Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-07
All Games Summary
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
35
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.8%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (54)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 49, High Point (21-4) 104 [55] 67-90 ✗ MAE: 16.0
BET UNDER 162.8		 High Point (94.8%)
Kansas State (10-12) 76, Arizona #1 (22-0) 101 [25] 73-92 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 172.2		 Arizona (93.2%)
Arizona State (12-11) 76, BYU #16 (17-5) 104 [28] 68-93 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 165.8		 BYU (91.2%)
VMI (6-18) 67, East Tennessee State (17-7) 81 [14] 65-82 ✓ MAE: 1.4
O/U: 146.2		 East Tennessee State (91.1%)
The Citadel (8-15) 63, Mercer (15-8) 101 [38] 71-81 ✗ MAE: 13.9
BET OVER 147.0		 Mercer (88.9%)
Washington (12-11) 73, Purdue #12 (18-4) 81 [8] 67-87 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 151.8		 Purdue (88.7%)
Kentucky (16-7) 68, Missouri (15-7) 73 [5] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 151.5		 Kentucky (87.6%)
South Dakota (13-12) 86, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 99 [13] 71-90 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 162.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (87.0%)
Wichita State (14-9) 64, Rice (10-13) 66 [2] 65-84 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 145.2		 Wichita State (86.5%)
California (17-6) 60, Virginia #18 (19-3) 84 [24] 62-80 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 148.2		 Virginia (86.0%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 77, Samford (11-12) 82 [5] 78-86 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET OVER 154.8		 Samford (78.1%)
Rhode Island (13-9) 72, La Salle (7-16) 79 [7] 56-74 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 135.8		 Rhode Island (77.6%)
Bucknell (8-16) 55, Navy (18-6) 76 [21] 56-70 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 136.8		 Navy (77.0%)
East Carolina (7-15) 67, Temple (14-8) 75 [8] 62-76 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 143.5		 Temple (76.9%)
Utah (9-13) 73, Colorado (13-10) 85 [12] 76-86 ✓ MAE: 2.1
O/U: 162.5		 Colorado (76.2%)
Boise State (14-9) 58, Grand Canyon (15-7) 75 [17] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET OVER 139.8		 Boise State (75.8%)
Missouri State (13-9) 80, Kennesaw State (14-8) 90 [10] 72-70 ✗ MAE: 13.6
BET UNDER 152.5		 Kennesaw State (75.2%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 77, Winthrop (17-8) 81 [4] 82-85 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 166.5		 Winthrop (74.8%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 61, Radford (13-12) 80 [19] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 5.5
O/U: 148.2		 Radford (74.0%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 80, Richmond (13-10) 89 [9] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 153.5		 St. Bonaventure (72.2%)
Troy (16-8) 74, Arkansas State (14-10) 86 [12] 76-80 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 160.8		 Arkansas State (72.1%)
Alabama (15-7) 90, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 96 [6] 81-85 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 179.5		 Vanderbilt (71.4%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 85, Wofford (16-8) 97 [12] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 14.8
O/U: 153.5		 Wofford (71.2%)
Army (10-14) 76, Loyola Maryland (9-15) 84 [8] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 146.0		 Army (70.7%)
Villanova (17-5) 72, Creighton (12-11) 76 [4] 65-72 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 142.5		 Villanova (70.5%)
Providence (10-13) 98, UConn #3 (22-1) 103 [5] 75-70 ✗ MAE: 27.9
BET UNDER 152.2		 UConn (69.9%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 69, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 71 [2] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 145.5		 Youngstown State (69.0%)
Maryland (8-13) 66, Indiana (15-8) 84 [18] 75-68 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 147.5		 Indiana (67.3%)
Xavier (12-11) 65, Marquette (8-15) 66 [1] 75-81 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET UNDER 158.8		 Marquette (67.1%)
Drake (12-12) 66, Bradley (16-8) 93 [27] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 144.5		 Bradley (66.1%)
Florida International (11-11) 64, Jacksonville State (11-10) 71 [7] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 150.5		 Jacksonville State (65.1%)
Evansville (5-18) 69, Murray State (17-7) 79 [10] 74-72 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 152.5		 Murray State (64.5%)
Illinois State (15-8) 71, Valparaiso (11-12) 77 [6] 68-69 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 138.2		 Illinois State (64.3%)
Virginia Tech (16-7) 68, Stanford (14-9) 69 [1] 71-76 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 148.8		 Virginia Tech (64.0%)
American University (13-11) 62, Colgate (14-10) 64 [2] 64-73 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 148.0		 Colgate (63.4%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 65, Belmont (21-3) 78 [13] 61-72 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 137.2		 Northern Iowa (62.2%)
SMU (15-7) 70, Clemson #20 (19-4) 74 [4] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET OVER 147.5		 Clemson (61.6%)
James Madison (11-13) 64, Marshall (15-8) 66 [2] 75-83 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET OVER 153.0		 James Madison (60.7%)
Longwood (13-12) 61, UNC Asheville (11-13) 72 [11] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 148.5		 UNC Asheville (60.3%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 58, Lehigh (10-14) 66 [8] 63-70 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 137.8		 Lehigh (60.2%)
