Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-06
All Games Summary
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (29)
Central Michigan (7-16) 69, Akron (19-4) 82 [13] 70-93 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 164.5		 Akron (95.7%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 76, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 87 [11] 73-89 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 160.2		 Miami (OH) (87.8%)
Texas (14-9) 71, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 85 [14] 70-83 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 152.2		 Tennessee (79.8%)
LSU (14-8) 68, South Carolina (11-12) 78 [10] 70-78 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 145.5		 LSU (74.8%)
Air Force (3-19) 62, Utah State (19-3) 99 [37] 76-62 ✗ MAE: 11.5
O/U: 139.0		 Utah State (74.0%)
UNLV (10-12) 66, Wyoming (13-10) 98 [32] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 154.5		 Wyoming (72.0%)
Boston College (9-13) 71, NC State (17-6) 79 [8] 71-64 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 141.5		 NC State (71.1%)
Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 65, Houston #8 (20-2) 69 [4] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 142.8		 Houston (70.1%)
Penn State (10-12) 72, Michigan #2 (20-1) 74 [2] 84-69 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 169.5		 Michigan (68.9%)
Georgia (16-6) 77, Florida #17 (16-6) 92 [15] 79-93 ✓ MAE: 1.8
O/U: 172.8		 Florida (68.4%)
TCU (13-9) 100, Kansas #11 (17-5) 104 [4] 62-73 ✗ MAE: 34.5
BET UNDER 142.8		 Kansas (67.6%)
Auburn (14-8) 88, Texas A&M (17-5) 90 [2] 83-89 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 167.8		 Auburn (66.2%)
Bowling Green (14-9) 93, Kent State (17-6) 96 [3] 76-87 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET OVER 155.5		 Kent State (64.5%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 83, Ohio (13-11) 86 [3] 73-83 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 160.5		 Ohio (63.4%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 61, Toledo (12-11) 75 [14] 82-72 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 161.8		 Toledo (62.8%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 60, West Virginia (14-8) 62 [2] 57-63 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 131.8		 West Virginia (61.7%)
Georgetown (13-10) 50, DePaul (12-11) 56 [6] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 21.8
BET OVER 144.5		 DePaul (61.5%)
UCF (17-5) 76, Oklahoma State (16-6) 87 [11] 83-89 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 174.5		 Oklahoma State (60.9%)
Iowa (17-5) 67, Minnesota (11-12) 70 [3] 68-68 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET OVER 130.5		 Iowa (60.4%)
Louisville #24 (16-6) 73, Duke #4 (21-1) 84 [11] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 161.5		 Louisville (60.3%) DOG
George Washington (13-10) 72, Dayton (15-8) 79 [7] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 154.5		 Dayton (59.7%)
Ball State (7-15) 52, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 74 [22] 66-71 ✗ MAE: 13.5
O/U: 137.8		 Ball State (59.4%)
UCLA (16-7) 72, Wisconsin (16-6) 80 [8] 72-76 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 152.8		 Wisconsin (58.5%)
Lindenwood (14-10) 62, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 66 [4] 69-78 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 142.8		 SIU Edwardsville (56.2%) DOG
Nevada (16-7) 68, San Diego State (16-6) 73 [5] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 141.5		 Nevada (54.9%)
San José State (6-16) 55, Fresno State (11-11) 70 [15] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 149.2		 San José State (54.5%)
Colorado State (12-10) 70, New Mexico (18-5) 80 [10] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 143.0		 Colorado State (54.3%) DOG
Georgia Tech (11-12) 72, Syracuse (13-10) 82 [10] 69-73 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 146.5		 Georgia Tech (51.0%) DOG
Butler (13-10) 70, St. John's #22 (17-5) 84 [14] 76-77 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 162.8		 Butler (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
29
Final results
29
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
66.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1233
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
26
ML Win Rate
76.9%
ML Profit
$235
ML ROI
9.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
4
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-99
ROI
-12.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
16
ATS Wins
6
ATS Losses
10
ATS Win Rate
37.5%
Spread Profit
$-455
Spread ROI
-28.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-14.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
29
Avg Confidence
62.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3338
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
20
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
45.0%
O/U Profit
$-282
O/U ROI
-14.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-7.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-66.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Colorado State 70, New Mexico 80 [10] Colorado State 54.3% N/A N/A LOSS
Georgia Tech 72, Syracuse 82 [10] Georgia Tech 51.0% +134 +10.0% LOSS
Butler 70, St. John's 84 [14] Butler 50.3% +150 +11.9% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
4
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-99
ROI
-12.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 93, Kent State 96 [3] Kent State 64.5% -120 +12.3% WIN
Butler 70, St. John's 84 [14] Butler 50.3% +150 +11.9% LOSS
Georgia Tech 72, Syracuse 82 [10] Georgia Tech 51.0% +134 +10.0% LOSS
UNLV 66, Wyoming 98 [32] Wyoming 72.0% -195 +8.6% WIN
Lindenwood 62, SIU Edwardsville 66 [4] SIU Edwardsville 56.2% -105 +7.3% WIN
Ball State 52, Eastern Michigan 74 [22] Ball State 59.4% -120 +7.2% LOSS
San José State 55, Fresno State 70 [15] San José State 54.5% -105 +5.6% LOSS
Cincinnati 60, West Virginia 62 [2] West Virginia 61.7% -140 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-117
ROI
-38.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 93, Kent State 96 [3] Kent State 64.5% -120 +12.3% WIN
Butler 70, St. John's 84 [14] Butler 50.3% +150 +11.9% LOSS
Georgia Tech 72, Syracuse 82 [10] Georgia Tech 51.0% +134 +10.0% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Utah State @ Air Force Air Force 26.0% +1600 +20.4% LOSS
Michigan @ Penn State Penn State 31.1% +1300 +24.3% LOSS
NC State @ Boston College Boston College 28.9% +600 +15.2% LOSS