Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-02
All Games Summary
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (32)
Seattle U (15-9) 72, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 80 [8] 65-82 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 155.2		 Gonzaga (94.4%)
USC (17-6) 66, Michigan #2 (20-1) 96 [30] 66-96 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 173.5		 Michigan (94.3%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 63, Santa Clara (20-5) 82 [19] 61-83 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET UNDER 151.0		 Santa Clara (94.1%)
Portland (11-14) 57, Saint Mary's (20-4) 78 [21] 57-82 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 145.5		 Saint Mary's (94.0%)
West Virginia (14-8) 59, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 80 [21] 55-79 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 142.8		 Iowa State (91.4%)
Lamar (12-11) 70, McNeese (18-5) 82 [12] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 145.2		 McNeese (90.9%)
San Diego (10-15) 64, San Francisco (14-11) 74 [10] 65-80 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 151.0		 San Francisco (81.1%)
Oregon State (13-12) 53, Pacific (15-10) 84 [31] 61-73 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 137.5		 Pacific (69.3%)
Rutgers (9-14) 73, Ohio State (14-7) 80 [7] 76-71 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET UNDER 151.8		 Ohio State (68.7%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 67, Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 74 [7] 61-69 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 133.2		 Mercyhurst (68.4%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 73, Liberty (19-3) 81 [8] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 158.2		 Liberty (68.2%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 58, Le Moyne (11-12) 84 [26] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 151.5		 Le Moyne (63.1%)
Quinnipiac (15-9) 79, Manhattan (9-15) 80 [1] 75-75 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 159.0		 Quinnipiac (63.0%)
Louisville #24 (16-6) 76, Stanford (14-9) 80 [4] 77-71 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 157.5		 Louisville (62.6%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 74, Florida International (11-11) 89 [15] 74-83 ✓ MAE: 3.3
O/U: 155.5		 Florida International (62.6%) DOG
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 51, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 88 [37] 58-72 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 134.2		 Middle Tennessee (62.5%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 71, California (17-6) 72 [1] 62-66 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 138.0		 California (62.4%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 76, Washington State (11-14) 78 [2] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 141.8		 Washington State (62.3%)
Sam Houston (16-7) 91, Western Kentucky (12-10) 102 [11] 78-88 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 167.8		 Western Kentucky (61.6%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 65, Merrimack (14-9) 75 [10] 57-69 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 141.2		 Merrimack (61.0%)
UTEP (8-15) 55, Missouri State (13-9) 79 [24] 60-74 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 131.5		 Missouri State (60.7%)
Michigan State #10 (19-4) 56, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 58 [2] 63-70 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 146.0		 Nebraska (59.7%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 78, Long Island University (14-8) 84 [6] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 146.2		 Long Island University (59.4%)
Fairfield (14-10) 81, Canisius (8-16) 85 [4] 77-74 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 140.5		 Fairfield (59.0%)
Stonehill (9-14) 55, New Haven (10-12) 70 [15] 59-68 ✗ MAE: 12.0
O/U: 128.5		 Stonehill (55.3%)
Delaware (6-16) 64, Jacksonville State (11-10) 67 [3] 69-60 ✓ MAE: 3.0
O/U: 126.5		 Jacksonville State (53.7%)
Chicago State (2-19) 72, Wagner (7-13) 79 [7] 73-65 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 145.2		 Chicago State (53.0%) DOG
Siena (16-7) 72, Iona (14-9) 75 [3] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 149.5		 Iona (52.7%) DOG
Marist (15-7) 59, Saint Peter's (12-8) 69 [10] 58-65 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 133.2		 Saint Peter's (51.3%) DOG
Maryland (8-13) 54, Oregon (8-14) 64 [10] 68-67 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 146.8		 Maryland (50.8%) DOG
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 77, Robert Morris (15-10) 85 [8] 78-76 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET OVER 148.2		 Robert Morris (50.5%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 61, Niagara (6-17) 64 [3] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 140.5		 Niagara (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
32
Final results
32
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
78.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
32
Avg Confidence
69.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1948
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
26
ML Win Rate
73.1%
ML Profit
$332
ML ROI
12.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
5
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$380
ROI
63.3%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
16
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
7
ATS Win Rate
56.2%
Spread Profit
$118
Spread ROI
7.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+3.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
32
Avg Confidence
57.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2157
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
26
O/U Wins
11
O/U Losses
15
O/U Win Rate
42.3%
O/U Profit
$-500
O/U ROI
-19.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-10.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$162
ROI
54.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marist 59, Saint Peter's 69 [10] Saint Peter's 51.3% +115 +6.5% WIN
Maryland 54, Oregon 64 [10] Maryland 50.8% +120 +7.1% LOSS
Sacred Heart 61, Niagara 64 [3] Niagara 50.3% +147 +11.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
5
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
83.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$380
ROI
63.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Sacred Heart 61, Niagara 64 [3] Niagara 50.3% +147 +11.5% WIN
Loyola Marymount 76, Washington State 78 [2] Washington State 62.3% -125 +9.1% WIN
Oregon State 53, Pacific 84 [31] Pacific 69.3% -175 +7.9% WIN
Maryland 54, Oregon 64 [10] Maryland 50.8% +120 +7.1% LOSS
Marist 59, Saint Peter's 69 [10] Saint Peter's 51.3% +115 +6.5% WIN
Michigan State 56, Nebraska 58 [2] Nebraska 59.7% -125 +6.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$148
ROI
147.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Sacred Heart 61, Niagara 64 [3] Niagara 50.3% +147 +11.5% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$115
ROI
38.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Louisville @ Stanford Stanford 37.4% +315 +14.4% WIN
Ohio State @ Rutgers Rutgers 31.3% +335 +9.3% LOSS
Kennesaw State @ Liberty Kennesaw State 31.8% +320 +9.1% LOSS