Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-22
All Games Summary
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
50
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
94.3%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (53)
American University (13-11) 51, Virginia #18 (19-3) 95 [44] 60-78 ✗ MAE: 12.8
BET UNDER 154.5		 Virginia (97.1%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 81, BYU #16 (17-5) 109 [28] 73-99 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET OVER 168.5		 BYU (97.0%)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 71, Arizona #1 (22-0) 107 [36] 60-103 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET OVER 154.2		 Arizona (97.0%)
East Carolina (7-15) 51, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 99 [48] 58-86 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 145.5		 North Carolina (97.0%)
West Georgia (10-12) 74, Georgia (16-6) 103 [29] 72-104 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET OVER 172.5		 Georgia (96.9%)
Rider (3-18) 79, VCU (17-6) 100 [21] 62-88 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET OVER 146.0		 VCU (96.8%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 90, LSU (14-8) 104 [14] 69-91 ✗ MAE: 16.9
O/U: 161.2		 LSU (96.8%)
Coppin State (3-21) 67, Georgetown (13-10) 97 [30] 64-93 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 150.0		 Georgetown (96.7%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 78, Grand Canyon (15-7) 91 [13] 67-89 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 169.5		 Grand Canyon (96.6%)
Stetson (8-15) 54, Oklahoma (11-12) 107 [53] 55-94 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 147.2		 Oklahoma (96.6%)
NJIT (11-12) 52, Butler (13-10) 101 [49] 56-87 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 148.5		 Butler (96.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 51, West Virginia (14-8) 86 [35] 51-87 ✓ MAE: 0.5
O/U: 138.0		 West Virginia (96.6%)
South Carolina State (6-16) 70, South Carolina (11-12) 95 [25] 60-88 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 149.2		 South Carolina (96.5%)
Utah Tech (13-11) 69, Creighton (12-11) 92 [23] 65-84 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 148.2		 Creighton (96.5%)
Siena (16-7) 60, Indiana (15-8) 81 [21] 61-75 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 145.0		 Indiana (96.4%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 61, Wisconsin (16-6) 88 [27] 62-85 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 154.0		 Wisconsin (96.3%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 71, Texas (14-9) 94 [23] 60-88 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 138.5		 Texas (96.2%)
Stonehill (9-14) 48, Syracuse (13-10) 77 [29] 55-70 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 140.2		 Syracuse (95.9%)
Dallas Christian (0-3) 37, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 90 [53] 59-74 ✗ MAE: 18.7 Louisiana Tech (95.8%)
Whittier (0-2) 59, San Diego State (16-6) 121 [62] 72-86 ✗ MAE: 23.9 San Diego State (95.6%)
Canisius (8-16) 59, Duquesne (13-10) 103 [44] 62-86 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 143.2		 Duquesne (95.4%)
Milligan (0-2) 81, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 135 [54] 84-100 ✗ MAE: 19.1 Miami (OH) (95.4%)
Alabama State (7-15) 67, Memphis (10-11) 88 [21] 59-86 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 150.8		 Memphis (95.1%)
St. Mary's (MD) (0-2) 40, George Washington (13-10) 97 [57] 66-82 ✗ MAE: 20.5 George Washington (95.1%)
San Diego (10-15) 56, Washington (12-11) 86 [30] 66-85 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 159.5		 Washington (94.8%)
Siena Heights (0-2) 66, Bowling Green (14-9) 125 [59] 77-93 ✗ MAE: 21.8 Bowling Green (94.8%)
Bryant (7-15) 47, High Point (21-4) 93 [46] 60-86 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 154.8		 High Point (94.7%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 63, Florida State (10-12) 87 [24] 62-86 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 160.5		 Florida State (94.5%)
East-West University (0-3) 56, Eastern Illinois (9-14) 110 [54] 69-84 ✗ MAE: 19.3 Eastern Illinois (94.4%)
Lincoln University (CA) (0-5) 64, Weber State (11-12) 103 [39] 82-97 ✗ MAE: 12.2 Weber State (94.0%)
Denver (9-15) 85, Tulsa (20-3) 90 [5] 78-95 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 161.2		 Tulsa (91.8%)
Davidson (13-9) 61, Kansas #11 (17-5) 90 [29] 59-81 ✓ MAE: 5.7
O/U: 139.0		 Kansas (91.2%)
New Haven (10-12) 47, Fordham (12-11) 65 [18] 54-72 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 127.2		 Fordham (89.5%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 61, Boston College (9-13) 72 [11] 58-70 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 141.8		 Boston College (89.1%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 47, Towson (13-11) 72 [25] 62-73 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 145.5		 Towson (88.7%)
