Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-28
All Games Summary
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
83.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (31)
UL Monroe (4-20) 85, Kansas State (10-12) 94 [9] 76-99 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 169.2		 Kansas State (96.7%)
Omaha (12-12) 57, Oregon (8-14) 80 [23] 59-86 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 151.2		 Oregon (96.5%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 63, SMU (15-7) 110 [47] 73-102 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 170.5		 SMU (96.0%)
Stanton (0-2) 62, UC San Diego (15-8) 85 [23] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 6.8 UC San Diego (95.5%)
Worcester State (0-2) 59, Bryant (7-15) 95 [36] 64-73 ✗ MAE: 13.4 Bryant (95.5%)
Union (KY) (0-2) 54, Wofford (16-8) 88 [34] 60-73 ✗ MAE: 10.1 Wofford (95.3%)
Pfeiffer (0-2) 64, High Point (21-4) 123 [59] 77-95 ✗ MAE: 20.3 High Point (95.2%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 65, Georgia Tech (11-12) 89 [24] 67-86 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET OVER 146.8		 Georgia Tech (95.0%)
Winthrop (17-8) 57, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 87 [30] 66-93 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 164.0		 Texas Tech (95.0%)
Fisk (0-4) 59, Austin Peay (16-6) 110 [51] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 19.0 Austin Peay (94.7%)
Averett (0-2) 49, Longwood (13-12) 92 [43] 68-83 ✗ MAE: 13.8 Longwood (94.1%)
Mount Marty College (0-2) 61, South Dakota (13-12) 85 [24] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 8.2 South Dakota (94.0%)
College Of Biblical Studies (0-9) 57, Sam Houston (16-7) 117 [60] 73-89 ✗ MAE: 21.8 Sam Houston (93.4%)
Pennsylvania (10-10) 79, George Mason (20-3) 83 [4] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 145.5		 George Mason (91.3%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 64, Boston College (9-13) 72 [8] 62-76 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 147.0		 Boston College (89.9%)
Colorado (13-10) 81, Northern Colorado (13-10) 86 [5] 71-89 ✗ MAE: 11.7
O/U: 158.8		 Colorado (89.8%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 58, Maryland (8-13) 73 [15] 63-79 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 154.5		 Maryland (89.7%)
Fort Lauderdale (0-3) 43, Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 84 [41] 74-82 ✗ MAE: 16.9 Florida Gulf Coast (88.2%)
Dakota State (0-3) 56, North Dakota (13-12) 88 [32] 65-74 ✗ MAE: 11.4 North Dakota (85.5%)
Columbia College (SC) (0-2) 72, Georgia State (9-15) 110 [38] 74-85 ✗ MAE: 13.5 Georgia State (80.9%)
Richmond (13-10) 72, Charleston Southern (11-13) 77 [5] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 159.5		 Richmond (80.3%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 56, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 96 [40] 89-72 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET OVER 152.2		 Gonzaga (71.3%)
Seattle U (15-9) 59, San Francisco (14-11) 67 [8] 66-68 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 145.5		 Seattle U (71.1%)
North Florida (5-18) 82, Columbia (14-7) 90 [8] 81-80 ✓ MAE: 5.5
O/U: 162.5		 Columbia (66.7%)
Colgate (14-10) 69, Harvard (12-9) 78 [9] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 9.2
O/U: 141.2		 Colgate (63.3%)
Oregon State (13-12) 64, Santa Clara (20-5) 102 [38] 76-77 ✗ MAE: 19.6
BET OVER 150.5		 Santa Clara (59.4%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 54, Louisiana (8-16) 63 [9] 62-61 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 126.5		 Louisiana (59.3%)
Florida International (11-11) 94, Liberty (19-3) 97 [3] 86-74 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET OVER 152.5		 Liberty (56.1%)
Portland (11-14) 62, Washington State (11-14) 67 [5] 68-68 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 152.8		 Washington State (53.2%)
Pacific (15-10) 54, San Diego (10-15) 66 [12] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 151.0		 San Diego (50.2%) DOG
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 73, Saint Mary's (20-4) 78 [5] 68-66 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 143.5		 Loyola Marymount (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
83.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
31
Avg Confidence
83.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1192
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
16
ML Win Rate
68.8%
ML Profit
$-313
ML ROI
-19.6%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$223
ROI
111.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
9
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
5
ATS Win Rate
44.4%
Spread Profit
$-136
Spread ROI
-15.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
20
Avg Confidence
53.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1531
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
19
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
13
O/U Win Rate
31.6%
O/U Profit
$-755
O/U ROI
-39.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-20.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$136
ROI
136.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Pacific 54, San Diego 66 [12] San Diego 50.2% +136 +9.4% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$223
ROI
111.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Pacific 54, San Diego 66 [12] San Diego 50.2% +136 +9.4% WIN
Norfolk State 54, Louisiana 63 [9] Louisiana 59.3% -115 +8.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$450
ROI
150.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine Pepperdine 28.7% +1600 +23.1% LOSS
Columbia @ North Florida North Florida 33.3% +700 +21.4% LOSS
Charleston Southern @ Richmond Charleston Southern 19.7% +650 +7.0% WIN