Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-21
All Games Summary
Total Picks
56
Final results
55
Correct picks
46
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
1
Accuracy
83.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (1)
Austin Peay (16-6) 0, Kansas City (4-20) 0 [0] 71-74
O/U: 146.5		 Kansas City (61.3%) DOG
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (55)
New Hampshire (8-13) 79, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 93 [14] 65-97 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 157.0		 Saint Louis (97.2%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 79, George Mason (20-3) 86 [7] 65-85 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 146.2		 George Mason (97.1%)
North Dakota (13-12) 55, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 78 [23] 54-84 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 151.5		 Nebraska (97.0%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 52, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 94 [42] 56-93 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 152.5		 Tennessee (97.0%)
Morgan State (9-13) 64, San Francisco (14-11) 94 [30] 58-91 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 145.2		 San Francisco (96.9%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 60, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 91 [31] 57-94 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 149.2		 Iowa State (96.9%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 56, TCU (13-9) 80 [24] 54-82 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 142.8		 TCU (96.9%)
La Salle (7-16) 50, Michigan #2 (20-1) 102 [52] 59-100 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 155.2		 Michigan (96.8%)
Colgate (14-10) 60, Florida #17 (16-6) 90 [30] 63-90 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 156.2		 Florida (96.7%)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 77, Texas A&M (17-5) 118 [41] 66-102 ✗ MAE: 13.8
O/U: 165.5		 Texas A&M (96.7%)
Central Arkansas (13-10) 82, SMU (15-7) 99 [17] 76-100 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 156.2		 SMU (96.7%)
Southern (9-13) 67, Baylor (13-9) 111 [44] 62-95 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 169.5		 Baylor (96.6%)
North Florida (5-18) 67, Miami (17-5) 105 [38] 74-105 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 171.5		 Miami (96.4%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 89, Oklahoma State (16-6) 94 [5] 86-97 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 177.5		 Oklahoma State (95.4%)
UC Santa Cruz (0-2) 63, USC (17-6) 102 [39] 72-87 ✗ MAE: 12.4 USC (95.1%)
UMBC (13-8) 69, South Florida (15-8) 94 [25] 69-87 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 159.5		 South Florida (94.9%)
Dallas (0-2) 55, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 103 [48] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 17.4 Stephen F. Austin (94.3%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 53, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 131 [78] 82-104 ✗ MAE: 27.6 UNC Greensboro (93.5%)
UNC Asheville (11-13) 47, UAB (14-8) 72 [25] 65-84 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET UNDER 151.5		 UAB (91.3%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 57, Wichita State (14-9) 88 [31] 67-85 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 146.8		 Wichita State (90.0%)
Arizona State (12-11) 75, Oregon State (13-12) 78 [3] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 6.8
O/U: 147.5		 Arizona State (89.3%)
Indiana State (10-14) 65, Illinois State (15-8) 85 [20] 68-87 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 152.8		 Illinois State (87.0%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 69, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 72 [3] 60-75 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Notre Dame (84.3%)
VMI (6-18) 90, Radford (13-12) 97 [7] 75-91 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET OVER 158.2		 Radford (83.0%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 81, Alabama (15-7) 92 [11] 76-98 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 182.2		 Alabama (82.6%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 76, Furman (16-8) 84 [8] 75-83 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET OVER 156.0		 Furman (81.9%)
Maine (5-18) 56, Drexel (12-11) 74 [18] 53-72 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 129.8		 Drexel (79.6%)
Columbia (14-7) 56, California (17-6) 74 [18] 69-83 ✗ MAE: 11.2
O/U: 153.0		 California (79.5%)
Nicholls (10-13) 82, Pacific (15-10) 95 [13] 71-75 ✗ MAE: 15.8
BET OVER 139.5		 Pacific (79.1%)
Lehigh (10-14) 62, Monmouth (11-12) 76 [14] 62-78 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 143.2		 Monmouth (78.4%)
Campbell (10-13) 50, Minnesota (11-12) 78 [28] 59-78 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 145.5		 Minnesota (77.9%)
UTEP (8-15) 71, Norfolk State (10-14) 72 [1] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 6.7
O/U: 135.0		 UTEP (76.5%)
Northern Arizona (8-15) 66, Incarnate Word (10-13) 90 [24] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET OVER 141.0		 Incarnate Word (74.6%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 62, NC State (17-6) 76 [14] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 148.2		 NC State (73.6%)
