Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-29
All Games Summary
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
50
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (61)
Alcorn State (4-17) 43, Ole Miss (11-11) 79 [36] 50-87 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 148.2		 Ole Miss (97.3%)
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 60, Houston #8 (20-2) 69 [9] 58-76 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 137.5		 Houston (97.2%)
James Madison (11-13) 74, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 103 [29] 76-96 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET OVER 159.8		 Arkansas (97.1%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 61, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 89 [28] 55-92 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 145.2		 Iowa State (96.9%)
Long Island University (14-8) 74, Georgia (16-6) 89 [15] 71-94 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 179.0		 Georgia (96.9%)
Cornell (10-10) 97, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 114 [17] 79-103 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 160.2		 Michigan State (96.8%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 72, Florida #17 (16-6) 94 [22] 56-93 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 160.0		 Florida (96.8%)
Queens University (12-11) 65, Auburn (14-8) 106 [41] 73-103 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 171.5		 Auburn (96.8%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 82, Texas A&M (17-5) 111 [29] 76-109 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 176.2		 Texas A&M (96.7%)
Jackson State (6-16) 64, TCU (13-9) 115 [51] 57-92 ✗ MAE: 14.9
BET OVER 143.2		 TCU (96.7%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 69, Oklahoma (11-12) 93 [24] 60-99 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 153.8		 Oklahoma (96.7%)
Southern (9-13) 55, Illinois #5 (20-3) 90 [35] 55-95 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 163.8		 Illinois (96.6%)
Kent State (17-6) 60, Purdue #12 (18-4) 101 [41] 61-94 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 155.2		 Purdue (96.6%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 71, Arizona #1 (22-0) 99 [28] 69-98 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET OVER 158.2		 Arizona (96.4%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 62, LSU (14-8) 90 [28] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 154.5		 LSU (96.4%)
McNeese (18-5) 71, Michigan #2 (20-1) 112 [41] 65-97 ✗ MAE: 10.3
O/U: 160.8		 Michigan (96.3%)
New Haven (10-12) 53, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 96 [43] 55-90 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 145.2		 Vanderbilt (96.3%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 62, Iowa (17-5) 90 [28] 60-85 ✓ MAE: 3.1
O/U: 145.0		 Iowa (96.1%)
North Carolina Central (8-12) 67, Penn State (10-12) 90 [23] 62-84 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 150.0		 Penn State (96.1%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 43, Minnesota (11-12) 60 [17] 49-67 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 139.5		 Minnesota (95.9%)
Arlington Baptist (0-3) 61, Baylor (13-9) 124 [63] 80-98 ✗ MAE: 22.7 Baylor (95.3%)
Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 77, Oklahoma State (16-6) 103 [26] 75-97 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 164.2		 Oklahoma State (94.9%)
Delaware State (6-15) 50, Rutgers (9-14) 65 [15] 53-66 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 135.5		 Rutgers (94.9%)
Alabama State (7-15) 56, Mississippi State (11-11) 94 [38] 62-90 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 154.8		 Mississippi State (94.7%)
La Sierra (0-3) 47, UNLV (10-12) 89 [42] 57-70 ✗ MAE: 14.4 UNLV (94.6%)
Illinois Tech (0-2) 64, UIC (13-11) 102 [38] 76-87 ✗ MAE: 13.2 UIC (94.4%)
Lipscomb (15-9) 62, Cincinnati (11-11) 89 [27] 64-81 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 151.5		 Cincinnati (89.4%)
Utah (9-13) 65, Washington (12-11) 74 [9] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 156.5		 Washington (86.2%)
Evansville (5-18) 68, Bradley (16-8) 76 [8] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET UNDER 143.0		 Bradley (81.0%)
Yale (16-4) 78, Alabama (15-7) 102 [24] 78-100 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET OVER 172.0		 Alabama (78.1%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 68, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 73 [5] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET OVER 146.2		 Youngstown State (77.3%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 48, Northern Iowa (14-9) 58 [10] 53-71 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 131.5		 Northern Iowa (76.9%)
Campbell (10-13) 72, Hofstra (14-9) 86 [14] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 149.2		 Hofstra (75.9%)
Drexel (12-11) 63, Charleston (15-8) 72 [9] 60-73 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 142.5		 Charleston (75.6%)
California Baptist (16-6) 66, Utah Valley (16-6) 73 [7] 66-74 ✓ MAE: 0.7
BET UNDER 148.0		 Utah Valley (74.6%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 66, Utah Tech (13-11) 80 [14] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 149.5		 Utah Tech (74.3%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 81, Murray State (17-7) 84 [3] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 165.8		 Murray State (73.6%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 59, Hampton (10-13) 62 [3] 62-69 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 140.5		 Hampton (70.6%)
Towson (13-11) 70, William & Mary (14-8) 84 [14] 69-77 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 157.5		 William & Mary (69.8%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 69, New Orleans (11-13) 85 [16] 68-79 ✗ MAE: 13.6
