 63, Washington State (11-14) 78 [15] 72-77 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 154.8		 Eastern Washington (61.9%)
UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 64, Green Bay (13-12) 67 [3] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 142.5		 UC Santa Barbara (61.8%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 77, Oakland (14-11) 82 [5] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 164.2		 Northern Kentucky (60.6%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 77, Robert Morris (15-10) 80 [3] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 140.2		 Robert Morris (60.5%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 53, East Carolina (7-15) 74 [21] 62-74 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 131.5		 East Carolina (59.3%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 67, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 68 [1] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 160.0		 Middle Tennessee (59.3%)
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 53, Tulane (13-9) 61 [8] 58-66 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 140.5		 Tulane (58.5%)
UIC (13-11) 54, Northern Iowa (14-9) 60 [6] 66-63 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 133.8		 Northern Iowa (58.1%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 65, Florida A&M (7-12) 72 [7] 67-72 ✓ MAE: 1.1
O/U: 140.0		 Jacksonville (54.5%)
Richmond (13-10) 70, Elon (13-10) 73 [3] 78-75 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 161.5		 Richmond (52.9%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 64, Bellarmine (9-13) 79 [15] 77-68 ✗ MAE: 12.1
O/U: 147.0		 Chattanooga (52.4%)
James Madison (11-13) 68, Old Dominion (7-17) 77 [9] 69-74 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Old Dominion (52.2%) DOG
Monmouth (11-12) 75, Quinnipiac (15-9) 85 [10] 68-75 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 145.8		 Monmouth (52.1%)
Texas State (14-11) 70, Arkansas State (14-10) 89 [19] 80-76 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 151.5		 Arkansas State (50.7%)
UC Davis (13-9) 78, Seattle U (15-9) 79 [1] 79-70 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 143.8		 Seattle U (50.5%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
55
Final results
55
Correct picks
43
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
55
Avg Confidence
77.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1283
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
39
ML Win Rate
74.4%
ML Profit
$-223
ML ROI
-5.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-107
ROI
-26.8%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
21
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
42.9%
Spread Profit
$-382
Spread ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
49
Avg Confidence
52.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1456
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
38
O/U Wins
15
O/U Losses
23
O/U Win Rate
39.5%
O/U Profit
$-936
O/U ROI
-24.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
2
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$182
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Maryland Eastern Shore 64 @ Wagner 78 Wagner (79.4%) Wagner -4.5 +7.5 +12.0 +14.0 COVERED
Arizona State 77 @ UCLA 90 UCLA (80.0%) UCLA -9.8 +6.1 +15.9 +13.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Monmouth 75, Quinnipiac 85 [10] Monmouth 52.1% N/A N/A LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-107
ROI
-26.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Oregon State 75, Sam Houston 85 [10] Oregon State 63.7% -136 +8.4% LOSS
Youngstown State 77, Robert Morris 80 [3] Robert Morris 60.5% -123 +7.6% WIN
Northern Kentucky 77, Oakland 82 [5] Northern Kentucky 60.6% -141 +6.0% LOSS
The Citadel 78, Charleston 82 [4] Charleston 91.2% -850 +5.4% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$75
ROI
25.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Alabama @ UL Monroe UL Monroe 28.2% +440 +10.5% LOSS
Washington State @ Eastern Washington Washington State 38.1% +275 +12.6% WIN
Vanderbilt @ Memphis Memphis 36.3% +290 +11.9% LOSS