Test Predictions Recap
2025-12-30
All Games Summary
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
27
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (36)
South Carolina State (6-16) 54, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 105 [51] 54-93 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 147.8		 Tennessee (96.9%)
New Hampshire (8-13) 55, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 86 [31] 55-86 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 145.5		 Nebraska (96.9%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 60, Wisconsin (16-6) 80 [20] 65-81 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 157.5		 Wisconsin (96.1%)
Howard (14-9) 60, Northwestern (10-13) 80 [20] 59-73 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 148.5		 Northwestern (96.1%)
UAlbany (7-16) 67, South Carolina (11-12) 96 [29] 63-84 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 148.5		 South Carolina (94.9%)
Fisk (0-4) 58, Alabama A&M (12-10) 90 [32] 67-79 ✗ MAE: 10.3 Alabama A&M (94.2%)
Lincoln University (CA) (0-5) 66, Long Beach State (8-15) 113 [47] 81-95 ✗ MAE: 16.4 Long Beach State (93.0%)
Florida State (10-12) 66, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 79 [13] 65-83 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 166.8		 North Carolina (86.8%)
Huston-Tillotson (0-2) 56, Texas Southern (6-14) 80 [24] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 7.4 Texas Southern (81.0%)
Penn State (Brandywine) (0-2) 55, Morgan State (9-13) 92 [37] 61-70 ✗ MAE: 13.7 Morgan State (80.7%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 79, Toledo (12-11) 84 [5] 75-84 ✓ MAE: 2.0
O/U: 160.5		 Toledo (78.3%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 69, Miami (17-5) 76 [7] 74-81 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET OVER 144.5		 Miami (77.4%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 70, Incarnate Word (10-13) 79 [9] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 134.5		 Incarnate Word (72.4%)
Air Force (3-19) 56, Wyoming (13-10) 68 [12] 71-63 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 143.0		 Wyoming (72.3%)
Fresno State (11-11) 63, Utah State (19-3) 72 [9] 76-71 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 155.0		 Utah State (72.3%)
The Citadel (8-15) 49, East Tennessee State (17-7) 74 [25] 68-65 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 139.5		 East Tennessee State (71.1%)
Portland (11-14) 85, Santa Clara (20-5) 92 [7] 80-77 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 157.0		 Santa Clara (69.8%)
Davidson (13-9) 83, Duquesne (13-10) 89 [6] 67-78 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 151.0		 Davidson (69.1%)
San José State (6-16) 68, San Diego State (16-6) 81 [13] 77-74 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 142.2		 San Diego State (67.9%)
Pacific (15-10) 71, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 80 [9] 65-75 ✓ MAE: 5.5
O/U: 139.8		 Loyola Marymount (67.8%)
Stanford (14-9) 40, Notre Dame (11-12) 47 [7] 60-64 ✗ MAE: 18.8
BET UNDER 142.8		 Stanford (67.2%)
Washington State (11-14) 55, Seattle U (15-9) 69 [14] 60-66 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 145.8		 Seattle U (66.7%)
California (17-6) 70, Louisville #24 (16-6) 90 [20] 74-72 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 161.2		 Louisville (64.3%)
Colorado State (12-10) 62, Nevada (16-7) 75 [13] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 141.0		 Colorado State (64.0%)
Butler (13-10) 85, Creighton (12-11) 89 [4] 73-86 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 156.8		 Creighton (63.4%)
Bowling Green (14-9) 83, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 93 [10] 82-83 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 150.8		 Bowling Green (62.4%)
New Mexico (18-5) 53, Boise State (14-9) 62 [9] 71-72 ✗ MAE: 13.9
BET UNDER 147.0		 Boise State (61.7%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 64, Ohio (13-11) 80 [16] 76-74 ✓ MAE: 7.4
O/U: 150.5		 Ohio (61.6%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 76, Tennessee State (14-8) 88 [12] 79-79 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 154.8		 Tennessee Tech (57.9%)
San Francisco (14-11) 62, Oregon State (13-12) 70 [8] 70-67 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 144.8		 San Francisco (57.0%)
San Diego (10-15) 93, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 99 [6] 91-74 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET OVER 160.5		 Gonzaga (56.1%)
Charlotte (13-10) 73, Temple (14-8) 76 [3] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET OVER 138.5		 Charlotte (54.4%)
Vermont (14-9) 69, Princeton (8-14) 75 [6] 70-63 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 137.2		 Vermont (53.9%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 45, Saint Mary's (20-4) 72 [27] 72-63 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 141.5		 Saint Mary's (53.7%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 74, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 80 [6] 73-81 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET OVER 147.5		 Eastern Michigan (52.3%) DOG
Marquette (8-15) 73, Seton Hall (16-7) 79 [6] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 145.2		 Marquette (51.9%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
27
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
75.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2042
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
25
ML Win Rate
68.0%
ML Profit
$-339
ML ROI
-13.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
10
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
8
ATS Win Rate
20.0%
Spread Profit
$-618
Spread ROI
-61.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-32.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
32
Avg Confidence
57.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2206
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
23
O/U Wins
11
O/U Losses
12
O/U Win Rate
47.8%
O/U Profit
$-200
O/U ROI
-8.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-4.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marquette 73, Seton Hall 79 [6] Marquette 51.9% +120 +8.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marquette 73, Seton Hall 79 [6] Marquette 51.9% +120 +8.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Utah State @ Fresno State Fresno State 27.7% +700 +15.8% LOSS
Santa Clara @ Portland Portland 30.2% +545 +15.3% LOSS
Wyoming @ Air Force Air Force 27.7% +600 +14.0% LOSS