Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-23
All Games Summary
Total Picks
11
Final results
11
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
90.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (11)
UC Riverside (8-15) 65, UCLA (16-7) 97 [32] 68-95 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET OVER 148.8		 UCLA (97.1%)
Harvard (12-9) 59, St. John's #22 (17-5) 85 [26] 58-80 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 146.5		 St. John's (97.1%)
Bellarmine (9-13) 85, Kentucky (16-7) 99 [14] 69-94 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 154.5		 Kentucky (97.0%)
Grambling (10-11) 63, Ohio State (14-7) 89 [26] 61-80 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 153.5		 Ohio State (96.9%)
Morgan State (9-13) 56, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 83 [27] 62-83 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 144.2		 Loyola Marymount (96.0%)
Binghamton (5-18) 85, Army (10-14) 95 [10] 71-87 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 140.0		 Army (81.1%)
Green Bay (13-12) 79, Campbell (10-13) 102 [23] 71-84 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET OVER 144.5		 Campbell (69.2%)
Idaho (13-9) 63, Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 64 [1] 72-73 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 150.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (59.9%) DOG
Seton Hall (16-7) 56, Villanova (17-5) 64 [8] 59-67 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 135.5		 Seton Hall (59.8%)
Lindenwood (14-10) 65, Missouri State (13-9) 70 [5] 64-73 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET UNDER 144.8		 Missouri State (58.7%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 80, UCF (17-5) 85 [5] 77-91 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 162.5		 UCF (55.3%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
11
Final results
11
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
90.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
11
Avg Confidence
77.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1369
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
7
ML Win Rate
100.0%
ML Profit
$574
ML ROI
82.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
5
ATS Wins
3
ATS Losses
2
ATS Win Rate
60.0%
Spread Profit
$73
Spread ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
11
Avg Confidence
48.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3960
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
11
O/U Wins
10
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
90.9%
O/U Profit
$809
O/U ROI
73.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+38.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Atlantic 80, UCF 85 [5] UCF 55.3% +320 +32.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Atlantic 80, UCF 85 [5] UCF 55.3% +320 +32.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$320
ROI
320.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Atlantic 80, UCF 85 [5] UCF 55.3% +320 +32.5% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$268
ROI
89.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Atlantic @ UCF UCF 55.3% +320 +32.5% WIN
Binghamton @ Army Binghamton 18.9% +575 +4.8% LOSS
Green Bay @ Campbell Campbell 69.2% -210 +4.2% WIN