Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-09
All Games Summary
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (14)
Cleveland State (10-14) 72, Oakland (14-11) 97 [25] 76-85 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 169.5		 Oakland (85.4%)
Niagara (6-17) 53, Iona (14-9) 71 [18] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 140.5		 Iona (79.1%)
Rider (3-18) 62, Fairfield (14-10) 68 [6] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 144.8		 Fairfield (75.9%)
UNLV (10-12) 62, Colorado State (12-10) 70 [8] 63-70 ✓ MAE: 0.5
BET UNDER 151.5		 Colorado State (74.8%)
Manhattan (9-15) 64, Canisius (8-16) 70 [6] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 145.0		 Manhattan (73.5%)
Siena (16-7) 59, Merrimack (14-9) 63 [4] 57-65 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 133.8		 Siena (70.2%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 59, Green Bay (13-12) 75 [16] 72-81 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 157.0		 Green Bay (69.5%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 67, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 85 [18] 73-83 ✗ MAE: 14.2
O/U: 157.5		 Milwaukee (64.3%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 72, Marist (15-7) 76 [4] 64-67 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 142.0		 Marist (60.4%)
Minnesota (11-12) 69, USC (17-6) 70 [1] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 147.0		 Minnesota (59.0%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 82, Wright State (15-9) 84 [2] 80-75 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 148.5		 Wright State (57.2%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 65, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 70 [5] 66-68 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 141.5		 Mount St. Mary's (56.5%) DOG
Toledo (12-11) 73, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 87 [14] 76-83 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 166.8		 Toledo (53.7%)
Bowling Green (14-9) 67, Akron (19-4) 77 [10] 87-87 ✗ MAE: 14.8
BET OVER 163.8		 Bowling Green (53.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
69.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1539
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
64.3%
ML Profit
$-137
ML ROI
-9.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-113
ROI
-37.7%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
7
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
3
ATS Win Rate
57.1%
Spread Profit
$64
Spread ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
55.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2911
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
12
O/U Wins
10
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
83.3%
O/U Profit
$709
O/U ROI
59.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+30.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 67, Akron 77 [10] Bowling Green 53.4% +125 +10.5% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-113
ROI
-37.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 67, Akron 77 [10] Bowling Green 53.4% +125 +10.5% LOSS
Milwaukee 67, Northern Kentucky 85 [18] Milwaukee 64.3% -147 +7.1% LOSS
Saint Peter's 65, Mount St. Mary's 70 [5] Mount St. Mary's 56.5% -115 +5.4% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 67, Akron 77 [10] Bowling Green 53.4% +125 +10.5% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Niagara @ Iona Niagara 20.9% +525 +5.6% LOSS
Cleveland State @ Oakland Cleveland State 14.6% +775 +3.7% LOSS
Marist @ Sacred Heart Sacred Heart 39.6% +220 +9.7% LOSS