Quinnipiac (15-9) 66, Hofstra (14-9) 74 [8] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 147.8		 Hofstra (73.4%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 69, Bradley (16-8) 73 [4] 69-81 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 152.5		 Bradley (73.2%)
DePaul (12-11) 54, UConn #3 (22-1) 72 [18] 71-66 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 134.5		 UConn (72.3%)
Idaho State (10-13) 83, UC Davis (13-9) 93 [10] 76-85 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 143.8		 Idaho State (69.2%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 51, Marist (15-7) 70 [19] 59-73 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 137.2		 Marist (67.4%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 65, Clemson #20 (19-4) 68 [3] 65-67 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET UNDER 140.5		 Clemson (67.1%)
Sam Houston (16-7) 78, New Mexico State (11-11) 87 [9] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 153.2		 New Mexico State (65.3%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 71, Milwaukee (9-16) 81 [10] 83-76 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 160.5		 Milwaukee (63.9%)
UAlbany (7-16) 75, Cornell (10-10) 83 [8] 87-81 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 167.5		 Cornell (63.5%)
Oregon (8-14) 82, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 91 [9] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 155.0		 Oregon (62.9%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 74, Charleston (15-8) 85 [11] 75-79 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 152.5		 Northern Kentucky (61.9%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 76, Boston University (9-15) 88 [12] 69-78 ✗ MAE: 8.6
O/U: 145.5		 Boston University (60.9%)
Penn State (10-12) 46, Pittsburgh (9-14) 80 [34] 71-72 ✗ MAE: 17.1
BET UNDER 146.8		 Penn State (58.6%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 79, Murray State (17-7) 85 [6] 79-74 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 155.2		 Murray State (58.5%)
Wake Forest (11-11) 67, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 98 [31] 76-76 ✗ MAE: 15.8
BET UNDER 163.8		 Vanderbilt (56.3%)
UIC (13-11) 76, Charlotte (13-10) 88 [12] 70-79 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 137.0		 Charlotte (55.9%)
North Dakota State (19-5) 73, UC Irvine (15-7) 74 [1] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 146.5		 North Dakota State (53.4%)
Evansville (5-18) 65, Drake (12-12) 66 [1] 75-64 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 141.2		 Drake (53.0%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 80, Idaho (13-9) 83 [3] 77-85 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 167.2		 Cal Poly (50.9%) DOG
Presbyterian (11-13) 81, Manhattan (9-15) 87 [6] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET OVER 138.5		 Manhattan (50.5%) DOG
Alabama A&M (12-10) 66, Chattanooga (9-14) 73 [7] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET OVER 138.5		 Chattanooga (50.4%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
56
Final results
55
Correct picks
46
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
1
Accuracy
83.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
55
Avg Confidence
80.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0537
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
35
ML Win Rate
80.0%
ML Profit
$271
ML ROI
7.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-86
ROI
-28.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-219
ROI
-36.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
25
ATS Wins
13
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
52.0%
Spread Profit
$-18
Spread ROI
-0.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
52
Avg Confidence
51.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1333
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
41
O/U Wins
21
O/U Losses
20
O/U Win Rate
51.2%
O/U Profit
$-91
O/U ROI
-2.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-1.2%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
3
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$273
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Maine 56 @ Drexel 74 Drexel (79.6%) Drexel -10.2 +7.8 +18.1 +18.0 COVERED
Northern Arizona 66 @ Incarnate Word 90 Incarnate Word (74.6%) Incarnate Word -6.5 +6.5 +13.0 +24.0 COVERED
Lehigh 62 @ Monmouth 76 Monmouth (78.4%) Monmouth -9.5 +6.3 +15.8 +14.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-86
ROI
-28.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Dakota State 73, UC Irvine 74 [1] North Dakota State 53.4% +120 +9.7% LOSS
Cal Poly 80, Idaho 83 [3] Cal Poly 50.9% +122 +7.8% LOSS
Presbyterian 81, Manhattan 87 [6] Manhattan 50.5% +114 +5.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-219
ROI
-36.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Dakota State 73, UC Irvine 74 [1] North Dakota State 53.4% +120 +9.7% LOSS
Penn State 46, Pittsburgh 80 [34] Penn State 58.6% -105 +9.6% LOSS
Cal Poly 80, Idaho 83 [3] Cal Poly 50.9% +122 +7.8% LOSS
Sam Houston 78, New Mexico State 87 [9] New Mexico State 65.3% -150 +7.6% WIN
Northern Kentucky 74, Charleston 85 [11] Northern Kentucky 61.9% -135 +6.7% LOSS
Presbyterian 81, Manhattan 87 [6] Manhattan 50.5% +114 +5.8% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$305
ROI
101.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UConn @ DePaul DePaul 27.7% +800 +17.1% LOSS
Kennesaw State @ Alabama Kennesaw State 17.4% +1300 +10.6% LOSS
Gonzaga @ Oregon Gonzaga 37.1% +505 +21.4% WIN