Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-20
All Games Summary
Total Picks
70
Final results
70
Correct picks
46
Incorrect picks
24
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
COMPLETED GAMES (70)
Chicago State (2-19) 58, Indiana (15-8) 78 [20] 56-84 MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 151.2
Indiana (97.0%)
Bucknell (8-16) 39, Iowa (17-5) 94 [55] 47-81 MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 133.8
Iowa (96.7%)
Oakland (14-11) 70, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 79 [9] 65-85 MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 155.2
Michigan State (96.6%)
Montana (13-10) 54, Louisville #24 (16-6) 94 [40] 65-85 MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 166.5
Louisville (96.4%)
The Citadel (8-15) 56, Richmond (13-10) 80 [24] 63-82 MAE: 4.6
O/U: 146.8
Richmond (95.7%)
South Dakota (13-12) 76, Kansas State (10-12) 106 [30] 72-98 MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 174.8
Kansas State (95.7%)
Blue Mountain (0-2) 60, Lipscomb (15-9) 123 [63] 75-89 MAE: 24.5 Lipscomb (95.5%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 81, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 92 [11] 67-90 MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 151.5
St. Bonaventure (95.1%)
Bethesda University (0-7) 48, Utah Valley (16-6) 109 [61] 70-87 MAE: 22.3 Utah Valley (94.7%)
College Of Biblical Studies (0-9) 51, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 109 [58] 72-88 MAE: 20.8 UT Rio Grande Valley (93.8%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 80, UCF (17-5) 102 [22] 69-89 MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 161.5
UCF (93.5%)
Santa Clara (20-5) 78, Loyola Chicago (6-18) 80 [2] 66-81 MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 151.5
Santa Clara (91.2%)
Lafayette (7-17) 81, Georgia Tech (11-12) 95 [14] 68-81 MAE: 13.6
BET OVER 146.5
Georgia Tech (91.0%)
San Diego State (16-6) 45, Arizona #1 (22-0) 68 [23] 67-85 MAE: 19.2
BET UNDER 154.0
Arizona (90.8%)
Maryland (8-13) 72, Virginia #18 (19-3) 80 [8] 67-78 MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 153.8
Virginia (90.7%)
UNC Wilmington (19-3) 66, Howard (14-9) 67 [1] 53-72 MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 141.5
UNC Wilmington (90.7%)
Elon (13-10) 81, Virginia Tech (16-7) 82 [1] 74-82 MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 158.8
Virginia Tech (90.4%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 78, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 92 [14] 68-92 MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 152.5
St. Thomas-Minnesota (89.7%)
Northeastern (6-15) 83, Syracuse (13-10) 91 [8] 68-85 MAE: 10.4
BET OVER 141.2
Syracuse (89.6%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 67, California Baptist (16-6) 74 [7] 66-79 MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 159.5
California Baptist (89.5%)
San José State (6-16) 65, New Mexico (18-5) 88 [23] 64-86 MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 153.0
New Mexico (88.3%)
Mid-Atlantic Christian (0-5) 55, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 95 [40] 71-81 MAE: 14.9 North Carolina A&T (87.4%)
Southwestern Adventist (0-3) 36, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 93 [57] 66-81 MAE: 21.0 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (87.2%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 77, Utah (9-13) 101 [24] 73-86 MAE: 9.6
O/U: 160.2
Utah (83.1%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 65, Youngstown State (12-12) 74 [9] 67-76 MAE: 2.1
O/U: 142.5
Youngstown State (81.8%)
Southern-New Orleans (0-2) 55, Northwestern State (6-16) 108 [53] 77-90 MAE: 20.0 Northwestern State (81.1%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 53, Harvard (12-9) 81 [28] 57-74 MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 137.0
Harvard (80.9%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 75, Jacksonville State (11-10) 81 [6] 62-73 MAE: 10.3
O/U: 134.8
East Tennessee State (80.5%)
Northern Colorado (13-10) 79, Denver (9-15) 86 [7] 85-90 MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 160.5