Trinity Baptist (0-3) 70, Florida International (11-11) 121 [51] 80-96 ✗ MAE: 17.6 Florida International (87.0%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 58, Saint Mary's (20-4) 63 [5] 58-65 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 131.5		 Saint Mary's (83.3%)
Northeastern (6-15) 77, Rhode Island (13-9) 85 [8] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 145.0		 Rhode Island (82.4%)
Defiance (0-2) 57, Western Michigan (8-14) 94 [37] 69-83 ✗ MAE: 11.8 Western Michigan (81.0%)
City College NY (0-2) 58, Fairfield (14-10) 121 [63] 75-94 ✗ MAE: 22.0 Fairfield (81.0%)
Manor College (0-2) 57, Wagner (7-13) 74 [17] 57-68 ✓ MAE: 2.9 Wagner (81.0%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 88, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 100 [12] 74-89 ✗ MAE: 12.9
O/U: 164.2		 Cal State Northridge (81.0%)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 64, Wright State (15-9) 70 [6] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 142.5		 Wright State (80.7%)
Portland (11-14) 61, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 79 [18] 64-79 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 147.5		 UC Santa Barbara (80.2%)
Missouri (15-7) 48, Illinois #5 (20-3) 91 [43] 64-84 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET UNDER 154.5		 Illinois (79.2%)
Princeton (8-14) 61, Temple (14-8) 65 [4] 61-69 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 139.8		 Temple (78.3%)
Saint Joseph's (15-8) 62, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 68 [6] 60-76 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 143.0		 Saint Joseph's (78.1%)
UTSA (4-18) 68, Seattle U (15-9) 71 [3] 77-70 ✓ MAE: 4.0
O/U: 148.5		 Seattle U (71.8%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 70, UC Irvine (15-7) 89 [19] 71-67 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET OVER 135.5		 UC Irvine (68.5%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 61, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 66 [5] 72-65 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 137.2		 SIU Edwardsville (61.6%)
North Dakota State (19-5) 66, UTEP (8-15) 76 [10] 76-67 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 143.0		 North Dakota State (54.8%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 68, Abilene Christian (10-11) 75 [7] 75-72 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET OVER 138.5		 Abilene Christian (53.0%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 57, UT Arlington (14-7) 69 [12] 65-68 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 138.0		 Oral Roberts (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
50
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
94.3%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
53
Avg Confidence
89.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0811
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
19
ML Win Rate
89.5%
ML Profit
$197
ML ROI
10.3%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-17
ROI
-4.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
10
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
6
ATS Win Rate
40.0%
Spread Profit
$-236
Spread ROI
-23.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
42
Avg Confidence
44.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1546
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
38
O/U Wins
16
O/U Losses
22
O/U Win Rate
42.1%
O/U Profit
$-746
O/U ROI
-19.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-10.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$182
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Missouri 48 @ Illinois #5 91 Illinois (79.2%) Illinois -9.5 +10.1 +19.6 +43.0 COVERED
Coastal Carolina 68 @ Saint Joseph's 62 Saint Joseph's (78.1%) Saint Joseph's -6.8 +9.2 +15.9 -6.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Oral Roberts 57, UT Arlington 69 [12] Oral Roberts 50.1% +119 +6.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-17
ROI
-4.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Sacred Heart 47, Towson 72 [25] Towson 88.7% -525 +8.7% WIN
Eastern Michigan 64, Wright State 70 [6] Wright State 80.7% -300 +8.3% WIN
Oral Roberts 57, UT Arlington 69 [12] Oral Roberts 50.1% +119 +6.4% LOSS
Missouri 48, Illinois 91 [43] Illinois 79.2% -325 +5.8% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Irvine @ Norfolk State Norfolk State 31.5% +440 +13.7% LOSS
Coppin State @ Georgetown Coppin State 3.3% +4000 +0.9% LOSS
Princeton @ Temple Princeton 21.7% +475 +5.1% LOSS