Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-08
All Games Summary
Total Picks
57
Final results
57
Correct picks
38
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (57)
Rutgers (9-14) 55, Illinois #5 (20-3) 81 [26] 58-85 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 149.2		 Illinois (95.3%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 72, Utah Valley (16-6) 89 [17] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 154.2		 Utah Valley (92.9%)
Binghamton (5-18) 59, Vermont (14-9) 60 [1] 61-86 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET OVER 141.0		 Vermont (91.6%)
Northwestern (10-13) 66, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 76 [10] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 0.5
O/U: 144.0		 Michigan State (88.0%)
UC San Diego (15-8) 71, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 88 [17] 72-84 ✗ MAE: 14.3
BET UNDER 166.5		 UC San Diego (86.3%)
Santa Clara (20-5) 77, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 89 [12] 68-89 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 165.8		 Gonzaga (86.3%)
Delaware (6-16) 60, Sam Houston (16-7) 72 [12] 63-74 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 144.5		 Sam Houston (82.8%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 64, UC Irvine (15-7) 74 [10] 64-79 ✓ MAE: 2.7
O/U: 142.5		 UC Irvine (81.0%)
Denver (9-15) 79, South Dakota State (11-13) 87 [8] 79-85 ✓ MAE: 1.0
BET OVER 162.0		 South Dakota State (75.1%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 37, Drexel (12-11) 56 [19] 59-70 ✗ MAE: 18.0
BET UNDER 132.2		 Drexel (75.0%)
Wagner (7-13) 69, St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 71 [2] 62-78 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 144.5		 Wagner (74.9%)
Mercyhurst (11-12) 58, Long Island University (14-8) 60 [2] 63-69 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 139.5		 Long Island University (73.5%)
Stonehill (9-14) 69, Central Connecticut (11-10) 76 [7] 61-70 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 134.8		 Central Connecticut (73.5%)
North Dakota (13-12) 79, Omaha (12-12) 90 [11] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 147.0		 Omaha (73.2%)
UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 86, UC Davis (13-9) 93 [7] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 147.2		 UC Santa Barbara (73.1%)
Utah Tech (13-11) 72, California Baptist (16-6) 84 [12] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 144.8		 California Baptist (72.8%)
Lipscomb (15-9) 83, Stetson (8-15) 91 [8] 78-74 ✗ MAE: 11.0
O/U: 151.0		 Lipscomb (72.7%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 90, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 95 [5] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 174.8		 Cal State Northridge (71.7%)
Maine (5-18) 62, UMBC (13-8) 69 [7] 59-68 ✓ MAE: 1.7
BET UNDER 133.5		 UMBC (71.5%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 63, San Diego (10-15) 83 [20] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 148.8		 San Diego (70.7%)
North Alabama (7-14) 80, Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 88 [8] 67-78 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 148.8		 Eastern Kentucky (70.4%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 66, Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 67 [1] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 149.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (70.0%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 79, Louisiana (8-16) 85 [6] 64-74 ✗ MAE: 12.8
BET UNDER 140.5		 Louisiana (69.6%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 66, Old Dominion (7-17) 70 [4] 72-79 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 149.5		 Coastal Carolina (69.3%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 80, Abilene Christian (10-11) 84 [4] 71-75 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET OVER 140.5		 Tarleton State (69.3%)
New Haven (10-12) 47, Le Moyne (11-12) 73 [26] 62-67 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 137.5		 Le Moyne (66.5%)
Idaho (13-9) 73, Montana (13-10) 79 [6] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 154.2		 Idaho (66.2%)
Chicago State (2-19) 63, Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 70 [7] 64-76 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 143.8		 Fairleigh Dickinson (65.6%)
Texas State (14-11) 70, Southern Miss (12-13) 80 [10] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 1.9