Northern Colorado (78.0%)
App State (16-9) 63, Georgia State (9-15) 70 [7] 64-78 MAE: 10.7
BET OVER 136.2
App State (75.8%)
Auburn (14-8) 60, Purdue #12 (18-4) 88 [28] 68-84 MAE: 5.9
O/U: 152.5
Purdue (75.5%)
Binghamton (5-18) 61, Mercyhurst (11-12) 82 [21] 63-79 MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 132.5
Mercyhurst (75.0%)
Colorado State (12-10) 58, Utah State (19-3) 100 [42] 67-85 MAE: 11.8
BET OVER 147.5
Utah State (74.8%)
Pennsylvania (10-10) 69, Rutgers (9-14) 70 [1] 66-75 MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 150.8
Rutgers (74.6%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 70, Robert Morris (15-10) 79 [9] 79-75 MAE: 2.5
BET OVER 145.8
Robert Morris (73.5%)
Marquette (8-15) 63, Creighton (12-11) 84 [21] 65-81 MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 151.5
Creighton (72.5%)
Dayton (15-8) 61, Liberty (19-3) 64 [3] 59-76 MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 143.0
Dayton (71.6%)
Ball State (7-15) 77, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 86 [9] 75-75 MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 147.2
Miami (OH) (69.4%)
Marshall (15-8) 63, Troy (16-8) 70 [7] 67-77 MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 156.2
Troy (69.4%)
Weber State (11-12) 80, Utah Tech (13-11) 82 [2] 76-85 MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 152.5
Weber State (68.0%)
Mercer (15-8) 78, Washington State (11-14) 84 [6] 64-78 MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 151.8
Washington State (67.3%)
Long Island University (14-8) 79, Florida International (11-11) 86 [7] 74-80 MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 161.8
Florida International (67.0%)
Lamar (12-11) 82, Omaha (12-12) 85 [3] 65-78 MAE: 11.6
BET OVER 141.2
Lamar (66.5%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 82, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 91 [9] 72-79 MAE: 10.9
O/U: 152.5
Tennessee State (66.2%) DOG
Fresno State (11-11) 72, UNLV (10-12) 84 [12] 63-78 MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 159.5
UNLV (65.8%)
James Madison (11-13) 92, Georgia Southern (14-11) 96 [4] 78-87 MAE: 11.4
BET OVER 155.2
Georgia Southern (62.5%)
Memphis (10-11) 66, Mississippi State (11-11) 71 [5] 69-74 MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 153.5
Mississippi State (62.5%)
Northwestern (10-13) 58, Butler (13-10) 61 [3] 69-72 MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 154.0
Butler (61.9%)
Colorado (13-10) 68, Stanford (14-9) 77 [9] 72-74 MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 154.0
Colorado (61.8%)
Vermont (14-9) 78, Iona (14-9) 83 [5] 65-79 MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 152.5
Vermont (61.7%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 73, Northern Illinois (7-14) 74 [1] 67-77 MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 149.5
Northern Illinois (61.6%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 59, Kent State (17-6) 69 [10] 76-80 MAE: 13.9
BET UNDER 163.5
Massachusetts (61.3%) DOG
Georgetown (13-10) 77, Xavier (12-11) 80 [3] 73-83 MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 149.8
Georgetown (61.3%)
Wyoming (13-10) 70, Grand Canyon (15-7) 82 [12] 72-73 MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 148.2
Wyoming (60.9%)
Ohio (13-11) 58, Bowling Green (14-9) 68 [10] 67-75 MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 153.0
Ohio (60.2%) DOG
Old Dominion (7-17) 74, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 76 [2] 63-76 MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 147.5
Old Dominion (60.1%)
Arkansas #21 (16-6) 85, Houston #8 (20-2) 94 [9] 81-80 MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 146.8
Houston (58.0%)
South Alabama (16-7) 65, Texas State (14-11) 67 [2] 68-69 MAE: 2.2
O/U: 136.8
Texas State (58.0%)
Ohio State (14-7) 70, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 71 [1] 69-79 MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 157.5
Ohio State (57.8%)
Portland State (15-6) 61, Tulane (13-9) 63 [2] 63-73 MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 145.5
