Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-04
All Games Summary
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (40)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 47, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 82 [35] 65-87 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 154.2		 Gonzaga (95.3%)
Marquette (8-15) 57, UConn #3 (22-1) 73 [16] 56-78 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 145.0		 UConn (93.2%)
San Diego (10-15) 70, Santa Clara (20-5) 98 [28] 70-95 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET OVER 161.5		 Santa Clara (92.8%)
Seattle U (15-9) 76, Saint Mary's (20-4) 93 [17] 61-77 ✗ MAE: 15.6
O/U: 137.5		 Saint Mary's (86.1%)
Denver (9-15) 88, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 92 [4] 75-90 ✓ MAE: 7.7
O/U: 163.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (79.5%)
Jacksonville State (11-10) 69, Liberty (19-3) 78 [9] 65-74 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 134.5		 Liberty (78.5%)
Portland (11-14) 68, San Francisco (14-11) 73 [5] 64-75 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 147.2		 San Francisco (78.3%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 69, Pacific (15-10) 74 [5] 63-73 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 138.8		 Pacific (78.0%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 69, Quinnipiac (15-9) 80 [11] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 150.5		 Quinnipiac (76.1%)
Bradley (16-8) 66, Murray State (17-7) 86 [20] 74-87 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 162.2		 Murray State (75.8%)
Belmont (21-3) 67, Southern Illinois (10-13) 68 [1] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 158.8		 Belmont (75.1%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 71, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 74 [3] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 1.5
BET UNDER 159.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (75.0%)
Washington (12-11) 80, Indiana (15-8) 90 [10] 72-79 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 153.0		 Indiana (75.0%)
New Haven (10-12) 61, Central Connecticut (11-10) 72 [11] 61-70 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 129.5		 Central Connecticut (74.2%)
Indiana State (10-14) 72, Drake (12-12) 74 [2] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 149.2		 Drake (74.2%)
UTEP (8-15) 64, Florida International (11-11) 76 [12] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET UNDER 153.5		 Florida International (72.6%)
Manhattan (9-15) 66, Merrimack (14-9) 73 [7] 63-74 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 147.5		 Merrimack (71.4%)
Wagner (7-13) 60, Stonehill (9-14) 69 [9] 62-69 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 139.8		 Wagner (71.3%)
Oregon State (13-12) 67, Washington State (11-14) 81 [14] 63-78 ✓ MAE: 3.5
O/U: 140.2		 Washington State (69.9%)
Rider (3-18) 65, Siena (16-7) 74 [9] 66-68 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 135.8		 Siena (69.2%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 60, Mercyhurst (11-12) 74 [14] 62-70 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 141.5		 Mercyhurst (66.8%)
Chicago State (2-19) 55, Long Island University (14-8) 74 [19] 71-70 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 151.2		 Long Island University (66.6%)
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 61, Western Kentucky (12-10) 66 [5] 63-73 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 145.5		 Western Kentucky (66.3%)
South Florida (15-8) 106, UAB (14-8) 109 [3] 83-90 ✗ MAE: 20.8
BET OVER 163.5		 South Florida (64.6%)
Iona (14-9) 38, Marist (15-7) 83 [45] 58-69 ✗ MAE: 16.9
BET UNDER 148.5		 Marist (64.3%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 79, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 94 [15] 76-82 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 146.5		 Northern Kentucky (64.0%)
Sam Houston (16-7) 67, Middle Tennessee (11-11) 68 [1] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 157.2		 Middle Tennessee (63.6%)
Evansville (5-18) 48, Northern Iowa (14-9) 62 [14] 62-57 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 130.2		 Northern Iowa (61.8%)
UIC (13-11) 59, Valparaiso (11-12) 66 [7] 61-72 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 144.0		 Valparaiso (61.5%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 52, Delaware (6-16) 67 [15] 72-63 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 149.0		 Kennesaw State (61.0%)
Creighton (12-11) 54, Seton Hall (16-7) 56 [2] 66-67 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 143.5		 Seton Hall (60.9%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 77, Wright State (15-9) 81 [4] 78-74 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 163.0		 Wright State (60.0%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 73, Oakland (14-11) 96 [23] 77-86 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 161.2		 Oakland (59.2%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 82, Missouri State (13-9) 89 [7] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 15.4
BET OVER 134.8		 Missouri State (53.6%)
Tulsa (20-3) 67, North Texas (12-11) 72 [5] 64-69 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 138.8		 North Texas (53.4%) DOG
Sacred Heart (10-14) 78, Canisius (8-16) 82 [4] 73-68 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 141.8		 Sacred Heart (52.8%)
Fordham (12-11) 75, Richmond (13-10) 83 [8] 66-72 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 142.8		 Fordham (52.8%) DOG
Niagara (6-17) 75, Fairfield (14-10) 83 [8] 76-69 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 138.5		 Fairfield (51.8%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 66, Tulane (13-9) 69 [3] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 158.2		 Florida Atlantic (51.4%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 82, St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 85 [3] 74-74 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET OVER 143.8		 St. Francis (PA) (50.9%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
82.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
40
Avg Confidence
72.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0983
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
35
ML Win Rate
77.1%
ML Profit
$42
ML ROI
1.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
4
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$330
ROI
82.6%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
21
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
42.9%
Spread Profit
$-382
Spread ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
40
Avg Confidence
58.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1957
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
24
O/U Wins
13
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
54.2%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
3.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Bradley 66 @ Murray State 86 Murray State (75.8%) Murray State -5.5 +7.2 +12.7 +20.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
3
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
75.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$260
ROI
64.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
New Mexico State 82, Missouri State 89 [7] Missouri State 53.6% N/A N/A WIN
Tulsa 67, North Texas 72 [5] North Texas 53.4% +149 +14.9% WIN
Fordham 75, Richmond 83 [8] Fordham 52.8% N/A N/A LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 82, St. Francis (PA) 85 [3] St. Francis (PA) 50.9% +110 +5.1% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$48
ROI
48.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bradley 66, Murray State 86 [20] Murray State 75.8% -207 +11.0% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
4
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$330
ROI
82.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Tulsa 67, North Texas 72 [5] North Texas 53.4% +149 +14.9% WIN
Bradley 66, Murray State 86 [20] Murray State 75.8% -207 +11.0% WIN
Seattle U 76, Saint Mary's 93 [17] Saint Mary's 86.1% -440 +7.9% WIN
Fairleigh Dickinson 82, St. Francis (PA) 85 [3] St. Francis (PA) 50.9% +110 +5.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$198
ROI
98.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Tulsa 67, North Texas 72 [5] North Texas 53.4% +149 +14.9% WIN
Bradley 66, Murray State 86 [20] Murray State 75.8% -207 +11.0% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis IU Indianapolis 40.0% +350 +18.8% LOSS
Portland @ San Francisco Portland 21.7% +625 +8.5% LOSS
Siena @ Rider Rider 30.8% +400 +11.8% LOSS