O/U: 144.5		 Southern Miss (65.4%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 71, Austin Peay (16-6) 82 [11] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 10.5
O/U: 153.8		 Florida Gulf Coast (65.0%)
Hampton (10-13) 72, Campbell (10-13) 86 [14] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Campbell (64.6%)
San Francisco (14-11) 82, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 84 [2] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 12.9
O/U: 141.2		 Loyola Marymount (64.0%)
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 70, Little Rock (9-14) 73 [3] 59-72 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 132.2		 SIU Edwardsville (62.9%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 64, New Mexico State (11-11) 80 [16] 73-82 ✓ MAE: 5.6
O/U: 154.2		 New Mexico State (62.7%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 68, Tennessee State (14-8) 90 [22] 73-69 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 145.5		 Tennessee State (62.5%)
Idaho State (10-13) 72, Northern Colorado (13-10) 85 [13] 82-86 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 155.0		 Northern Colorado (62.4%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 51, Queens University (12-11) 77 [26] 78-79 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 154.5		 Jacksonville (61.9%) DOG
Bryant (7-15) 63, UMass Lowell (9-14) 77 [14] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 143.2		 Bryant (59.9%)
Towson (13-11) 67, Hofstra (14-9) 78 [11] 59-69 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 133.2		 Towson (59.5%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 64, Elon (13-10) 69 [5] 82-76 ✗ MAE: 12.9
O/U: 158.5		 Elon (58.8%)
Oregon (8-14) 62, Ohio State (14-7) 72 [10] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 152.0		 Oregon (56.8%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 61, Eastern Illinois (9-14) 71 [10] 64-73 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 140.2		 Eastern Illinois (56.2%) DOG
New Hampshire (8-13) 76, NJIT (11-12) 80 [4] 66-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
O/U: 137.5		 NJIT (55.3%) DOG
Seattle U (15-9) 55, Oregon State (13-12) 68 [13] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 139.0		 Seattle U (54.8%)
Kansas City (4-20) 73, North Dakota State (19-5) 97 [24] 74-69 ✗ MAE: 13.0
O/U: 145.5		 North Dakota State (53.2%)
North Florida (5-18) 73, West Georgia (10-12) 85 [12] 82-88 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 164.5		 North Florida (53.1%) DOG
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 56, Liberty (19-3) 72 [16] 70-63 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 135.5		 Liberty (53.0%)
Northeastern (6-15) 78, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 87 [9] 72-72 ✗ MAE: 10.9
O/U: 142.5		 UNC Wilmington (53.0%)
Georgia State (9-15) 50, App State (16-9) 52 [2] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 22.0
BET OVER 140.2		 Georgia State (52.8%) DOG
Northern Arizona (8-15) 65, Weber State (11-12) 78 [13] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 150.8		 Northern Arizona (52.6%) DOG
Eastern Washington (5-17) 64, Montana State (13-10) 68 [4] 82-75 ✗ MAE: 12.4
O/U: 156.2		 Montana State (52.4%)
Pacific (15-10) 89, Portland (11-14) 90 [1] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 16.1
O/U: 145.0		 Portland (52.2%) DOG
Morehead State (12-11) 68, UT Martin (18-5) 76 [8] 64-70 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 136.2		 Morehead State (52.2%) DOG
Central Arkansas (13-10) 78, Bellarmine (9-13) 84 [6] 77-84 ✓ MAE: 0.5
BET OVER 154.5		 Bellarmine (51.0%) DOG
William & Mary (14-8) 70, Monmouth (11-12) 81 [11] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 156.5		 Monmouth (50.5%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 80, UTEP (8-15) 83 [3] 63-67 ✗ MAE: 16.2
BET UNDER 136.2		 UTEP (50.5%) DOG
Southern Indiana (5-17) 76, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 84 [8] 70-70 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 146.5		 Southern Indiana (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
57
Final results
57
Correct picks
38
Incorrect picks
19
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
57
Avg Confidence
68.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1142
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
47
ML Win Rate
61.7%