Tulane (57.7%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 62, UT Martin (18-5) 86 [24] 71-73 MAE: 12.9
O/U: 145.5
Tennessee Tech (54.0%) DOG
St. John's #22 (17-5) 66, Kentucky (16-7) 78 [12] 73-77 MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 154.2
Kentucky (53.8%)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 72, Longwood (13-12) 74 [2] 72-68 MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 146.8
Longwood (53.8%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 60, Morehead State (12-11) 64 [4] 62-69 MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 146.2
Southern Indiana (53.4%) DOG
UL Monroe (4-20) 62, Louisiana (8-16) 76 [14] 66-70 MAE: 9.2
O/U: 136.5
UL Monroe (53.2%) DOG
Duke #4 (21-1) 81, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 82 [1] 83-82 MAE: 0.7
BET OVER 152.8
Duke (52.5%) DOG
Rice (10-13) 62, Pepperdine (6-18) 84 [22] 71-78 MAE: 7.6
BET OVER 140.5
Pepperdine (51.1%) DOG
Southern Miss (12-13) 86, Arkansas State (14-10) 93 [7] 78-82 MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 155.2
Southern Miss (51.0%) DOG
Western Michigan (8-14) 71, Buffalo (14-9) 88 [17] 75-75 MAE: 8.2
O/U: 149.0
Western Michigan (50.8%) DOG
Boise State (14-9) 66, Nevada (16-7) 81 [15] 78-67 MAE: 13.1
BET OVER 141.5
Boise State (50.7%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
70
Final results
70
Correct picks
46
Incorrect picks
24
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
70
Avg Confidence
73.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0629
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
51
ML Win Rate
68.6%
ML Profit
$-231
ML ROI
-4.5%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-72
ROI
-12.1%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
6
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$41
ROI
4.6%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$23
ROI
11.3%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
35
ATS Wins
22
ATS Losses
13
ATS Win Rate
62.9%
Spread Profit
$700
Spread ROI
20.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
64
Avg Confidence
56.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2744
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
55
O/U Wins
40
O/U Losses
15
O/U Win Rate
72.7%
O/U Profit
$2136
O/U ROI
38.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+20.3%
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-72
ROI
-12.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. John's 66, Kentucky 78 [12] Kentucky 53.8% +122 +10.7% WIN
Southern Indiana 60, Morehead State 64 [4] Southern Indiana 53.4% +114 +8.6% LOSS
Duke 81, Texas Tech 82 [1] Duke 52.5% +320 +29.8% LOSS
Rice 62, Pepperdine 84 [22] Pepperdine 51.1% +105 +4.3% WIN
Southern Miss 86, Arkansas State 93 [7] Southern Miss 51.0% +127 +8.7% LOSS
Western Michigan 71, Buffalo 88 [17] Western Michigan 50.8% N/A N/A LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
6
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$41
ROI
4.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Duke 81, Texas Tech 82 [1] Duke 52.5% +320 +29.8% LOSS
St. John's 66, Kentucky 78 [12] Kentucky 53.8% +122 +10.7% WIN
Southern Miss 86, Arkansas State 93 [7] Southern Miss 51.0% +127 +8.7% LOSS
Southern Indiana 60, Morehead State 64 [4] Southern Indiana 53.4% +114 +8.6% LOSS
UC Riverside 78, St. Thomas-Minnesota 92 [14] St. Thomas-Minnesota 89.7% -625 +7.0% WIN
Le Moyne 81, St. Bonaventure 92 [11] St. Bonaventure 95.1% -1200 +6.4% WIN
Northwestern 58, Butler 61 [3] Butler 61.9% -137 +6.2% WIN
Marshall 63, Troy 70 [7] Troy 69.4% -191 +6.1% WIN
James Madison 92, Georgia Southern 96 [4] Georgia Southern 62.5% -144 +5.8% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$23
ROI
11.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Duke 81, Texas Tech 82 [1] Duke 52.5% +320 +29.8% LOSS
St. John's 66, Kentucky 78 [12] Kentucky 53.8% +122 +10.7% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$230
ROI
76.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Texas Tech @ Duke Duke 52.5% +320 +29.8% LOSS
Robert Morris @ St. Francis (PA) St. Francis (PA) 26.5% +650 +13.8% LOSS
Liberty @ Dayton Liberty 28.4% +430 +10.4% WIN