Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-05
All Games Summary
Total Picks
19
Final results
19
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
73.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (19)
USC (17-6) 51, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 80 [29] 65-84 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 150.8		 Michigan State (82.5%)
Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 64, McNeese (18-5) 66 [2] 64-70 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 144.5		 McNeese (78.0%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 72, Nicholls (10-13) 74 [2] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 145.0		 Nicholls (74.5%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 67, Grambling (10-11) 84 [17] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 145.5		 Grambling (71.2%)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 73, New Orleans (11-13) 83 [10] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 150.8		 New Orleans (70.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 51, Alabama A&M (12-10) 71 [20] 71-67 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 136.2		 Alabama A&M (70.0%)
Harvard (12-9) 68, Dartmouth (10-10) 76 [8] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 148.2		 Harvard (69.2%)
Ohio State (14-7) 69, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 72 [3] 64-75 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 156.2		 Ohio State (67.2%)
Brown (7-13) 53, Yale (16-4) 70 [17] 79-70 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 143.2		 Yale (66.5%)
Southern (9-13) 85, Prairie View A&M (9-13) 89 [4] 78-82 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 160.8		 Southern (65.3%)
Cornell (10-10) 99, Columbia (14-7) 104 [5] 84-92 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET OVER 171.0		 Cornell (63.7%)
Alabama State (7-15) 79, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 90 [11] 81-90 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET OVER 159.8		 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (59.1%) DOG
Pennsylvania (10-10) 76, Princeton (8-14) 78 [2] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 145.5		 Princeton (58.1%)
William & Mary (14-8) 79, Charleston (15-8) 88 [9] 71-84 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 163.5		 Charleston (57.7%)
Oregon (8-14) 85, Rutgers (9-14) 88 [3] 71-68 ✗ MAE: 17.2
O/U: 139.5		 Oregon (56.8%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 67, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 80 [13] 65-74 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 145.8		 UT Rio Grande Valley (55.0%) DOG
Lamar (12-11) 52, SE Louisiana (6-17) 60 [8] 59-68 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 136.5		 SE Louisiana (53.8%) DOG
Houston Christian (8-15) 65, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 81 [16] 67-63 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 133.8		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (52.6%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 76, Green Bay (13-12) 79 [3] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 144.5		 Green Bay (50.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
19
Final results
19
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
73.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
5
Avg Confidence
62.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.6200
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
2
ML Win Rate
0.0%
ML Profit
$-200
ML ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
3
ATS Wins
0
ATS Losses
3
ATS Win Rate
0.0%
Spread Profit
$-300
Spread ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
5
Avg Confidence
55.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.5704
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
2
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$182
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Texas Southern 67 @ Grambling 84 Grambling (71.2%) Grambling -5.5 +7.1 +12.6 +17.0 COVERED
USC 51 @ Michigan State #10 80 Michigan State (82.5%) Michigan State -11.8 +7.0 +18.7 +29.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$110
ROI
36.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Incarnate Word 67, UT Rio Grande Valley 80 [13] UT Rio Grande Valley 55.0% N/A N/A WIN
Lamar 52, SE Louisiana 60 [8] SE Louisiana 53.8% N/A N/A WIN
Milwaukee 76, Green Bay 79 [3] Green Bay 50.7% +110 +4.9% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$85
ROI
28.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State Mississippi Valley State 30.0% +395 +10.8% LOSS
Yale @ Brown Brown 33.5% +325 +11.0% LOSS
Prairie View A&M @ Southern Prairie View A&M 34.7% +285 +9.9% WIN