BET UNDER 152.8		 UT Rio Grande Valley (69.2%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 78, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 87 [9] 73-70 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 146.5		 UNC Wilmington (67.1%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 71, Nicholls (10-13) 76 [5] 68-76 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 138.0		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (66.5%)
Belmont (21-3) 80, Indiana State (10-14) 81 [1] 84-80 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET OVER 159.8		 Belmont (66.2%)
Northeastern (6-15) 91, Elon (13-10) 103 [12] 79-90 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 153.2		 Elon (65.3%)
Marist (15-7) 58, Quinnipiac (15-9) 64 [6] 63-67 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 145.2		 Quinnipiac (64.2%)
Oakland (14-11) 73, Wright State (15-9) 88 [15] 72-82 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 159.5		 Wright State (62.9%)
UTEP (8-15) 63, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 75 [12] 62-72 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 130.2		 Louisiana Tech (62.4%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 86, Cleveland State (10-14) 99 [13] 78-87 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 172.5		 Cleveland State (62.4%)
Fairfield (14-10) 66, Saint Peter's (12-8) 70 [4] 63-71 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 140.5		 Fairfield (60.0%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 77, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 79 [2] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 149.8		 Robert Morris (59.1%) DOG
UT Arlington (14-7) 63, Tarleton State (11-11) 69 [6] 65-71 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 136.8		 UT Arlington (58.7%)
Coppin State (3-21) 59, UMBC (13-8) 93 [34] 77-73 ✗ MAE: 15.1
O/U: 148.5		 Coppin State (58.6%) DOG
East Texas A&M (8-15) 48, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 75 [27] 69-71 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 146.8		 Stephen F. Austin (57.1%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 55, Milwaukee (9-16) 77 [22] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 156.5		 Milwaukee (57.0%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 72, Merrimack (14-9) 80 [8] 65-68 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 144.5		 Sacred Heart (56.4%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 61, Lamar (12-11) 76 [15] 69-68 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 138.8		 Lamar (52.2%)
Iona (14-9) 59, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 66 [7] 74-64 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 153.5		 Iona (51.7%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 67, Jacksonville State (11-10) 78 [11] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 142.5		 Jacksonville State (51.6%) DOG
Delaware (6-16) 43, Missouri State (13-9) 61 [18] 61-65 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 131.8		 Delaware (51.6%) DOG
Rider (3-18) 71, Manhattan (9-15) 74 [3] 76-67 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 147.5		 Manhattan (50.8%)
Drake (12-12) 56, Illinois State (15-8) 73 [17] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 146.5		 Illinois State (50.6%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
50
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
61
Avg Confidence
79.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0904
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
36
ML Win Rate
80.6%
ML Profit
$532
ML ROI
14.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$135
ROI
67.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$176
ROI
44.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$135
ROI
135.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
31
ATS Wins
22
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
71.0%
Spread Profit
$1100
Spread ROI
35.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+18.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
58
Avg Confidence
56.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1635
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
51
O/U Wins
42
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
82.4%
O/U Profit
$2918
O/U ROI
57.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+30.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Valparaiso 48 @ Northern Iowa 58 Northern Iowa (76.9%) Northern Iowa -9.2 +8.6 +17.9 +10.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$135
ROI
67.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Kentucky 67, Jacksonville State 78 [11] Jacksonville State 51.6% +135 +10.7% WIN
Delaware 43, Missouri State 61 [18] Delaware 51.6% N/A N/A LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$176
ROI
44.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Kentucky 67, Jacksonville State 78 [11] Jacksonville State 51.6% +135 +10.7% WIN
IU Indianapolis 86, Cleveland State 99 [13] Cleveland State 62.4% -136 +7.0% WIN
Oakland 73, Wright State 88 [15] Wright State 62.9% -147 +5.6% WIN
Robert Morris 77, Northern Kentucky 79 [2] Robert Morris 59.1% -127 +5.3% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$135
ROI
135.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Kentucky 67, Jacksonville State 78 [11] Jacksonville State 51.6% +135 +10.7% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Yale @ Alabama Yale 21.9% +900 +12.4% LOSS
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M East Texas A&M 42.9% +207 +11.7% LOSS
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T North Carolina A&T 32.9% +300 +8.9% LOSS