Wake Forest (11-11) 77, Miami (17-5) 81 [4] 76-80 ✓ MAE: 4.0
O/U: 157.5		 Wake Forest (58.8%)
Fordham (12-11) 58, George Mason (20-3) 67 [9] 72-62 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 134.8		 George Mason (58.5%)
UAB (14-8) 71, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 76 [5] 74-86 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 162.2		 UAB (58.4%)
VCU (17-6) 62, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 71 [9] 81-91 ✗ MAE: 19.3
O/U: 170.8		 VCU (56.6%)
UTSA (4-18) 58, Charlotte (13-10) 74 [16] 78-79 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET OVER 145.0		 Charlotte (54.6%)
Oklahoma (11-12) 53, Mississippi State (11-11) 72 [19] 78-83 ✗ MAE: 18.1
BET OVER 158.5		 Mississippi State (53.1%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 67, Furman (16-8) 78 [11] 74-76 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 146.5		 Chattanooga (52.6%) DOG
Southern Illinois (10-13) 57, UIC (13-11) 70 [13] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 147.0		 UIC (52.5%) DOG
Baylor (13-9) 60, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 70 [10] 79-70 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 155.2		 Iowa State (52.5%)
Lafayette (7-17) 67, Boston University (9-15) 83 [16] 68-74 ✗ MAE: 10.9
O/U: 142.5		 Lafayette (52.3%) DOG
Duquesne (13-10) 90, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 97 [7] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 17.5
BET OVER 149.2		 Saint Joseph's (51.8%) DOG
Ole Miss (11-11) 87, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 94 [7] 79-76 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET OVER 151.8		 Arkansas (51.7%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 64, Davidson (13-9) 79 [15] 62-71 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 136.8		 Loyola Chicago (51.4%) DOG
North Texas (12-11) 70, South Florida (15-8) 74 [4] 72-74 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 146.0		 North Texas (51.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
35
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.8%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
68.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0826
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
49
ML Win Rate
59.2%
ML Profit
$-819
ML ROI
-16.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$70
ROI
11.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
14
Wins
8
Losses
6
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$41
ROI
3.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$82
ROI
16.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
23
ATS Wins
11
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
47.8%
Spread Profit
$-200
Spread ROI
-8.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-4.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
54.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2224
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
42
O/U Wins
21
O/U Losses
21
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-191
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-200
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Missouri State 80 @ Kennesaw State 90 Kennesaw State (75.2%) Kennesaw State -5.8 +7.6 -1.8 +10.0 COVERED
La Salle 79 @ Rhode Island 72 Rhode Island (77.6%) Rhode Island -11.5 +6.6 +18.1 -7.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$70
ROI
11.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Oklahoma 53, Mississippi State 72 [19] Mississippi State 53.1% +100 +5.2% WIN
Chattanooga 67, Furman 78 [11] Chattanooga 52.6% +115 +7.9% LOSS
Southern Illinois 57, UIC 70 [13] UIC 52.5% +140 +12.5% WIN
Duquesne 90, Saint Joseph's 97 [7] Saint Joseph's 51.8% +130 +9.8% WIN
Loyola Chicago 64, Davidson 79 [15] Loyola Chicago 51.4% +110 +5.7% LOSS
North Texas 70, South Florida 74 [4] North Texas 51.2% +170 +15.5% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
14
Wins
8
Losses
6
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$41
ROI
3.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Texas 70, South Florida 74 [4] North Texas 51.2% +170 +15.5% LOSS
Troy 74, Arkansas State 86 [12] Arkansas State 72.1% -160 +13.0% WIN
Southern Illinois 57, UIC 70 [13] UIC 52.5% +140 +12.5% WIN
Florida International 64, Jacksonville State 71 [7] Jacksonville State 65.1% -125 +11.8% WIN
Army 76, Loyola Maryland 84 [8] Army 70.7% -170 +10.3% LOSS
Wake Forest 77, Miami 81 [4] Wake Forest 58.8% -105 +9.9% LOSS
Duquesne 90, Saint Joseph's 97 [7] Saint Joseph's 51.8% +130 +9.8% WIN
Missouri State 80, Kennesaw State 90 [10] Kennesaw State 75.2% -225 +8.8% WIN
Northern Iowa 65, Belmont 78 [13] Northern Iowa 62.2% -130 +7.9% LOSS
Chattanooga 67, Furman 78 [11] Chattanooga 52.6% +115 +7.9% LOSS
Alabama 90, Vanderbilt 96 [6] Vanderbilt 71.4% -200 +7.1% WIN
Western Carolina 77, Samford 82 [5] Samford 78.1% -290 +6.4% WIN
Loyola Chicago 64, Davidson 79 [15] Loyola Chicago 51.4% +110 +5.7% LOSS
Oklahoma 53, Mississippi State 72 [19] Mississippi State 53.1% +100 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$82
ROI
16.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Texas 70, South Florida 74 [4] North Texas 51.2% +170 +15.5% LOSS
Troy 74, Arkansas State 86 [12] Arkansas State 72.1% -160 +13.0% WIN
Southern Illinois 57, UIC 70 [13] UIC 52.5% +140 +12.5% WIN
Florida International 64, Jacksonville State 71 [7] Jacksonville State 65.1% -125 +11.8% WIN
Army 76, Loyola Maryland 84 [8] Army 70.7% -170 +10.3% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UConn @ Providence Providence 30.1% +450 +12.8% LOSS
Murray State @ Evansville Evansville 35.5% +335 +13.6% LOSS
The Citadel @ Mercer The Citadel 11.1% +1200 +3.8% LOSS