Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-11
All Games Summary
Total Picks
20
Final results
20
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (20)
Canisius (8-16) 48, Iona (14-9) 74 [26] 67-75 ✗ MAE: 10.1
O/U: 140.8		 Iona (79.7%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 83, Milwaukee (9-16) 95 [12] 72-83 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 165.8		 Milwaukee (74.4%)
North Texas (12-11) 67, Wichita State (14-9) 78 [11] 62-73 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 135.5		 Wichita State (73.4%)
Niagara (6-17) 70, Manhattan (9-15) 79 [9] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 141.0		 Manhattan (72.1%)
Richmond (13-10) 65, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 67 [2] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 149.8		 Richmond (71.9%)
Rider (3-18) 49, Marist (15-7) 71 [22] 66-61 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 131.5		 Marist (70.0%)
Robert Morris (15-10) 74, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 79 [5] 67-79 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 146.5		 Robert Morris (69.5%)
Cleveland State (10-14) 84, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 94 [10] 75-81 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 161.2		 Detroit Mercy (69.5%)
East Carolina (7-15) 85, UAB (14-8) 87 [2] 79-73 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET OVER 150.5		 UAB (65.0%)
Oakland (14-11) 84, Wright State (15-9) 94 [10] 77-84 ✗ MAE: 8.7
O/U: 161.5		 Oakland (61.9%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 72, UCF (17-5) 73 [1] 68-78 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 150.5		 UCF (61.0%)
Memphis (10-11) 78, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 89 [11] 73-77 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 152.8		 Florida Atlantic (59.6%)
Merrimack (14-9) 63, Saint Peter's (12-8) 76 [13] 58-67 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 133.2		 Saint Peter's (59.5%)
Iowa (17-5) 69, Illinois #5 (20-3) 75 [6] 64-70 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 142.8		 Iowa (59.4%) DOG
Northwestern (10-13) 75, Rutgers (9-14) 77 [2] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 144.5		 Northwestern (58.8%)
Rice (10-13) 73, Charlotte (13-10) 74 [1] 74-79 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 137.2		 Rice (56.8%) DOG
Sacred Heart (10-14) 60, Quinnipiac (15-9) 70 [10] 78-72 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 152.8		 Quinnipiac (56.0%)
Ohio State (14-7) 74, Washington (12-11) 81 [7] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 155.8		 Washington (55.4%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 50, Siena (16-7) 67 [17] 64-71 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 139.8		 Mount St. Mary's (51.8%) DOG
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 78, Green Bay (13-12) 80 [2] 75-78 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET OVER 144.2		 Green Bay (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
20
Final results
20
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
20
Avg Confidence
68.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1152
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
19
ML Win Rate
68.4%
ML Profit
$-37
ML ROI
-1.9%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-93
ROI
-18.6%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
13
ATS Wins
8
ATS Losses
5
ATS Win Rate
61.5%
Spread Profit
$227
Spread ROI
17.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+9.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
20
Avg Confidence
57.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1783
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
13
O/U Wins
7
O/U Losses
6
O/U Win Rate
53.8%
O/U Profit
$36
O/U ROI
2.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$30
ROI
15.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mount St. Mary's 50, Siena 67 [17] Mount St. Mary's 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Northern Kentucky 78, Green Bay 80 [2] Green Bay 50.5% +130 +8.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-93
ROI
-18.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mount St. Mary's 50, Siena 67 [17] Mount St. Mary's 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Northern Kentucky 78, Green Bay 80 [2] Green Bay 50.5% +130 +8.5% WIN
Iowa 69, Illinois 75 [6] Iowa 59.4% -115 +8.3% LOSS
Rice 73, Charlotte 74 [1] Rice 56.8% -105 +7.9% LOSS
Memphis 78, Florida Atlantic 89 [11] Florida Atlantic 59.6% -130 +5.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mount St. Mary's 50, Siena 67 [17] Mount St. Mary's 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marist @ Rider Rider 30.0% +475 +13.5% LOSS
UAB @ East Carolina East Carolina 35.0% +330 +12.8% LOSS
Canisius @ Iona Canisius 20.3% +575 +6.1% LOSS