Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-19
All Games Summary
Total Picks
27
Final results
27
Correct picks
20
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
74.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (27)
Alcorn State (4-17) 56, Baylor (13-9) 113 [57] 60-97 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 160.8		 Baylor (96.8%)
Morgan State (9-13) 50, California (17-6) 97 [47] 57-87 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 151.5		 California (96.8%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 87, UCLA (16-7) 108 [21] 71-97 ✗ MAE: 13.6
BET OVER 162.0		 UCLA (96.8%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 67, BYU #16 (17-5) 85 [18] 60-87 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 146.2		 BYU (96.7%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 65, LSU (14-8) 78 [13] 61-76 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 144.5		 LSU (96.2%)
Coppin State (3-21) 55, Navy (18-6) 88 [33] 57-84 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 145.5		 Navy (95.8%)
Notre Dame (Md) (0-3) 60, Towson (13-11) 107 [47] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 17.1 Towson (95.7%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 49, Florida State (10-12) 96 [47] 52-97 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET UNDER 164.8		 Florida State (95.6%)
Reinhardt (0-2) 49, Samford (11-12) 85 [36] 62-77 ✗ MAE: 10.6 Samford (95.3%)
La Salle (7-16) 72, High Point (21-4) 84 [12] 63-85 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 148.5		 High Point (90.5%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 75, Saint Mary's (20-4) 88 [13] 67-78 ✗ MAE: 9.0
O/U: 145.5		 Saint Mary's (90.4%)
UC San Diego (15-8) 80, San Diego (10-15) 82 [2] 66-86 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 156.5		 UC San Diego (89.7%)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 72, Akron (19-4) 93 [21] 73-88 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET OVER 156.5		 Akron (89.4%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 54, Tarleton State (11-11) 78 [24] 61-80 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 146.5		 Tarleton State (89.1%)
La Sierra (0-3) 53, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 88 [35] 62-76 ✗ MAE: 10.8 Cal State Northridge (81.2%)
Brewton-Parker (0-2) 54, South Carolina State (6-16) 68 [14] 58-64 ✓ MAE: 3.8 South Carolina State (81.0%)
North Alabama (7-14) 57, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 91 [34] 59-75 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 141.8		 Loyola Marymount (80.1%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 67, Drexel (12-11) 75 [8] 60-74 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 137.8		 Drexel (65.9%)
Jackson State (6-16) 72, Norfolk State (10-14) 82 [10] 75-72 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET OVER 139.8		 Norfolk State (61.6%)
Hampton (10-13) 72, Grambling (10-11) 81 [9] 63-70 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 138.5		 Hampton (60.7%)
Providence (10-13) 67, Seton Hall (16-7) 72 [5] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 153.0		 Providence (56.9%)
UC Irvine (15-7) 58, Belmont (21-3) 84 [26] 73-76 ✗ MAE: 14.4
O/U: 150.5		 UC Irvine (55.6%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 63, Sacred Heart (10-14) 85 [22] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 154.2		 Sacred Heart (54.2%) DOG
Washington (12-11) 66, Seattle U (15-9) 70 [4] 72-71 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET UNDER 149.5		 Washington (53.5%)
Wisconsin (16-6) 66, Villanova (17-5) 76 [10] 74-62 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 152.5		 Wisconsin (53.3%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 87, Milwaukee (9-16) 88 [1] 76-83 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 152.0		 Milwaukee (51.8%) DOG
Western Kentucky (12-10) 81, Tulsa (20-3) 82 [1] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 3.0
O/U: 158.2		 Western Kentucky (50.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
27
Final results
27
Correct picks
20
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
74.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
27
Avg Confidence
79.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1222
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
15
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$-73
ML ROI
-4.9%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-50.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
13
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
30.8%
Spread Profit
$-536
Spread ROI
-41.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-21.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
50.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1720
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
18
O/U Wins
8
O/U Losses
10
O/U Win Rate
44.4%
O/U Profit
$-273
O/U ROI
-15.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
North Alabama 57 @ Loyola Marymount 91 Loyola Marymount (80.1%) Loyola Marymount -9.8 +6.2 +16.0 +34.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-50.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Irvine 58, Belmont 84 [26] UC Irvine 55.6% N/A N/A LOSS
Western Kentucky 81, Tulsa 82 [1] Western Kentucky 50.2% +117 +6.1% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hampton 72, Grambling 81 [9] Hampton 60.7% -130 +6.5% LOSS
Western Kentucky 81, Tulsa 82 [1] Western Kentucky 50.2% +117 +6.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$400
ROI
133.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Washington @ Seattle U Seattle U 46.5% +330 +24.3% WIN
Wisconsin @ Villanova Villanova 46.7% +169 +11.1% WIN
North Alabama @ Loyola Marymount North Alabama 19.9% +500 +4.0% LOSS