Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-18
All Games Summary
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
23
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
79.3%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (29)
Western Carolina (8-14) 82, Georgia (16-6) 112 [30] 75-108 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 167.5		 Georgia (96.9%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 53, TCU (13-9) 72 [19] 54-78 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET UNDER 147.8		 TCU (96.6%)
Kansas City (4-20) 79, Oklahoma State (16-6) 91 [12] 74-91 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET OVER 161.5		 Oklahoma State (96.2%)
American University (13-11) 83, VCU (17-6) 105 [22] 67-91 ✗ MAE: 15.4
BET OVER 154.0		 VCU (95.8%)
Delaware State (6-15) 51, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 67 [16] 57-71 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 138.5		 Saint Joseph's (95.7%)
Nobel (0-7) 66, Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 97 [31] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 9.6 Cal State Bakersfield (92.9%)
Louisiana (8-16) 54, Southern Miss (12-13) 62 [8] 58-68 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 132.5		 Southern Miss (86.8%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 76, Lindenwood (14-10) 92 [16] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 146.5		 Lindenwood (85.9%)
Lafayette (7-17) 67, Charlotte (13-10) 81 [14] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET OVER 137.2		 Charlotte (82.0%)
North Florida (5-18) 90, Charleston Southern (11-13) 113 [23] 78-96 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET OVER 163.0		 Charleston Southern (81.6%)
Toccoa Falls (0-4) 65, Gardner-Webb (3-21) 105 [40] 78-87 ✗ MAE: 15.8 Gardner-Webb (80.1%)
Georgia State (9-15) 67, Georgia Southern (14-11) 90 [23] 72-86 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 159.8		 Georgia Southern (77.3%)
Radford (13-12) 83, William & Mary (14-8) 96 [13] 85-88 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 170.5		 William & Mary (77.0%)
Manhattan (9-15) 68, Furman (16-8) 75 [7] 74-72 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 154.5		 Furman (70.0%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 57, Northern Arizona (8-15) 65 [8] 63-76 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 148.8		 Northern Arizona (69.8%)
Jackson State (6-16) 77, Hampton (10-13) 84 [7] 75-69 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET OVER 138.0		 Hampton (69.1%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 70, Fairfield (14-10) 84 [14] 67-74 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 142.5		 Central Connecticut (68.9%)
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 72, Eastern Illinois (9-14) 76 [4] 72-63 ✓ MAE: 6.7
O/U: 134.5		 SIU Edwardsville (67.5%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 49, App State (16-9) 67 [18] 60-75 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 137.5		 App State (66.6%)
Drake (12-12) 72, Murray State (17-7) 81 [9] 70-82 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 156.5		 Murray State (64.6%)
Davidson (13-9) 63, Temple (14-8) 68 [5] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 142.2		 Davidson (64.3%)
UT Martin (18-5) 71, Tennessee State (14-8) 78 [7] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 140.8		 Tennessee State (59.7%)
Winthrop (17-8) 88, North Dakota (13-12) 90 [2] 84-77 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET OVER 156.2		 Winthrop (59.5%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 62, Little Rock (9-14) 77 [15] 64-73 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 141.2		 Southern Indiana (59.1%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 78, Long Beach State (8-15) 81 [3] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 141.5		 Long Beach State (58.1%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 68, Illinois State (15-8) 75 [7] 69-75 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 153.8		 Southern Illinois (56.3%)
Indiana State (10-14) 99, Bradley (16-8) 108 [9] 83-79 ✗ MAE: 22.7
BET OVER 149.8		 Bradley (56.1%)
Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 74, Tennessee Tech (9-14) 85 [11] 74-78 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 155.5		 Tennessee Tech (50.8%) DOG
Norfolk State (10-14) 68, Grambling (10-11) 80 [12] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 135.5		 Grambling (50.6%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
23
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
79.3%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
75.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1349
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
21
ML Win Rate
66.7%
ML Profit
$-111
ML ROI
-5.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$246
ROI
123.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$192
ROI
96.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
12
ATS Wins
7
ATS Losses
5
ATS Win Rate
58.3%
Spread Profit
$136
Spread ROI
11.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+5.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
27
Avg Confidence
56.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2254
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
18
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-82
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
North Florida 90 @ Charleston Southern 113 Charleston Southern (81.6%) Charleston Southern -10.0 +8.0 +18.0 +23.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$246
ROI
123.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 74, Tennessee Tech 85 [11] Tennessee Tech 50.8% +136 +10.1% WIN
Norfolk State 68, Grambling 80 [12] Grambling 50.6% +110 +4.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$192
ROI
96.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 74, Tennessee Tech 85 [11] Tennessee Tech 50.8% +136 +10.1% WIN
Coastal Carolina 49, App State 67 [18] App State 66.6% -177 +5.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$136
ROI
136.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 74, Tennessee Tech 85 [11] Tennessee Tech 50.8% +136 +10.1% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$300
ROI
100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Winthrop @ North Dakota North Dakota 40.5% +500 +24.6% WIN
Furman @ Manhattan Manhattan 30.0% +325 +7.6% LOSS
Hampton @ Jackson State Jackson State 30.9% +305 +7.4% LOSS