ML Profit
$-376
ML ROI
-8.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
18
Wins
11
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
61.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$302
ROI
16.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
35
ATS Wins
17
ATS Losses
18
ATS Win Rate
48.6%
Spread Profit
$-255
Spread ROI
-7.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-3.8%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
57
Avg Confidence
54.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1541
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
36
O/U Wins
23
O/U Losses
13
O/U Win Rate
63.9%
O/U Profit
$791
O/U ROI
22.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
1
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-109
ROI
-36.4%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$273
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
UC Riverside 66 @ Cal State Bakersfield 67 Cal State Bakersfield (70.0%) Cal State Bakersfield -3.5 +9.7 +13.2 +1.0 FAILED
St. Francis (PA) 71 @ Wagner 69 Wagner (74.9%) Wagner -7.5 +8.3 +15.8 -2.0 FAILED
Stony Brook 37 @ Drexel 56 Drexel (75.0%) Drexel -5.5 +6.0 +11.5 +19.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$115
ROI
12.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Tennessee Tech 61, Eastern Illinois 71 [10] Eastern Illinois 56.2% N/A N/A WIN
North Florida 73, West Georgia 85 [12] North Florida 53.1% +130 +11.1% LOSS
Georgia State 50, App State 52 [2] Georgia State 52.8% +105 +5.8% LOSS
Northern Arizona 65, Weber State 78 [13] Northern Arizona 52.6% +107 +6.4% LOSS
Pacific 89, Portland 90 [1] Portland 52.2% +120 +8.5% WIN
Morehead State 68, UT Martin 76 [8] Morehead State 52.2% +115 +7.4% LOSS
Central Arkansas 78, Bellarmine 84 [6] Bellarmine 51.0% +120 +7.2% WIN
William & Mary 70, Monmouth 81 [11] Monmouth 50.5% +125 +7.7% WIN
Middle Tennessee 80, UTEP 83 [3] UTEP 50.5% +150 +11.9% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
18
Wins
11
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
61.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$302
ROI
16.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
San Francisco 82, Loyola Marymount 84 [2] Loyola Marymount 64.0% -112 +13.5% WIN
UC Riverside 66, Cal State Bakersfield 67 [1] Cal State Bakersfield 70.0% -148 +12.8% WIN
Middle Tennessee 80, UTEP 83 [3] UTEP 50.5% +150 +11.9% WIN
UC Santa Barbara 86, UC Davis 93 [7] UC Santa Barbara 73.1% -177 +11.5% LOSS
Stony Brook 37, Drexel 56 [19] Drexel 75.0% -197 +11.3% WIN
North Florida 73, West Georgia 85 [12] North Florida 53.1% +130 +11.1% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 66, Old Dominion 70 [4] Coastal Carolina 69.3% -166 +9.3% LOSS
Pepperdine 63, San Diego 83 [20] San Diego 70.7% -182 +8.5% WIN
Pacific 89, Portland 90 [1] Portland 52.2% +120 +8.5% WIN
William & Mary 70, Monmouth 81 [11] Monmouth 50.5% +125 +7.7% WIN
Morehead State 68, UT Martin 76 [8] Morehead State 52.2% +115 +7.4% LOSS
Central Arkansas 78, Bellarmine 84 [6] Bellarmine 51.0% +120 +7.2% WIN
New Hampshire 76, NJIT 80 [4] NJIT 55.3% -105 +6.4% WIN
Northern Arizona 65, Weber State 78 [13] Northern Arizona 52.6% +107 +6.4% LOSS
Idaho State 72, Northern Colorado 85 [13] Northern Colorado 62.4% -140 +6.2% WIN
Chicago State 63, Fairleigh Dickinson 70 [7] Fairleigh Dickinson 65.6% -170 +5.9% WIN
Georgia State 50, App State 52 [2] Georgia State 52.8% +105 +5.8% LOSS
Florida Gulf Coast 71, Austin Peay 82 [11] Florida Gulf Coast 65.0% -165 +5.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
4
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$157
ROI
26.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
San Francisco 82, Loyola Marymount 84 [2] Loyola Marymount 64.0% -112 +13.5% WIN
UC Riverside 66, Cal State Bakersfield 67 [1] Cal State Bakersfield 70.0% -148 +12.8% WIN
Middle Tennessee 80, UTEP 83 [3] UTEP 50.5% +150 +11.9% WIN
UC Santa Barbara 86, UC Davis 93 [7] UC Santa Barbara 73.1% -177 +11.5% LOSS
Stony Brook 37, Drexel 56 [19] Drexel 75.0% -197 +11.3% WIN
North Florida 73, West Georgia 85 [12] North Florida 53.1% +130 +11.1% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$325
ROI
108.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lipscomb @ Stetson Stetson 27.3% +525 +12.0% WIN
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 47.0% +210 +15.9% LOSS
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga Santa Clara 13.7% +850 +3.7% LOSS