Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-27
All Games Summary
Total Picks
2
Final results
2
Correct picks
2
Incorrect picks
0
Pending
0
Accuracy
100.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (2)
Cleary University (0-3) 49, Duquesne (13-10) 99 [50] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 18.8 Duquesne (95.4%)
Cal State Northridge (13-10) 80, Stanford (14-9) 88 [8] 74-85 ✓ MAE: 4.5
O/U: 160.5		 Stanford (92.3%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
2
Final results
2
Correct picks
2
Incorrect picks
0
Pending
0
Accuracy
100.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
2
Avg Confidence
94.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0600
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
1
ML Win Rate
100.0%
ML Profit
$5
ML ROI
4.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
1
Avg Confidence
32.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.6709
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No positive EV moneyline bets identified today.